Impassioned Moderate

@impassionedmod

Exploring some things I know (tech, finance) and many I don't (culture, policy), but always questioning my assumptions and beliefs.

Katılım Temmuz 2022

563 Takip Edilen43 Takipçiler

Impassioned Moderate@impassionedmod·11 May

one last thing: Duo now being discounted hard, in some places close to Sock pricing - and no discount on Sock. if Duo growth was truly strong, why discount the bundle while Sock pricing stays the same? fits the over-pushed / over-inventoried Duo theory. 25/ QED

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Impassioned Moderate@impassionedmod·11 May

how big was the q1 distortion? rough math: inventory / sell-in issue: ~$3M Sock/Duo mix issue: maybe another ~$2-3M of lost domestic demand vs. normal 30% sell-through combined: potentially $5M+ of “what the hell happened?” distortion on $22.5M revenue. 24/

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Impassioned Moderate@impassionedmod·11 May

$owlt update - think i finally understand what happened tl;dr - market saw flat q1 guide and assumed growth broke. wrong. real story: temporary amazon/inventory issue + bad Duo over-pivot + awful communication = stock nuked. founder now back to fix it @paulcerro 1/

Impassioned Moderate@impassionedmod

$owlt up 99% since I wrote this just over 5 months ago. Raised and beat guidance in each of the past 3 quarters, now growing low-mid 30s percent year of year. Monster performance, and now valuation is starting to reflect reality (~2.5x NTM rev). Still room to run - i'm holding.

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@paulcerro @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates @NASA @nikifrancismediavine