Salad A Hoshle

#BREAKING Analysis: Mogadishu moves to oust Puntland leader Deni Somali federal troops backed by heavily-armed technicals, APCs and assorted clan militias are heading towards Puntland in an apparent bid to overthrow the elected regional President Sa'id A. Deni. Buoyed by the success in ousting President Abdiaziz Laftagareen of South West State, Somali President Hassan Sheikh is turning his sights on Puntland and Jubaland. Already, HSM has mobilised Deni's opponents, created an interim 'government-in-exile' based in Mogadishu that is coordinating political action, and the planned military takeover of Puntland to remove Deni. The strategy to oust Deni has been in the works for sometime now and is closely being coordinated with Turkey which is providing intelligence, equipment and logistical support to the operation (just as happened in South West State). Turkish Ambassador to Somalia met Deni recently and tried to pressure him to make a deal with HSM. Turkey sees Puntland as a big prize owing to its strategic position, vast coastline, relative peace, blue economy resource potential. The Puntland coast is rich in tuna and possibly significant hydrocarbon reserves. The port of Bosaso is also a key infrastructure/asset coveted by the Turks. The port is leased to the UAE's DP World. Gaining a foothold in Puntland locks out the Emiratis and moves Ankara closer to another equally prized target - Somaliland. Turkey is planning to establish a naval military outpost in Laas Qorey. The recognition by Israel of Somaliland has galvanised Turkey into fast-tracking its plan to help HSM seize the Puntland and oust Deni. Turkey's preference for a centralised Somalia is clear. Dismantling the federal system is now a top agenda. In HSM, Ankara finds a believer and a willing executioner. From a counter-terrorism and counterinsurgency perspective, the prospect of a new conflict and turmoil in Puntland could prove disastrous - wiping out all the gains made recently by Puntland against jihadist groups. A blue-on-blue violence is precisely what Daesh/ISIS and Al-Shabaab need to regroup.

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