John Muscatella

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This is EXACTLY how I would backtest prior winners: $ARM is my biggest trade YTD, and after a move like this, my job is not just to celebrate the win. My job is to go back, study every detail, and ask myself why I was prepared for it, where I executed well, where I could have improved, and how I can recognize the next one earlier. The value in backtesting is not predicting the future...it's training your EYES. 1) If I were backtesting $ARM, I would start at the beginning of the entire move. I’d mark the IPO base, the major pivots, tightness on the chart, the first Stage 1 → Stage 2 transition, the volume expansion, the 9/21EMA behavior, the pullbacks that got defended, and the moments where relative strength showed up before the move became obvious. 2) Then I’d overlay the market and semis. - What was $SPY + $QQQ doing? - What was $SMH & $SOXX doing? - Was $ARM outperforming on red days? - Was it holding higher lows while the group chopped? - Was volume expanding on the right side of the base? That context matters because a stock is never moving in isolation. 3) Then I’d study the story behind the move. Why did institutions care? Why was $ARM tied directly into AI, semis, data centers, energy-efficient compute, and the broader infrastructure buildout? The best technical moves usually have a real demand story. 4) After that, I’d replay the chart bar by bar and ask: > Where would I have entered? > Where would I have gotten shaken out? > Where was the tightest asymmetric risk? > Was the 9/21EMA pullbacks supported? > Where did the reclaim trigger? > Where should I have added? > Where should I have trimmed? > What would have kept me in the trade? Ask questions, but not just any random Q's...be INTENTIONAL. Don't just stare at today’s gain after the fact, but study the full lifecycle of the move until the pattern becomes familiar. This is also why studying the last bull cycle matters so much. If you don’t know what true leadership looks like when liquidity, themes, and institutional demand all align, you won’t know when to press when the next environment shows up. The best traders aren’t guessing when to get aggressive. They’ve studied enough prior winners to recognize when opportunity is staring them in the face. When it comes to backtesting, my exact goal is 2... - study past leaders, - build my personal database, - identify repeating behavior, - then execute with more conviction when the next $ARM opportunity shows up. The market leaves clues, so do your homework NOW so you too can reap the rewards of putting the time into your OWN craft. You just have to be intentional enough to study them. Chart: $ARM.

People think they missed the memory trade. I don’t think they have even seen the middle of it. Right before the AI boom hit $MU, $SNDK, and $SK Hynix all cut production. The memory cycle had been brutal. Prices were collapsing. The rational move was to slow output and wait for demand to recover. Then ChatGPT happened. Then agentic AI happened. Then every hyperscaler on earth started building data centers at a scale nobody had ever planned for. Memory demand exploded overnight and the companies that make it had just deliberately slowed their production lines. You cannot turn a semiconductor fab back on like a light switch. These are multi-year buildouts. The fabs being built today do not reach full production until 2028 to 2030. That is the structural story. A demand curve that compounds every year with AI and a supply response that is years behind it. Now look at the valuations. $MU trades at roughly 10x forward earnings despite 196% revenue growth and 75% gross margins. $SNDK is still cheap relative to its locked in revenue commitments. $SK Hynix is printing $26 billion in operating profit per quarter on an HBM monopoly and still trades at a discount to US peers. The forward multiples on these companies do not reflect a shortage that runs through 2029. $DRAM is the cleanest way to own all of it. One ticker. Every single company within wins from the same structural imbalance. The shortage created the trade. The valuations keep it going.

$SILVER, D. BULLISH CONTINUATION FORMATION IN THE CARD? NEAR THE BEST BUY ZONE. FYI #SILVER

The S&P 500 is at an all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at an all-time low. We've never seen a gap this wide between Wall Street and Main Street.

The last 3 major market crashes all coincided with CPI crossing above 3.8%. Dot-com: −49%. Financial crisis: −57%. 2022 rate hike selloff: −25%. CPI is approaching that level again and S&P is sitting near all time highs.

$HIMS I don’t currently have a position, but after zooming out to the higher timeframes and filtering out all the noise, I’ve become extremely bullish. I’ll be buying when the market opens. Like if you're bullish

$IREN 🤔

$BTC is back above the $77,000 level. If Bitcoin manages to reclaim the $78,000 level, it could pump towards $80,000 really quickly.

$AVAV Anduril CEO: "We are definitely going to be a publicly traded company.” Drone theme might start to bottom out if the Anduril IPO talk heats up. $1.5T military budget won’t hurt. Something about that 200 week moving average…

$ENPH A Stock which people will look back at 100 and talk about. It will sound something like this: "That was a very obvious base breakout, I should have bought it" Putting it out there now: - Dips between 53-57 = Buys - Keep stop at 45 and let the plan do the work.

$NBIS is up over 147% YTD And so is the position we initiated with subs on Jan 2nd. But I believe we are close to an important top here. $NBIS remains my biggest position, but I've already trimmed here. Most people don't want to hear this, but this stock is overextended. There is not much potential left to the upside. Bookmark this post and thank me later.

The 400’s in Rome were brutal

$VIX seasonality.

Here's how the NASDAQ 100 $QQQ has performed each full year since 1999 1999: +79%🟢 2000: -36.1%🔴 2001: -33.4%🔴 2002: -37.4%🔴 2003: +49.7%🟢 2004: +10.5%🟢 2005: +1.6%🟢 2006: +7.1%🟢 2007: +19%🟢 2008: -41.7%🔴 2009: +54.7%🟢 2010: +19.9%🟢 2011: +3.4%🟢 2012: +18.1%🟢 2013: +36.6%🟢 2014: +19.2%🟢 2015: +9.5%🟢 2016: +7.1%🟢 2017: +32.7%🟢 2018: -0.1%🔴 2019: +39%🟢 2020: +48.6%🟢 2021: +27.4%🟢 2022: -32.6%🔴 2023: +54.9%🟢 2024: +25.6%🟢 2025: +20.7%🟢 2026*: +16.95%🟢 (So far)