AA Tariq

Freestyle in Germany’s deepest pool 📹 Jaie Southern-petty/

@gurgavin ~70% of the AI buildout capex is being funded by hyper scalers. In aggregate they generated ~ $600bn in operating cash flow in the latest reporting period. Yahoos income was advertising in a nascent largely unprofitable space (the internet). Nvidia is not Yahoo.

DURING THE DOT COM BUBBLE EVERYONE CALLED YAHOO THE SAFE BET WHAT THEY MISSED YAHOO’S CLIENTS WERE THE DOT COM COMPANIES. THE ONES WITH NO PATH TO PROFITABILITY THEY COLLAPSED, YAHOO COLLAPSED WITH THEM SAME THING IS HAPPENING IN AI. EVERYONE RUSHING TO THE ‘SAFE’ INFRASTRUCTURE PLAYS. GPUS, CLOUD, APIS BUT WHO’S PAYING THOSE BILLS? AI STARTUPS WITH NO REAL REVENUE, NO PROFITABILITY, AND A VC CHECK THAT WON’T LAST FOREVER. FUNDING DRIES UP. DOMINOES FALL. SO WHO ALL IS YAHOO THIS TIME? (YOU ALREADY KNOW)

@alojoh Agreed . The one thing I would add though is IMHO investing like this makes more sense when you have $1m+ in your account. Very difficult to get from say $50k to $1m without some high conviction quality moonshot bets.

Nvidia update: Our full deep dive and updated outlook from the analysts who have been producing for the last 2.5 years the most accurate Nvidia forecasts globally. Must read for every serious Nvidia investor. aj-investment-research.ghost.io/nvidia-nvda-q1…

@alojoh Worse than Motley Fool?

Probably one of the dumbest investing related accounts on X. You block that account and your returns improve. The inventory is rising because of an enormous increase in business volume. Nvidia just announced the largest sequential revenue increase ever, of any company, ever.

@SPCX100T ~ 95% of US listed companies have had a 50% retracement of share price at one point or another. SpaceX (despite being excellent and a long term winner) will probably as well.

It is a steal if you are able to get SpaceX $SPCX under a $2T valuation. Mark my words.

@garyblack00 TSLA is not for the faint of either long or short hearts.

In shorting stocks, it’s far better to short a company with deteriorating fundamentals than a rich valuation. Deteriorating fundamentals mean a bad business model where volumes are declining, or there’s no innovation, or management can’t execute, or there’s a loss in pricing power because of excess competition and a lack of differentiated products. In my experience there are too many PMs and analysts in the industry with mainly financial backgrounds who pay little or no attention to fundamentals and rely instead on valuations and short term estimate trends to develop short ideas rather than try to determine whether a company with a hot new product can turn around stagnating comps when rising comps are what drives the stock. Over and over again, getting a company’s fundamentals right beats valuation insight. We would not short $TSLA even though its base business (EVs) seems to be deteriorating (2026 will be third consecutive down year for deliveries) while the overall EV industry is growing at 20-25% per year in units. TSLA mgmt’s strategy to use zero interest rate and promotional incentives instead of communicating its competitive advantages directly to consumers is clearly not working but with generalized unsupervised autonomy technology about to transform the industry, TSLA is likely to offset declines in its base EV business with new autonomous revenue streams. While TSLA’s 2026 P/E of 210x seems way extended vs +35% long-term earnings growth, we would not short TSLA stock on what are largely valuation grounds.

@aleabitoreddit This is exactly why Vulcan Elements will be a successful IPO once it comes to market.

Who could have thought China was holding all the cards over humanoid mass production? Really if America sees a future in $TSLA or Figure robotics programs. Maybe it’s time to start pouring more funding sovereign rare earths supply chains. Whatever we’re doing now isnt enough.

