Justin Fox

@awkwardmodel @GuruFantasyWrld Agreed. But if it’s Shedeur targets, I don’t want ‘em haha! I think ideally he’s a very strong WR2 for an NFL. You don’t have to pepper him with targets, but he’ll draw coverage and will a very reliable 2nd option. We’ll have to wait and see.

@inJustFox @GuruFantasyWrld Not sure w/o knowing what team he ends up on. Chiefs? Yeah, that’s a lot of mouths for a QB who will spread around. But he’s exactly the contested-catch winner someone like Shedeur would pepper as a WR1 (in real ball, prob no rookie at true fantasy WR1 until Jeremiah next year)

2026 DYNASTY ROOKIE DRAFT TAKES - Carnell Tate WR1; upside would not be questioned if not for playing with Jeremiah Smith - Makai Lemon WR1B; off-season noise is just noise - Omar Cooper Jr. has WR1 upside - Eli Stowers will be a legit NFL target-earner; it doesn’t matter if he can block - Sadiq’s profile NOT a red-flag - Jadarian Price underrated; could see him taken as high as 1.02 in rookie drafts post-NFL draft if the landing spot hits; he will get RD2 (potentially RD1) NFL Draft Capital - Jonah Coleman a potential gem; clear RB3 behind Love/Price; arguably ahead of Price in a vacuum - Antonio Williams can ball; 4-Star Recruit (96 Prospect Grade) with true freshman breakout will seem obvious in hindsight - Elijah Sarratt is not an NFL Receiver; cannot separate & is below-average after the catch - Michael Trigg is a more intriguing TE sleeper than Oscar Delp - Nicholas Singleton is good

@awkwardmodel @GuruFantasyWrld The injury is a good point. That helps his case a bit… My point is that if he is behind both Egbuka & freshman J Smith, with only 15% of targets, maybe we shouldn’t we be so high on him. I believe he’ll be an important NFL WR, but he won’t earn enough targets for a fantasy WR1.

@inJustFox @GuruFantasyWrld “Your point exactly” when literally you ignored the context of Tate being WR3 not WR2 in a year you cited, ignored his injury last year, and try to mitigate his TD to grind a percentage point axe. Have fun hating I guess ✌️

@awkwardmodel @GuruFantasyWrld The Indiana game where he went 4 for 45? A 19% target share game when it mattered most? Egbuka managed a 21.7% career target share with more career competition for targets than Tate. My point exactly.

@inJustFox @GuruFantasyWrld Except Tate wasn’t WR2 in 2024, it was Egbuka out of the slot (who actually had 1 more target than Jeremiah). He was also hurt for several weeks last year before dominating Michigan and scoring the only TD against for Ohio State against Indiana.

@GuruFantasyWrld Not to mention, JSN managed a 23% share with an older Wilson and Olave, and a younger MHJ on the team. My model has 12 guys drafted in the first two rounds with more career competition since 2017. Of those 12, only Waddle, BTJ, Polk, AD Mitchell had worse career target shares.

@GuruFantasyWrld I don’t understand how everyone is so willing to forgive Tate’s target share because of a younger Smith. Smith had 31% and 23% shares in over the past two seasons. Tate had 19% and 15%. There’s still plenty of targets to be had. Smith is elite, but that doesn’t excuse sub-20%.

@AdamSchefter @TheFFBallers @AndyHolloway @FFHitman @JasonMoore wednesdaynightfootball.com 📈

NFL now is exploring playing a game on Thanksgiving Eve as early as this season. This year this would be Wednesday, Nov. 25.

@RonStewart_ He comes in at 3rd most team career (adjusted) competition in my model for this years class.

Germie Bernard's WR competition by year: Yr 1 → Michigan St: Jayden Reed & Keon Coleman Yr 2 → Washington: Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan & Ja'Lynn Polk Yr 3-4 → Alabama: Ryan Williams Thats a 1st rounder, 3 2nd rounders, 1 3rd rounder, & a 2027 Round 1/2 pick

@GarrettBFF @FootballStock Yes. It currently directly adds to, or subtracts from, a few overarching scores (analytics, career stats, etc.) which compile to one score. One day, I may key it into more specific metrics (receiving share, YPRR, etc.). Currently, I don’t think that’s needed.

@inJustFox @FootballStock I’m assuming that factors in to a larger prospect score?

