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Moment of Zen: A Qatari family celebrate Eid al-Fitr together. Eid al-Fitr marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan. After a month of fasting and spiritual reflection, Eid begins with communal prayers, and continues with celebrations, family gatherings, gift exchanges, and festive meals expressing gratitude and joy. So to all, I hope you have a great day. Spend time with your loved ones, give thanks, share smiles, and cherish your renewal. ❤️

Ok, I think that was a good run for the day. I wasn't able to get to the Joe Kent interview yet, so I'll try to do that when I wake up. Today brought us: The years-long suspension of a fifth of Qatar's LNG exports. The rushed deployment of thousands of US Marines. The $200 billion Pentagon request to fund the war. The revelations from the now former Director of the US National Counterterrorism Center. The face-saving yet contradiction-filled Netanyahu press conference. The successful interception of a US F-35 fighter jet by Iran. The WSJ article reinforcing reports that missiles have been fired from Gulf countries on Iran. The strike on Haifa's refinery, the Israeli strike seeming to target an RT journalist in southern Lebanon, and many more strikes that I didnt have time to mention. Day 20 of the Iran War, and we've yet to see strong indications that it will be coming to an end anytime soon. Israel has killed over 1,000 people in Lebanon, and displaced over a million. The Lebanon War too, shows no signs of a quick end. The sun will soon rise in the Middle East as we enter the fourth week. Stay well, stay safe, keep your spirits up, and don't give the elites that run these countries the power to bring you down. We got this, one day at a time. Most importantly, today is Eid al-Fitr, and I wish you all a Eid Mubarak 🌙

The UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan released a joint statement expressing their readiness to help in ensuring the safe passage of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The statement does not include any commitment to send naval vessels or other resources to make that happen. Rather, they are ready "to contribute to appropriate efforts" and start "preparatory planning." France, Germany, Italy and Japan have previously all publicly ruled out sending naval vessels to the strait during the war.

The Trump administration has also discussed options to send ground forces to Iran's Kharg Island, the hub for 90% of Iran's oil exports. This operation would be very risky, since Iran has the ability to reach the island with missiles and drones with little warning given its proximity.

Today, the US State Department released a number of congressional notifications for foreign military sales to Gulf nations totaling $16.5 billion. The nations in question include Jordan, the UAE, and Kuwait. To the UAE, the sales include advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, F-16 munitions and upgrades, long-range radar with THAAD integration, drones, and additional supplementary equipment. To Kuwait, it includes lower tier air and missile defense sensor radars. For Jordan, aircraft repair and ordnance support.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports that the US has been firing land-based missiles on Iran with a range of 200-300 miles. Given the range, they have likely been fired from the territory Gulf countries that have taken the brunt of Iranian drone and missile attacks. None has admitted to allowing its land or airspace to be used to attack Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the US on Saturday of using HIMARS to fire missiles at Kharg Island from the UAE. The UAE’s government didn’t reply to a WSJ request for comment on Araghchi’s claims. Video shot in Bahrain showed that at least some launches came from the kingdom, which sits just 125 miles away from Iran. That video was verified by the New York Times, and the outlet reported that HIMARS had been used to fire on Iran from Bahrain. Bahrain’s government didn’t respond to questions about whether the kingdom gave the US permission to launch such attacks from its territory. A spokesman simply said that “Bahrain’s armed forces have not conducted strikes against Iran."

Haifa's Bazan refinery that was struck by an Iranian missile Thursday is Israel’s largest and most critical fuel facility. It supplies over 50% of the country’s fuel, processing roughly 197,000 barrels per day. Israel has only two refineries, Bazan and the Ashdod Oil Refineries.

Newsmax reports that the US military is speeding up the deployment of thousands of Marines and sailors to the Middle East. The USS Boxer group, comprised of the USS Boxer, USS Comstock, and the USS Portland, with the embarked 11th Marine Expeditionary Group, has been ordered to depart San Diego, California. The 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are leaving earlier than originally planned, carrying about 4,000 personnel with aircraft, missiles, and assault vehicles.

