steve@WoahIsThatSteve
$FIG feels like a home run buy on Thursday's IPO - sharing for clarity of thought + to invite critique.
1. Key Business Stats.
Figma posted $45 million net income in Q1 of 2025 with 46% YoY growth and 85%~ gross margins.
Figma is used by 95% (!) of the Fortune 500.
This screams strong network effects and while it's a design tool play, based off of their new AI features being rolled out + the market signal of Lovable (although this could be a lie) claiming $100M ARR, Figma's in prime position to capitalize on AI tooling.
2. Valuation Napkin Math.
Using Adobe’s P/E (~27x), Figma’s $180M projected income supports a "true value" of $45–50B — implying 2–3x upside if profitability scales. IPO pricing is targeting a ~$18 billion market cap and based off of Adobe's failed $20 billion acquisition price and the comparison with Adobe's market cap, my gut says that Figma's open IPO price is severely undervalued.
3. Recent SaaS IPOs.
Recent SaaS IPOs (Rubrik, CoreWeave, ServiceTitan) have shown 40–200%+ week-one returns.
Figma is one of the few IPOs this cycle with profitability + growth, making it a top-tier candidate for post-IPO price discovery and rerating.
4. Portfolio Construction
I see Figma as a long term buy/hold. I aim to allocate 5% of my portfolio at IPO open and 5% DCA'd over the next few weeks to gain exposure to the upside and IPO bump but also hedge my risk if there's a big IPO bubble burst. Since it's a long term buy for me, I'll still ride out the volatility until it hits what I deem it to be the true value, but I'll trade upside reward for lower risk.
