
Artyom Novichonok
271 posts







While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known. More: go.nasa.gov/3WNhxyQ


Comet CCNG6P2, discovered ~3 weeks ago, is still on the PCCP page. It seems to be a very old (P ~ 1500 y) and weakly active (for now, r = 4.3 au). On 21 Oct. it will pass within 0.6 au of Earth and should reach bino visibility (7-8 mag) with excellent conditions for northerners.

In the last few days I have seen numerous daylight photos of comet C/2024 G3 (ATLAS). My favourite is this one by Maestro P. Horálek. The iridescent clouds below the comet create a special atmosphere, tell their own story. And, it's just lovely.


Current observations place comet C/2024 G3 (ATLAS) just above the Bortle survival limit line. Moreover, the comet may not be dynamically new (1/a orig = 0.00038 for now). If so, perihelion survival is much more likely.

Sunskirter comet C/2024 G3 (ATLAS) is brightening stable and steadily (now ~8m), having just entered inside Earth's orbit. The images show a healthy comet with a developed dust tail. The comet has just appeared on UV SWAN images, further confirmation that it's still intact.














