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Maki
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Something I’ve been noticing. A real shift in mobile gaming.
1. Skill based matchmaking is quietly segregating lobbies by account age. If you’ve been playing for 4-6 years, you’re almost never matching against newer players. Devs are protecting fresh accounts to keep retention numbers up. Smart for growth. Brutal for vets.
2. Long time players are burning out and switching genres and loving it. Hardcore players are jumping to casual shooters. Casual players are diving into tactical games. It’s not just you. It’s a mass migration. Years of grinding the same game wears people down.
3. The mobile market is growing so fast that communities are fracturing. More games, smaller player pools. That’s why your lobbies are filling up with bots. It’s only going to get worse.
4. We may never see another massive mobile game launch unless it’s built for casuals. I’m hoping Valorant Mobile breaks that trend, but I think the “true skill” era of mobile is fading. Now there are over a million casual shooter games. Good luck pulling a dedicated player off their main game. I don’t believe the active player numbers on any of these games. Half your lobby is bots and you’re telling me you have 50 million active players? Those numbers are inflated to keep investors happy and make the game look alive. If the real numbers came out, people would stop playing overnight.
5. Popular games will serve the masses. Niche games will serve the dedicated few. That’s the new reality.
6. Battle pass fatigue. Every single game has a battle pass now and it feels like a second job. Players are burning out just trying to keep up with seasonal content instead of actually enjoying the game.
7. Mobile games are dying faster. Studios are pulling the plug way quicker than they used to. If a game doesn’t hit numbers in the first few months, it’s done. Players invest time and money and then the servers just shut down.
8. Content creators are keeping games alive more than the devs are. Some games would be dead already if it wasn’t for creators pushing content. The marketing budget IS the creator now.
9.Agencies running the scene. Esports orgs and talent agencies are locking up creators and players. If you’re not signed or connected, you’re invisible. They decide who gets the brand deals, who gets the early access, who gets pushed. It’s not about skill or content quality anymore. It’s about who you’re with.
10.A few companies own everything. Tencent has their hands in almost every major mobile shooter. COD Mobile, PUBG Mobile, and Arena Breakout. They are all Tencent. Oh and don’t forget Tencent owns a stake in Ubisoft and they just invested $1.16 billion into Ubisoft for a few pc games and guess what? They invested into Rainbow Six as well. So Tencent’s fingerprints are on it, just not in the same direct way. They’re not competing with themselves, they’re rotating you between their own games. You think you’re switching to something new but you’re just moving to another app in the same ecosystem. That’s not competition, that’s a monopoly.
And those two tie together. The agencies work with the publishers, the publishers fund the agencies, and the regular player or independent creator gets squeezed out.
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