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حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani
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حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani
@hsnhasankhani
علاقمند به (A(gent) B(ased) M(odeling کانال: https://t.co/RYp2bdDaMf
جمهوری اسلامی ایران Katılım Temmuz 2018
260 Takip Edilen3.3K Takipçiler
انسداد تنگه هرمز، اقتصادهای مبتنی بر گردشگری را هم به تدریج ویران خواهد کرد.
John Kemp@JKempEnergy
Global airlines at the centre of fuel crisis Global markets for jet fuel have been more severely disrupted than gasoline or diesel by the war between the United States and Iran, even though jet fuel accounts for less than one-tenth of worldwide oil consumption. Jet fuel prices have doubled since January, roughly twice as fast as the increase in front-month Brent futures over the same period, reflecting the increasing scarcity of aviation fuel and fears the shortage will worsen further ...
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شوک عرضه نفت ناشی از انسداد تنگه هرمز، بهزودی تبدیل به یک رکود تورمی عمیق در کل دنیا خواهد شد. حتی اگر تنگه همین امروز بازگشایی شود.
Rosemary Kelanic@RKelanic
Best low-jargon analysis explaining why the Strait of Hormuz crisis is a slow-motion train wreck for the global economy. TL;DR: *Even if* Hormuz reopens *tomorrow*, economic disaster is all but inevitable due to lost oil supply. That’s what Trump’s war has done. Because of physical oil shortages emerging on time delay, the world will need to cut oil consumption massively — on the order of what a Covid-19 global recession caused. Why a recession? Recessions reduce oil consumption, due to lower levels of economic activity. When economies boom, oil consumption increases. When economies suffer, oil consumption falls. We are facing recession-level consumption cuts just due to lost supply — and that’s not even factoring in the additional economic damage from high prices! (Paul Krugman, the Nobel-winning economist, has argued the same on his substack.) Because people can’t quickly decrease oil consumption — they live where they live, own the car they own, and have to keep driving to work — high oil prices cause them to decrease spending on *everything else.* Huge demand shock, terrible for economies. High oil prices also increase inflation as we’re all learning viscerally in real time. So the cost of all those essentials — food, clothing, etc — increases, too. This global economic disaster was completely avoidable — and avoided, until Trump chose to attack Iran, foolishly believing victory would be costless and quick. The Iran War should discredit the fallacy that we can bomb Iran into submission at low cost. We can’t. The best/worst news is: we didn’t need to attack Iran at all — which means the U.S. can simply. stop. fighting. Iran never was — and still isn’t — an imminent threat to the United States. It can’t reach the U.S. homeland and was deterred from attacking the Persian Gulf until Trump kicked this mess off. Iran has played tit-for-tat all along, reciprocating attack with attack, ceasefire for ceasefire. Iran was even willing to reopen Hormuz — until Trump refused to lift his blockade in exchange. Trump hates to lose, but he must put the country ahead of his pride, cut his losses, and agree to a deal that reopens Hormuz completely — including from his own blockade. The economic damage will only compound the longer this goes on. @defpriorities hfir.com/p/wctw-the-oil…
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عملیات «خشم اقتصادی» هم دقیقا مثل عملیات «خشم حماسی» به یک «فضاحت تمام عیار» برای رژیم ترامپ تبدیل خواهد شد.
ابزارهای پیچیده نظام مالی رژیم آمریکا در مقابل مردم ایران کم اثر شده، و چارهای جز روی آوردن به بربریت و توحش ندارند.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent@SecScottBessent
As @POTUS has made clear, the United States Navy will continue the blockade of Iranian ports. In a matter of days, Kharg Island storage will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in. Constraining Iran’s maritime trade directly targets the regime’s primary revenue lifelines. The @USTreasury will continue to apply maximum pressure through Economic Fury to systematically degrade Tehran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds. Any person or vessel facilitating these flows—through covert trade and finance—risks exposure to U.S. sanctions. We continue to freeze the funds stolen by the corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran.
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ماجرای انسداد تنگه هرمز فقط نفت نیست.
گرانی کود کشاورزان آمریکایی رو بیچاره میکنه.
zerohedge@zerohedge
70% Of US Farmers Say That They Won't Be Able To Buy All The Fertilizer They Need In 2026 zerohedge.com/geopolitical/7…
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اماراتیها تازه کمکم دارند میفهمند که مزدوری برای امریکا عاقبت خوشی نداره.
البته بنظرم کمی دیر فهمیدند.