Bond markets are flashing red. Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%. This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

Morgan Stanley recently published a bottom-up model on hyperscaler datacenter CAPEX spending. A 1GW NVDA Vera Rubin datacenter costs $41bn. A 1GW Trainium3 cluster costs $15bn. Networking sits at 19-23% of every build. That is $6-8bn per GW. This is the photonics opportunity. Here is a list of stocks that benefit the most in each generation: Gen 1 – Pluggable Optics (ongoing) $AAOI – Highest beta of the bunch. $1bn 2026 revenue guide is 119% growth, $324M in orders booked in 30 days, capacity going from 90K to 500K units per month by year-end. Already a multi-bagger and still has operational leverage ahead. $LITE – The EML monopoly. Only supplier shipping 200G/lane at volume. NVDA invested $2bn. Orders filling capacity through 2028. Already up 1,100%+ in 12 months but the FY2027 and FY2028 revenue ramp still has not been fully priced. $COHR – Full-stack vertical integration. NVDA invested $2bn same day as LITE. InP sold out through 2027. Datacenter segment growing 80%+ YoY. Margin expansion ahead as SiPh and InP mix shifts. $CRDO – Signal chain pure-play. 224G SerDes captures every speed transition. Just acquired DustPhotonics in April 2026 to bring SiPh PIC in-house, expanding directly into CPO. $GLW – NVDA partnership May 6 expanding US optical connectivity capacity 10x. $6bn Meta cable project separately. AI datacenters need 36x more fiber than CPU racks. Multi-decade optical franchise repricing on AI. $CIEN – Scale-across DCI play. WaveLogic 6 at 1.6T per wavelength coherent. As AI clusters span multiple buildings and campuses, $CIEN captures the inter-DC bandwidth that no one else in this list does. Gen 2 – Co-Packaged Optics (2026 to 2028) When Vera Rubin density hits, pluggables hit a thermal wall. Optics moves into the package. $SIVE – Pure-play. Sub. CW-WDM MSA founder. If CPO ships in volume, the InP laser source layer becomes structurally undersupplied and $SIVE is one of the few public pure-plays on it. Highest beta to CPO ramp on the entire list. $TSEM – $1.3bn in 2027 contracts already signed, $290M prepayments received, $920M capex committed. Already proving CPO revenue is real, and the foundry layer captures volume across every platform. FOCI (3363.TWO) – FAU pure-play. Stock has moved from ~200 TWD to 841 TWD in 12 months and still has runway. 1.6T and 3.2T FAU mass production starts H2 2026. Every CPO switch needs FAUs. $AEHR – Wafer-level burn-in market leader for SiPh. Small market cap, every CPO chip needs this test step. Highest beta to SiPh production volume on the US-listed side. MSSCORPS (6830.TW) – SiPh testing and failure analysis. Pure-play on Taiwan CPO production ramp. Smaller and earlier in the revenue cycle than peers, more upside if the ramp accelerates. ShunSin (6451.TW) – Full-stack optical module assembly and CPO packaging. Revenue up 45% in FY2025 with the inflection still ahead. Direct beneficiary of module volume scaling. $JBL – SiPh module packaging at scale. Acquired Intel SiPh business, Ottawa CPO facility ramping, $500M US AI manufacturing expansion. Indifferent of Generation – The picks and shovels $AXTI – InP substrate pure-play. Q3 2025 InP revenues up 250%+ sequentially. Doubling capacity by end of 2026. Highest beta to the InP shortage thesis. $IQE – III-V epitaxial wafers including InP and GaAs. Feeds the laser and VCSEL supply chain that sits directly above AXT. Soitec ($SOI) – Photonics-SOI substrates. Every silicon photonics chip from Tower, Intel, and GlobalFoundries sits on a Soitec wafer. Tower’s $920M capex flows directly into Soitec wafer orders. Nynomic / $M7U – Holding company that owns LayTec, the world monopolist for in-situ MOCVD epitaxy metrology. Scales with epitaxy capacity additions, new III-V epi reactors at $IQE, in-house InP fab expansions at $LITE and $COHR, and III-V device capacity at $AVGO. Not driven by $AXTI or Soitec. Disclosure: I own several names on all the layers. Bullish Photonics