Footage from earlier tonight shows the moment that a fragment from an intercepted ballistic missile made impact right in front the person filming in Haifa, Israel.

Netanyahu's Press Conference (Part 4): On Hezbollah, Netanyahu reminds the public and the reporter that Israel overwhelming defeated the group in 2024. That currently Israel controls a "security corridor" that prevents an "invasion." Ultimately, Israel's "number one effort is geared toward Iran," and "if the regime goes, you know that Hezbollah goes." In any case, Israel has plans to deal with Hezbollah. All in all, Netanyahu makes clear that Israel had no role in pushing the US into this war. In fact, that's a "canard." The regime change war is going great, though he doesn't know who is running the country or whether the regime will fall in the end. "Cracks" are showing, but a ground force may be necessary, of which he has "possibilities." If this war wasn't waged, Iran would have moved its programs underground, successfully made ICBMs and nukes, and struck New York and Chicago. A spike in the price of oil by definition will go down, Israel is helping to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but really the world should bypass it and give Israel and its ports the control of 20% of the world's oil. Israel is creating a "security corridor" in southern Lebanon to avoid a Hezbollah "invasion," but also we know that if Iran falls Hezbollah falls with it. Oh, and he's definitely alive.

Netanyahu's Press Conference (Part 3): On the de-facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Netanyahu confirms Israel is helping US efforts to reopen it. This is being done with "intel and other means." Regarding the surge in the price of oil, he asks: "You know what a spike is? It goes up and goes down." Merriam-Webster Dictionary. Spike: an abrupt sharp increase (as in prices or rates). Sorry, I don't see "it goes down" over here. Maybe I'm using the wrong dictionary? Netanyahu made a notable freudian slip here, calling the Strait of Hormuz the "Strait of Tiran." In 1967, the main reason Israel launched its war against Egypt was because Abdel Nasser blockaded the Strait of Tiran, which Israel considered an act of war. In his answer on how he sees this war ending, Netanyahu makes a proposal. In order to bypass this vulnerability of chokepoints, "just have oil pipelines, gas pipelines, going west, through the Arabian Peninsula, right up to Israel, right up to our Mediterranean ports." "That is definitely possible. I see that as a real change that will follow this war." Ok world? "Just" that. "Just" give Israel all that control, money, and power. An easy "solution."

Netanyahu's Press Conference (Part 1): In the shadow of intense internet-fueled speculation that Netanyahu is dead, he gave a live press conference today. Netanyahu denied reports that Israel is failing to achieve its goals in Iran, saying its military forces are being destroyed and the conditions are being created for regime change. He claims that "cracks" are starting to show and defections are taking place, and asserts that there is trouble at the top with it being unclear who is running the country. Netanyahu repeats that it will ultimately be up to the Iranian people to rise up and force the government out. Acknowledging that regime change cannot be done with air power alone, he says "there has to be a ground component as well," and added that "there are many possibilities for this ground component and I take the liberty of not sharing with you all those possibilities." When asked about former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, Netanyahu says he believes "he's been a force for good."

Passing a grim milestone, Lebanon's Ministry of Health announced that 1,001 have been killed and 2,584 people have been wounded since the war began 12 days ago. Among the fatalities, 118 are children and 79 are women. Israel claims that it has killed 500 Hezbollah fighters since the start of the war.

This is the new cover of The Economist.

While taking questions earlier in the Oval Office, Trump was asked by a Japanese reporter why the US did not inform allies prior to the strikes on Iran. He responded that “one thing you don't want to signal too much, you know? When we go in, we went in very hard, and we didn't tell anybody about it because we wanted surprise.” Trump then added: “Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Okay? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor? Right?!” Trump was sitting alongside Japan’s Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi.