Abdulkhaleq Abdulla@Abdulkhaleq_UAE
هذا ما قلته لرويترز اليوم: لم تعد الامارات بحاجة لأمريكا كي تدافع عنها فقد اكدت خلال العدوان الإيراني انها قادرة الدفاع عن نفسها بجدارة، ما تحتاجه الإمارات هو اقتناء افضل وأحدث ما لدى امريكا من اسلحة فقط لذلك حان وقت التفكير في اغلاق القواعد الأمريكية فهي عبء وليس رصيد استراتيجي
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بر اساس برآوردها از ابتدای جنگ، روزانه ۶۰۰ میلیون دلار درآمد ازدست رفته فقط ناشی از کاهش گردشگری به شیخ نشین امارات تحمیل شده. در مجموع چیزی بیش از ۳۰ میلیارد دلار!
مزدوری برای امریکا و صهیونیزم عاقبت دردناکی داره.
Adamu B. Garba II, Msc, MNIIA, FIDPM@adamugarba
Seems like the UAE’s so-called loyalty to the coalition of the U.S. and Israel forces against Iran is being thrown under the bus. First, the asked the U.S. to vacate their military bases from their country, under the guise of being “capable of defending their country, all they need is American weapons not American presence “ They said American presence is a burden to their country, not an asset. Secondly, they’re now running out of money. According to WSJ, they asking to the U.S. to either open dollar credit line for them, since they’re running out of cash, or their next oil sells will be in yuan. The UAE suffers so much damage, beyond repair. That is the country that just last year around this time, their inbound people traffic topped 95 million, a ‘connectopgrahic” country, “to borrow @paragkhanna” , but today, nearly zero inflow of traffic to their country. It was estimated that the UAE was losing $600 million everyday from economic tourists revenue alone since the beginning of this war. Yet, the continued their grandstanding, intransigent rhetoric against Iran, its direct neighbor, in favor of the party that is thousands of miles away from it. Now, they’re paying the price, and it seems like, that party they turned to may do very little to help them. Lesson: no matter what, have an understanding situation with your neighbors. Never be a puppet to an external influence. In geopolitics, geography is the ultimate destiny, and every nation is its prisoner. Adamu Garba II
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دوران پیشرفت مبتنیبر نظامیگری آمریکا تمام شده. حتی اگر برخی اعراب جاهل قدرت درکش را نداشته باشند.
عبدالله بن زايد@ABZayed
The Iran war has neither derailed nor stalled the Gulf's progress Michael R Bloomberg The National thenationalnews.com/opinion/commen…
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حقیقت، پایدار و باطل، از بین رفتنیاست. فریبکاری و دغلبازی ترامپ چندان دوام نخواهد داشت.
HealthRanger@HealthRanger
To those who are now foolishly celebrating the "complete opening" of the Strait of Hormuz... have you learned nothing? The U.S. says it won't stop its blockade of Iranian ports. And Iran says its "opening" has multiple conditions, none of which the U.S. will likely agree to. Those conditions include paying tolls, routing all ships through the northern part of the strait that's closer to Iran, and Iran maintaining the choice of which ships are allowed to pass vs. those that are not allowed. (This gives Iran total control over the strait, yet again.) Furthermore, the entire duration of this announcement is only through the end of the current "ceasefire" which ends next Tuesday. None of this equates to "completely open" at all. If you still believe the hype news media, or Trump's tweets, you are stupid.
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شاید از معدود حرفهای حساب ترامپ در عمرش همین دو کلمه بود: «تنگهی ایران».
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz
I’m concerned that, in this round, Iran came out with the upper hand. It demonstrated not only its ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, which it effectively controls, but also its willingness to keep it closed until conditions aligned with its interests, while refusing to yield to U.S. demands. Only after pressure from President Trump on the Israeli Prime Minister, and the subsequent ceasefire, was the strait reopened in line with the commitments tied to that agreement. The takeaway from this episode is clear: Iran not only holds leverage over the strait, but any future arrangement with Tehran will have to be credibly enforced. Otherwise, the “Hormuz card” can and likely will be played again. Iran is not entering the next round from a position of weakness. From Tehran’s perspective, it may have made tactical concessions, since it is clear that even any closure of the strait in the coming weeks, given the volume of tanker traffic, would inflict significant pain on global markets. but strategically it reinforced its core message: it sets the terms in this arena and will not accept dictates in ita view, from outside powers, And if Israel were to violate the ceasefire, the strait would likely be closed again. This development should serve as a reminder to the administration that this is not a simple winner-takes-all outcome. From Iran’s perspective, this is a negotiation, one it enters from a position of strength. It's really became the "strait of Iran", that were open before the war unfortunately. #Iran
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آقای پزشکیان عزیز، اگر این اراذل را برکنار نکنید تمام دستاوردهای جهاد مقدس کشور نابود خواهند شد!
@drpezeshkian
علی اصغر شفیعیان@shafieian1355
وزیر امور خارجه جمهوری اسلامی ایران تصمیم نظام را اعلام کرده است؛ همچون گذشته، همچون آینده.
