Ilan Rosenberg

𝗗𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮. 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹. 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘂𝗻𝗻𝗶 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀. Before anything else, understand this: This is not a strategy. This is an ideology. It’s been stated openly, repeated for decades, and built into the system itself. This doesn’t change because of a negotiation or a signed document. And it’s not just geopolitical-it’s also sectarian. The divide between Shiite Iran and the Sunni Gulf states isn’t a detail. It’s part of the foundation. Lately, you hear more gulf states quietly pushing the U.S. to “finish the job.” And when you actually think about it, it becomes obvious why. Because they understand the reality on the ground better than anyone. So when people talk about a “peace deal,” they’re missing the point. The worst possible outcome here is a deal where Iran stays in control of the Strait of Hormuz. That’s not peace. That’s just a pause. Because if you leave the leverage intact-then nothing has actually changed. And everyone will understand exactly what it means: it’s only a matter of time before we’re back here again. Maybe not next year-maybe not even five years but it becomes inevitable. Markets will price it that way. You’re not going to get real long-term investment in the Gulf under that reality. Every refinery, every pipeline, every port, every piece of infrastructure carries a massive risk premium. Because at any moment, they can rearm, escalate, hit oil facilities again, or choke off the Strait. And oil will reflect it as Larry Fink explains below. Not because supply is gone-but because risk is permanent. Gulf oil won’t trade like normal oil anymore. It trades like oil with a timer on it. As long as the world believes it’s just a matter of time before escalation returns, before infrastructure is hit again, before shipping is threatened again - prices won’t normalize. You don’t get cheap, stable energy out of a fundamentally unstable system. So capital won’t treat it as stable either. It becomes a region where everything looks investable on paper, but nothing is truly investable in size. That’s why a half-solution doesn’t solve anything. It just guarantees the next conflict. A deal like that isn’t stability-it’s an intermission. And the problem with intermissions is that everyone knows the next act is coming. So the real question isn’t whether you can sign a deal. The real question is: does anything in that deal actually remove the risk? Because if the answer is no, then all you’ve done is delay the inevitable, and make the next crisis even bigger.

Bill Ackman on getting through a stressful, and difficult period in your life. Worth the 2 minutes, I come back to this video anytime I am going through a rough patch in life.

All warfare is a combination of the old and new used in creative ways.