Malay Sameer

Since February 28: * At least 22 ships have been attacked * 10 crew members have been killed * Around 20,000 seafarers are unable to transit safely * An estimated 800 commercial vessels are stranded, including almost 400 tankers The Strait of Hormuz has never been Iran’s to close or restrict. Any attempt to do so is not a regional issue; it is the disruption of a global economic lifeline and a direct threat to the energy, food and health security of every nation. Setting such a precedent is illegal, dangerous, and unacceptable. The world simply cannot afford it and must not allow it.

Since February 28: * At least 22 ships have been attacked * 10 crew members have been killed * Around 20,000 seafarers are unable to transit safely * An estimated 800 commercial vessels are stranded, including almost 400 tankers The Strait of Hormuz has never been Iran’s to close or restrict. Any attempt to do so is not a regional issue; it is the disruption of a global economic lifeline and a direct threat to the energy, food and health security of every nation. Setting such a precedent is illegal, dangerous, and unacceptable. The world simply cannot afford it and must not allow it.

Read this slowly and carefully. What Are We Saying: Buy Stocks We are dropping our conservative stance on equities. A few signs that make the current correction suitable to add equity allocation in moderate proportions: 1. Valuations, especially for large caps with Nifty Index at 22,500, are now close to long term average. Banks, IT, Healthcare, insurance, housing finance and a few FMCG names (these collectively constitute more than half of market cap) are at or below long-term valuations. 2. For several large caps with ROEs of 15% to 16%, and multiples of less than 17x, even at current earnings growth of 10% to 12%, it would make sense to have suitable allocation. Whenever earnings revive, they can deliver better outcomes than bonds. One can find many of these stocks today. 3. For SMIDs, a more cautious stance is needed or allocation to active managers with focus on valuations and quality is key, in a SIP mode. 4. The bond yield to earnings yield gap is now just 1%. This is an ideal zone to own stocks and has become more favourable only in full blown panics like COVID crash or GFC’08. 5.India VIX went over 25 and has started to recede. This is a sign that there is reasonable amount of panic. 6. Most indices and large cap stocks are at extremely oversold readings. Only 15% of Nifty 500 Index constituent stocks are over 200 day moving average. Only 11 percent are over 50-day average. These readings are approaching extreme reading, although aren't at extremes yet. 7. Indian Rupee, as per REER, is at an oversold reading. 8. Indian GSec stands at 160 bps premium to repo rate, limiting the extent of where rates could be. 9. A time to add aggressively to stocks can come when value starts to emerge in SMIDs as well. Hence this is a time to raise equity allocation by a notch. More details to follow in DSP Navigator, to be released shortly and in DSPNetra April 2026 edition.