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حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani retweetledi
با دو جبهه در جنگ هستیم:
۱. جبهه غرب با زیرساخت نظامی اش به رهبری آمریکا
۲. جبهه غربگرا در داخل با زیرساخت فکری
در جنگ سخت و جبهه نظامی پیروزیم. اگر در جبهه دوم یعنی زیرساخت فکری غرب و غربگرایان در داخل کشور همزمان به عملیات و روشنگری نپردازیم متاسفانه پیروزی کامل نخواهد شد.
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همین واکنشهای دشمن نشون میده که «هرگز» نباید ابزار تنگه هرمز از دست نیروهای مسلح توانمند جمهوری اسلامی ایران خارج بشه.
The White House@WhiteHouse
"IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!" - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸
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تنگه هرمز برخلاف میل رژیم ترامپ در کنترل جمهوری اسلامی ایران باقی خواهد ماند.
Financial Times@FT
US oil bosses warn Trump to stand firm against Iran’s Hormuz toll ft.trib.al/FEsHnkz
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جرم همصدایی و همنوایی با اتاق جنگ روانی دشمن به هر شکلی و با هر بهانهای، کمتر از خلبانان و تفنگداران وحشی امریکایی ـ صهیونی و قاتلان کودکان معصوم میناب نیست!
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حدود 50 روزه که 165 مادر داغدار هرشب تاصبح کنار مزار بچه های پرپر شده شون میخوابند. بعد فرومایگانی در این سرزمین از اسم مذاکره با جنایتکار، کیفور میشن!
خدایا چطور میشه اینهمه بی شرف بود؟!
حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani@hsnhasankhani
خدا رحمت کنه رهبر شهیدمون رو، میفرمود مذاکره با آمریکا شرافتمندانه و عاقلانه نیست یعنی اینکه: اگر شخصی به ناموست (وطنت) تجاوز کرد، و بعد اومد گفت برای تجاوز نکردن بیشتر باید باج سیبیل بدی، اگر تو احساس ارضا شدن پیدا کردی و مثل محمود صادقی خرکیف شدی، شرافت و عقلانیت نداری!
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خدا رحمت کنه رهبر شهیدمون رو، میفرمود مذاکره با آمریکا شرافتمندانه و عاقلانه نیست یعنی اینکه:
اگر شخصی به ناموست (وطنت) تجاوز کرد، و بعد اومد گفت برای تجاوز نکردن بیشتر باید باج سیبیل بدی، اگر تو احساس ارضا شدن پیدا کردی و مثل محمود صادقی خرکیف شدی، شرافت و عقلانیت نداری!
محمود صادقی@mah_sadeghi
The Islamabad talks were a major taboo-breaker: senior officials from the IR Iran and the United States met and spoke directly for the first time in 47 years. If the next round of talks takes place in Tehran and Washington, the chances of success will be much higher.
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دقیقا همان کارزار زمزمه استوارت لووی در سال ۲۰۰۵:
Clash Report@clashreport
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: We are partnering with our Gulf allies. They are much more willing to share the bank accounts of members of the Iranian regime. We are reaching out to banks, including Chinese banks. Any Iranian goods purchases are forbidden. We will press for secondary sanctions if there’s a problem.
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قیمت آتی (کاغذی)، قیمت نفت نیست. قیمت قراردادی مرتبط با نفت است.
قیمت نفت همان قیمت هاب فیزیکی است.
Nic@nicrypto
"Oil is below $100." That's the Brent futures price for June delivery. A financial contract. Physical Forties crude (actual barrels, prompt delivery), hit $148 this week, an all-time record. Those are the prices refineries and traders are actually paying in the real world. That's a $50 gap between the headline price and the physical price. The dislocation between the paper oil price and the physical oil price has never been greater. The US Interior Secretary confirmed the government has discussed using futures market intervention to suppress oil prices. Coincidence or not?
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بکارگیری کلیدواژه «ابرتورم»، بخشی از جنگ روانی دشمن در جنگ فعلی علیه مردم و جمهوری اسلامی ایران است.
از کنار این شیطنتهای رسانهای نباید ساده عبور کرد.
روزنامه دنیای اقتصاد@deghtesad
پیشبینی تورم ۱۴۰۵ در سه سناریو ۱. توافق: تورم ۴۹ درصد (خوشبینانهترین حالت) ۲. نه جنگ، نه صلح: تورم نقطهبهنقطه ۶۷ درصد ۳. تداوم جنگ: سقوط به ابرتورم ۱۲۳ درصدی! (۱/۳)
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حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani retweetledi
بازداشت یوسف عزیزی که کاری بجز تحلیل و پژوهش انجام نداده، فقط شکست امریکا رو عمیقنر میکنه.
#freeYousofAzizi
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