SanDisk $SNDK and Micron $MU's PTs raised by Melius Research. Melius Research raised its price target for $SNDK from $1,500 to $2,350, while maintaining a buy rating. At the same time, they also raised its price target for $MU from $700 to $1,100, while maintaining a buy rating. Melius Research considers both stocks to be part of a select group of so called "bottleneck stocks", as AI demand is soaring and supply is unable to meet demand.

@CKCapitalxx $500 in the next 3-5 years.

I'll say it plainly. $PENG is a $100 stock trading at $48. This is a company that builds and deploys mission critical AI infrastructure for NASA, the US Air Force, the US Navy, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing. Organizations that spend years vetting vendors before they trust them with anything. $PENG passed every single one of those processes. Then look at who they partner with. $NVDA. $AMD. $INTC. SK Hynix. Dell Technologies. Shell. The most important names in compute on earth co-signing this company every single day. Enterprise and sovereign AI pipeline growing 50%. Every GPU cluster deployed needs memory systems, networking, and compute infrastructure around it. $PENG captures systems revenue on every single one regardless of which chip wins. The AI infrastructure buildout is a decade long tailwind and $PENG sits directly in the middle of it. 15x forward earnings. Defense grade customer list. The most important chip companies in the world as active partners. And then the $MRVL photonic memory partnership that is still completely unpriced. The Photonic Memory Appliance being built right now. $MRVL guiding $1 billion on the Photonic Fabric platform by FY29. $PENG builds the box. Zero dollars of that in any model today. A company trusted by NASA and the Pentagon trading at 15x earnings. $48 today. $100 is where this belongs.

This is WILD! MIT just solved one of the hardest unsolved problems in robotics (Save this). For decades, the fundamental problem with soft robots and wearable exoskeletons has not been compute or AI, it has been actuation. The moment you try to give a soft robot meaningful strength, you run into the same wall every engineer has hit since the field began, fluid-driven systems require external pumps, hydraulic reservoirs, and heavy infrastructure that makes the entire thing impractical to wear or embed into fabric. MIT's new Electrofluidic Fiber Muscles solve that problem by eliminating external infrastructure entirely. The key insight is electrohydrodynamic pumping using electric fields to generate pressure directly from electricity, with no moving parts, no motors, and no external fluid reservoir. The fibers are less than 2 millimeters thick, can be woven into fabric like ordinary textile, and operate in complete silence because nothing physically moves inside them, it is just ions propelling fluid through a closed circuit. The performance numbers published in Science Robotics are not conceptual, they are empirical results from actual hardware. These fibers achieve a power density of 50 watts per kilogram, matching skeletal muscle, with a contraction strain of 20% and a response time of 0.3 seconds. A single bundled configuration lifted 4 kilograms, 200 times its own weight while a separate configuration drove a robotic arm through a 40-degree bend compliant enough to safely complete a human handshake. Another configuration launched objects in under 100 milliseconds, which is faster than a human flinch reflex. The design mirrors biological muscle architecture in a way that prior artificial muscle approaches never achieved. The fibers are organized into antagonistic pairs, one contracts while the other extends, exactly like biceps and triceps and because the system runs in a closed loop, the relaxing fiber serves as the fluid reservoir for the contracting one, which is what allows the whole system to operate untethered with no external tank. The applications are not hypothetical but rather are the exact use cases the industry has been waiting years for the hardware to catch up to. Exoskeletons for physical labor, prosthetic limbs that move with the natural compliance of biological tissue, assistive garments for patients with motor disorders, and soft robots capable of safe physical contact with humans are all immediately unlocked by a muscle technology that is silent, lightweight, and weavable into clothing. The deeper significance is what this technology does when it meets the AI robotics wave that is already underway. Every major humanoid robot program, Figure, 1X, Boston Dynamics, Tesla Optimus is currently bottlenecked by the same hardware limitations these fibers address, actuators that are too rigid, too loud, too heavy, or too dependent on infrastructure to operate naturally alongside humans. Electrofluidic fiber muscles do not just solve a materials science problem but rather they remove one of the last physical barriers between robots that live in labs and robots that live in the world.

