hummusgoat
233 posts
hummusgoat
@hummusgoatee
L/S, Semis, China, China semis
Katılım Aralık 2014
220 Takip Edilen51 Takipçiler
@rubicon59 Not exactly directly levered to memory nor CPU prices. Should benefit from more DIMM shipments but has to deal with mix shift to NVDA LPDDR designs, new CPU platform timings, memory company inventories of their chips etc.
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Regardless of the backdrop (there is always bull markets going on)
I will never understand why some people just NEED to be so contrarian across their entire portfolio
Like do you see some of these numbers?
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@bucketshopcap Chicken and egg problem. Had to deploy boatloads of AUM to spread the huge infra cost drag… by expensively poaching PMs and creating even more cost drag. Performance before costs wasn’t atrocious, just never scaled to the ambitions the cost base demanded.
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The Jain Global takes are getting dumb. The reality is scaling a MM HF is incredibly difficult. There is a labor problem on top of a returns problem- only so many ppl skilled at producing consistent beta/factor neutral returns stream & the strategy is incredibly crowded.
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At this pace, the startlist of the Giro d’Italia will be worse than the GP Jef Scherens Leuven.
Jonas Vingegaard should absolutely clean this race, even if he start with a 5-minute deficit to the competition. 🤷♂️
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@NickNemo17 Grandfathered in lower fees on shittier returns 🙈
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Lesson for early LPs to start-up pods shops
You are the fool. You subsidize the build
And take all the risk for what ?
Bloomberg@business
Bobby Jain and Millennium have struck a deal that will see his eponymous firm return all external cash and manage money exclusively for his former boss’s hedge fund empire bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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🤣🤣🤣🤣
Dario is applying what he learned at Baidu
virushuo@virushuo
Anthropic这个公司荒唐程度真的只有百度能与之相比了
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@ContrarianCurse Non-AI also coming back to life because they are AI now 🙈
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$SNPS y'all were short this as funding with the software adjacency huh
Anyways. Let's be clear. This is levered to R&D/design activity. Basically every hyper is making money hand over fist and pursuing new internal programs. We are inning 1 of edge presence for AI. Every semis company is making money hand over fist in one of the most ruthlessly competitive industries in the world where R&D in the life blood. Electrical engineers are going to be like AI engineers.
Every foundry is off the mat and soaring. INTC prob gunna need that IP. $ANSS likely going to inflect on systems tailwinds + rest of end markets inflecting/firm. Mgmt was prob being conservative after they blew up. I doubt Jensen is stupid where he bought these shares
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Intel is still cheap on price/book. My target of 2X GloFo P/B stands.
And thats just the fabs. I capitulate that products is no longer a zero.
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@ContrarianCurse no top until dozens of junk chinese analog companies try to IPO
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Up 280% on 35s out to August. Not selling yet. 18% of my port
x.com/ContrarianCurs…
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse
$STM. Nice series of tailwinds here >cyclical trough, capex down by half, revs down 40%, 15pt of GM lost post EV bust. Company shutting down some old shitty factories will provide a lift to GMs alone, lead times stabilized, inventories cleaner as per rest of analog >IDM so you'll get a natural rip as utilization recovers with price. >half the biz is Auto/Industrials, which I do believe will continue to recover. STM32 ecosystem is stable, 1.5m devs. >25% Personal electronics which is challenged, however 17.7% of revs is Apple, which I believe will massively outperform other consumer hardware >Ramping Crolles PIC100 photonics Foundry build out w/ GFS, 1.6T capable to potentially supply large hyperscale customer needs direct. Built with 2b of Europes Chip Act money >15% is power semis SiC/GaN needed for 800v Archs. Compact, performant packages, named ecosystem partner with NVDA. Company guiding $230m SAM per GW of compute. $1b total AI exposure in 27. 17x 27 numbers. People never get the cyclical part of margin recovery correct and BBG has 39% by 28, will be faster than that. Biggest swing is if the industrial/auto recovery can sustain. Definitely big upside to numbers from the photonics exposure and power, which will pretty well come together. Hard to know where GTC design wins land, but expectations here are lower than IFX for sure. Prolonged higher gas prices may bring some renewed interest in EVs and give a boost in sentiment if that can flow through to delivery numbers NT
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@jojo_capital And this is on calendar year returns… wonder how crazy the monthly and daily are…
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Reading some fund letters and man there are some SM out there with heart attack type returns every year
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@junkbondinvest Short term memory strikes again. Not enough people got burned on the 2021 CAR squeeze
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Anyone following the Avis situation?
Pentwater 22% + TRS synthetics + SRS 49% = >100% of float owned. 54% of float short.
Stock doubles on that alone: ~$100 to $200.
Then Iran hits:
> Domestic travel substitution -> more rental days
> Crude up -> residuals up -> DPU up (biggest line on the P&L)
> Ceasefire leads to risk-on -> equity raise window wide open
Stock 300%+ in 1 month. Bonds follow.
$CAR
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@Srasgon Should’ve built inventory in advance. No risk of obsolescence! 😅
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@insane_analyst Might not be worth the brain damage. Just needs OAI to get in there like Bytedance did for Cambricon to get moving.
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lol $CBRS
43% gross margin, 86% of revenue to middle east "customers" that get massive warrants.
OpenAI and AWS also got warrants.
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@insane_analyst Smells like trough cycle Chinese analog gross margins
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Original Cerebras S-1: 35% hardware gross margin
Today Cerebras S-1: 42%
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