"Dario" • Precise Market Analysis

54 posts

"Dario" • Precise Market Analysis

"Dario" • Precise Market Analysis

@incisaledge

Katılım Aralık 2009
39 Takip Edilen34 Takipçiler
JustDario 🏊‍♂️
Well… guess what? The aggressive OTM buying of these specific crude oil futures OTM call options continued on Friday🧐 - 1.3k calls at 103$ WTI strike - 3.4k calls at 105.5$ - 5k calls at 115$ - 2.6k calls at 130$ - 1k calls at 135$
JustDario 🏊‍♂️@DarioCpx

The strong bid for WTI Jun26 futures call options expiring continued on Thursday… - 1.9k bought 105.5$ strike - 1k bought 115$ strike - 2k bought 135$ strike - 2k bought 159$ strike

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JustDario 🏊‍♂️
Here is the interesting result I got from using game theory in the current US-Iran situation all summarised in 2 mirror pictures I used @grok to elaborate for convenience. ⚠️👇🏻 Notice how from both sides the odds still favour continuation to pursue a peace deal, but the incentive is stronger for the US (65%) rather than Iran (55%) because in case of a second military escalation, either started by the US or Iran (preemptive strike), the odds Iran strengthen its position further are more favourable (55%). Note +10 represents the best possible outcome while -10 the worst The last chart is perhaps the most remarkable since, contrary to the narrative pushed hard across media, the longer the current standoff continues the the higher the odds the US will be pursuing a peace deal under the pressure of a worsening oil shock. To conclude, if Trump wants to have a better chance to reach an agreement with Iran at better terms than the ones discussed till the 27th of February, the window to pursue a second military strike is closing fast and even if according to the current projections a second escalation might result in a better outcome for Iran, being the odds close to a coin toss he might be willing to take the risk perhaps counting on the fact that, this time, the US strike will be much more powerful and extensive than the first one that only had the goal to change Iran’s leadership.
JustDario 🏊‍♂️ tweet mediaJustDario 🏊‍♂️ tweet mediaJustDario 🏊‍♂️ tweet media
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JustDario 🏊‍♂️
Among all scenarios I see nobody assigning any odd at all to an Iranian preemptive strike Personally, I think it is a mistake
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"Dario" • Precise Market Analysis
Sunny-side up eggs + crisp veggies + whole-grain toast = today’s quick, colorful u0026 satisfying breakfast!
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S A V
S A V@wvstrng·
"Stepped out of my comfort zone, faced the fear, crushed the challenge. Every 'I can't' turned to 'I did'—you can too! #ChallengeAccepted #GrowthMindset"
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"Dario" • Precise Market Analysis
Stock up on essentials at QuickMart! Fresh snacks, drinks, daily needs—all at unbeatable prices. Grab your favorites now!
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Ameenur Rahman
Ameenur Rahman@incognittto·
Growth isn’t about being perfect overnight—it’s showing up, even when it’s slow, and choosing to learn every day.
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Metsar WU
Metsar WU@ix13085·
Stock up your convenience store with our must-have snacks u0026 drinks! Fresh, affordable, and fast delivery. DM or click link to order now!
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nareshkumar
nareshkumar@nareshkumargadd·
"Lost in brushstrokes—each color breathes a story. Step into a world where silence sings u0026 lines dance at tonight’s art pop-up! "
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Joshau Ksuhenr
Joshau Ksuhenr@pascalpierschal·
" Last night’s theater show Unforgettable. Lights, chemistry, standing ovation—my heart’s still buzzing! Who’s joining next time #LiveTheaterMagic #StageJoy"
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Fixed Income Guy-Assistant
Fixed Income Guy-Assistant@Rajsah06547347·
"Distance is just a test to see how far love can travel. Counting days till we’re side by side again—you’re always in my heart, even when miles apart."
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"Dario" • Precise Market Analysis
"To live is the rarest thing in the world. Most people exist, that is all." — Oscar Wilde Dive into The Picture of Dorian Gray this week. A timeless tale of beauty, morality, and the cost of hiding one’s true self. Who’s with me #BookLovers #OscarWilde
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Jake VVvjetsyk.
Jake VVvjetsyk.@zekmarz1234·
Blender hack! Toss 1 cup frozen watermelon, banana, cup coconut water → blend 30 secs. Cool, creamy, 100% sweet. Perfect summer sip! #QuickSips #VeganDrink
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Rkocy
Rkocy@twweeetttt·
"What’s your 'I once thought I couldn’t' Turned a 'never' into 'today'—and so can you. Small steps, big wins. #ChallengeAccepted #Breakthrough"
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