How many push-ups have you been doing wrong?

@InvestNorthwise $KEEL is comparable to $CORZ . Agreed the $CRWV comp is silly - if anything, Coreweave would be a tenant. There will be a rerating when $KEEL announce a major AI/HPC tenant. Sensible to position ahead of that.

$KEEL investors this is incredibly false information and should not be used as financial advice. As we have stated, comparing $KEEL multiples to $CRWV $IREN and $CIFR is straight up incorrect. These names are expected to make 8-15m per connected live MW. $KEEL, like $CIFR, is attempting to provide managed hosting and is not playing the same part of the stack as the neoclouds. This part of the stack generates closer to 1m per connected MW. (Notice how $CIFR isn’t mentioned in the comparisons?) The multiple conversations are not comparable, are not in the same hemisphere, and nor should they be. Owning the entire stack is much riskier, much more capex intensive, and more complex. Pretending that $keel should trade at the same multiples as $NBIS with a different business model, $500 million in liquidity, and a completely undeveloped pipeline and is downright dangerous and misleading. $KEEL is a very exciting opportunity, but it’s no longer cheap, and it’s not supposed to trade like $NBIS $IREN and $CRWV In our BASE case, which we see as more than fair, $KEEL will have less than a GW connected through 2030. This isn’t bearish it’s a fact of how long permitting, connections, and cleanups for these sites take. Be careful out there, congratulations to investors who saw the value like we did at $2 and don’t get caught chasing on misinformation.

Experts now consider strength training the single most potent habit for aging gracefully and extending lifespan. Far from being just for athletes or bodybuilders, lifting weights—or any form of resistance exercise, including body-weight moves—has emerged as one of the most powerful tools for healthy aging. It does far more than add muscle: it fortifies bones, revs up metabolism, and sharply lowers the odds of diabetes, heart disease, and other chronic conditions. As we get older, strength training switches on bone-forming cells, fights the natural loss of muscle mass known as sarcopenia, and keeps metabolism humming efficiently. For women, it’s especially valuable, helping offset the rapid bone-density decline triggered by menopause. The benefits extend well beyond the physical. Regular resistance work improves balance and coordination, dramatically cutting the risk of falls—the top cause of injury among older adults. It also protects the brain by enhancing insulin sensitivity, dialing down inflammation, and reducing dementia risk. The good news? You don’t need heavy barbells or punishing workouts. Even moderate, consistent strength training delivers profound gains in both quality of life and longevity. In the words of one leading researcher, “Building and maintaining muscle may be the single best investment you can make in your future health and independence.”

We’ve agreed to a partnership with @SpaceX that will substantially increase our compute capacity. This, along with our other recent compute deals, means that we’ve been able to increase our usage limits for Claude Code and the Claude API.

@haha_chess @RealJimChanos The entire premise is that robotaxis are expected to meaningfully replace car ownership which is much larger than just the taxi market (because the cost of hailing an AV will be so low). I dont think this happens inside 5 years but inside 10 sure.

@iageslow @RealJimChanos If I put on my optimist hat, the US rideshare+taxi market is ~$100B/year, somehow this is going to 50x inside 5 years. Good luck buddy.

Umm, isn’t that 100% of US GDP in four years…?

Between 200,000 and 300,000 Palestinians live in the UAE. Fewer than a thousand live in Iran. The Islamic Republic doesn't see Palestinians as humans — it sees us as a tool. Our cause invoked when convenient, our suffering used to justify its regional aggression.