# of Future NFL Pass catchers played with Lemon: 3+ Zachariah Branch (top 50 projected) Ja’Kobi Lane (day 2 projected) Duce Robinson (day 2 + in 27’) + Woody Marks (2nd on team in receptions in 24’) Tate: 4+ MHJ (Top 5 pick) Emeka Egbuka (1st Rounder) Jeremiah Smith (Future top 5 pick) TE Klare (round 3-5) + Henderson/Juskins Tyson: 0.5 Just Skattebo in 2024

@FootballStock TEs count for less (for the WR prospects), but it does… I need only list all drafted WRs and TEs each year and where they were picked (and assume picks for guys like Jeremiah Smith). The formulas do the rest. Certainly beats doing it manually for every prospect.

@inJustFox Does this factor in TEs as well? Definitely something I do quantify in my model but haven’t gotten the exact formula down for a specific metric like this so I just usually give bonuses subjectively

@LavaDoesFantasy @DynastyZoltanFF This. I think Jeanty is (Maybe. Barely.) a better prospect. So I thought this exactly. Also, when so close, give me the guy who is 1.5 years younger.

@DynastyZoltanFF Most people are gonna say Jeanty until you see the landing spot and to that I ask what landing spot that is feasible ( don't say cardinals at 3 ) is worse than the Raiders?

Dynasty PPR

@RonStewart_ I shall never forget offering up the 1.07 and Darnold for the 1.06 to ensure I got Maye. Buddy doesn’t respond, drafts JJ, and here we are.

Indeed it was

To the goofs & landing spot snobs who drafted JJ Mccarthy>Drake Maye in rookie drafts

@GuruFantasyWrld ‘Cepts.

Sure, Marvin Harrison Jr. is the #2 target, his QB had a low catchable target-rate, he broke only 1 single tackle as a rookie, doesn’t get designed looks, & he plays for a team that ranked 22nd in passing attempts. But draft him Top-30 in 2025… because… reasons???

@HaydenWinks Elijah Moore (by percentage) *Jaylen Waddle (*Most impactful riser)

You win free chipotle for the year if you guess which player is going to rise in ADP (by percentage) the rest of the offseason. Who are you hypothetically taking? Our show on it is tomorrow.

@FootballStock @FFSnoog I like the consistency call. Size is fair. But even Worthy’s weight adjusted speed score still beats out Egbuka (after his very recent 4.48 40). Would argue it’s much closer than I’d want to believe it to be, but I’m with you. Anyways, love your work and keep it up!

@inJustFox @FFSnoog Size is the big one, both guys had lots of target completion Egbuka market share stuff, and consistent production any time he was healthy is a bit more fluid across the board

Better WR Prospect?

@FootballStock @FFSnoog Curious as to what has the model much higher on Egbuka over Worthy? Ladd, agreed. Egbuka and Worthy appear to average out similarly in a prospect model. Maybe final szn td/g, YPRR, career 1/RR? Otherwise, Worthy seemingly projects slightly ahead on paper. (I still voted Egbuka)

@FFSnoog FSE Prospect model says Egbuka & it’s not close Wild that people who shit on Ladd forget he was a coin flip and mainly film bro guy

@andyholloway Breakfast with Herbert at his favorite coffee shop? Let’s get this man paired up with Ladd. He’s staying in LA with the Chargers!

One reply only, no edits. Where do you think Cooper Kupp lands? I’ll pick some folks who get it right to send some swag to.

@YZR_Fantasy @GuruFantasyWrld Have to disagree there from a purely receiving numbers standpoint. Warren should also be drafted in the BTJ range vs. the Legette range.

@inJustFox @GuruFantasyWrld which is a bad thing

“Tyler Warren only had 1 season of college production.” Oh yeah? So did Brian Thomas Jr. I ain’t making that mistake again.

@GuruFantasyWrld @YZR_Fantasy While not in the same tier, this feels like it could easily adversely apply to Xavier Legette. (Still holding out hope!)

@YZR_Fantasy No – I just didn’t spell it out. We’re not “in” on *any* player with just 1 year of college production. Just the ones with elite traits + DC (BTJ being the most recent example).

@Trace_Johnson94 The shortest month is up next, ole buddy! 😉

January has been the longest and shortest month ever all at the same time, somehow 😂