Speaking to Reuters, Saad al-Kaab, the CEO of QatarEnergy and Qatar's State Minister for Energy Affairs, reveals that Iranian attacks ‌have knocked out 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity. This will cause an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and will have detrimental effects to countries in Asia and Europe who rely on these exports. Repairs will take three to five years, and the company may have to declare force majeure on LNG contracts, meaning an inability to fulfill these contracts, for up to 5 years. In the region as a whole, he says the scale of the damage has set the Gulf back 10 to 20 years. "If Israel attacked Iran, it's between Iran and Israel. It has nothing to do with us and the region.”

As promised, here is the interview I did with Maria Karchilaki from OpenTV Greece. I want to thank @karhilam and @opentvgr for giving me a platform to speak and share my personal point of view. The conversation was longer than what ended up being published, but networks are up against time, and need to cut up the important bits for air time. The dramatic background music is also for effect, so try to ignore it's there. I was going to film myself at the end of this to add more context and nuance to what was said, but time is tight, so I'll write it out. Also, I had barely slept, so excuse the look if possible. The purpose of this story for OpenTV was to highlight the complexity of the domestic situation in Lebanon, from foreign interference, to debates on Hezbollah and sovereignty, and sectarian tensions that permeate the country. I expressed that my biggest concern is the prospect of civil conflict, and my belief that Israel is working hard to facilitate this. It is just my opinion, and you can take it, or leave it. While civil conflict is my biggest concern, that doesn't mean I believe it's a high probability. The past 15 months have shown that nearly all factions in Lebanon have placed a primacy and effort in avoiding this prospect, and that resiliency can very much hold strong. As I've expressed multiple times on this group, my belief is that if Israel's main goal was to disarm Hezbollah, they would have made the effort to help the new Lebanese government gain authority and legitimacy after it asked for Israel's strikes and occupation to be toned down. Instead of doing this, Israel proclaimed that it would not reduce their intensity, and in fact increased the rate and scale of these strikes in the lead-up to this war. A weak central authority create the conditions for foreign influence and non-state actors. A strong central authority deters and repels this. There was a clear opportunity to strengthen the government's authority, and Israel did the opposite of what was needed. Say what you want about Israel, but the country is not oblivious. It knows the consequences of its actions. Hezbollah's legitimacy rested on the concept of resisting Israeli aggression. Had Israel toned down its aggression after the Lebanese government's diplomatic efforts, it would have been a shot at the very foundations of Hezbollah's reason for existence, and proven there was an alternative to armed resistance. I still believe there is an alternative, but the current Israeli government does not provide the conditions for this alternative to flourish. I also acknowledge that there is large doubt and a low likelihood that violent resistance is even effective after the last war, and with this lies the quagmire and the trap Lebanon finds itself in. This needed to be said to add context and nuance to the attached interview. Lastly, for the Lebanese, the violations of our sovereignty on all sides can only be transcended by a widespread belief in unity and patriotism for the country as a whole. A Lebanon-first mentality. We are doomed to repeat the same cycle if this cannot be reached. President Aoun, hate him or love him, did his best to spread this message, most notably in his Independence Day speech last year. The reason Israel and the United States have as much power and dominance is because they have a strong sense of patriotism and unity when facing external actors. This needs to be cultivated in Lebanon, and I hope it is. Thawra was a model. It will soon be time to put it into action. 🇱🇧

In addition to striking oil and gas sites across the Gulf last night, Iran hit the Haifa oil refinery today. The strike made impact on the site, and led to power outages in the city. Here is footage of the moment the missile struck.

Today, an Israeli missile strike hit mere meters away from a Russia Today reporter in southern Lebanon. Steve Sweeney, the Irish reporter involved, said he believes it was "clearly deliberate" and attempt to silence coverage of Israeli war crimes. This is not unique. Israel has targeted reporters in Gaza, so much so that it has been one of the identifying characteristics of the war, and repeatedly did the same in the Lebanon War in 2024.