IOTAF

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IOTAF

@iotafmarkets

Institute of Trading and Finance. Real-time macro-economic commentary, research, and analysis straight from our trading floor and institution.

Montréal, Québec Katılım Ekim 2015
330 Takip Edilen1.7K Takipçiler
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IOTAF
IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
Introducing our NEW 12-mth Master in Trading online certificate! This 250 video program teaches students how to successful trade every asset class, in every time frame and style! Enrol today! iotaf.com/programs/mit-c…
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IOTAF
IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
🚨 MARKET OPENING ALERT 🚨 Markets are under pressure ahead of today’s critical U.S. CPI report. 📉 S&P 500 Futures: -0.8% 📉 Nasdaq Futures: -1.2% 📉 Bitcoin: -1.6% 📉 Gold: -2.4% 📈 US 10Y Yield: 4.53% Today’s focus: 🔹 Core CPI M/M Expected: +0.3% 🔹 Prior: +0.4% 🔹 8:30 AM ET Release The market has rapidly shifted from pricing rate cuts to pricing potential Fed hikes in 2026. A hotter-than-expected inflation print could: ➡️ Push yields higher ➡️ Pressure tech & AI stocks ➡️ Weigh on Bitcoin and gold ➡️ Strengthen the U.S. dollar A softer print could spark a powerful relief rally across risk assets. Our view: positioning remains extremely fragile. Expect volatility. #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #Stocks #Nasdaq #SP500 #Bitcoin #Gold #Trading #Markets #IO
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IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
Fed HawkDove cheat sheet is here …..
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IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
🚨 IOTAF Morning Note | June 3, 2026 Markets are back to trading geopolitics. • Brent crude +2.6% near $100 • US strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island • Iran retaliates against US bases in Kuwait • New Trump tariffs hit 60 trading partners • US 10Y yield climbs to 4.48% • Bitcoin slips to $67K • Marvell extends AI-fueled rally, Broadcom earnings tonight The market is now facing a toxic mix of higher oil, renewed trade tensions, resilient economic data and persistent inflation risks. 🎯 Key events today: • ADP Employment • ISM Services PMI • Fed Beige Book • Broadcom earnings Watch Brent crude. A break above $100 could become the next major catalyst across equities, bonds, currencies and inflation expectations. #SPX #NASDAQ #AI #NVDA #AVGO #Oil #Bitcoin #Markets #Trading #Investing #IOTAF
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IOTAF
IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
Here’s a copy-paste-ready tweet: 🚨 IOTAF Morning Note | June 2, 2026 Markets are shifting from pricing WAR to pricing PEACE. • Brent crude -1% on hopes of a US-Iran deal • US 10Y yield back to 4.43% • AI remains the dominant theme as Anthropic, OpenAI & SpaceX prepare blockbuster IPOs • Marvell +26% after Jensen Huang called it the “next trillion-dollar company” • Bitcoin falls below $70K • Eurozone inflation reaccelerates, keeping ECB hawkish 🎯 Key catalyst today: US JOLTS Job Openings A successful Iran deal could send oil lower, inflation expectations down, and stocks to fresh highs. #SPX #NASDAQ #AI #NVDA #Bitcoin #Oil #Markets #Trading #Investing #IOTAF
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IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
IOTAF WEEK AHEAD A massive week for markets as investors balance AI euphoria, rising oil prices, and critical labor market data. Key events: • Monday: ISM Manufacturing • Tuesday: Eurozone CPI, US JOLTS • Wednesday: ISM Services, Fed Beige Book, Bloomberg Tech Summit • Thursday: Jobless Claims • Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Canada Jobs Report Themes driving markets: • AI remains the dominant leadership trade • Nvidia’s expansion into AI PCs is reshaping the semiconductor landscape • SpaceX IPO preparations continue, potentially the biggest market event of the year • Brent crude back above $94 as US-Iran tensions and Lebanon escalation revive inflation concerns • Treasury yields rising as markets reassess Fed hike risks What matters most? Friday’s payroll report. Strong jobs + strong wages + higher oil prices could push yields higher and revive Fed tightening expectations. Watch: $NVDA $MSFT $ARM $DELL $HPE Brent Crude US 10-Year Yield ISM Prices Paid JOLTS Nonfarm Payrolls The battle this week: AI momentum vs inflation risk. #IOTAF #Markets #WeekAhead #Trading #Investing #AI #NVDA #Fed #Oil #JobsReport
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IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
IOTAF DAILY MARKET NOTE Markets start June where they left off: chasing AI. • S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures point to fresh record highs • Nvidia expands into AI PCs, challenging Intel, AMD and Qualcomm • Arm +10%, HPE +7%, Dell +3%, Microsoft +3% • SoftBank overtakes Toyota as Japan’s most valuable company • South Korea’s Kospi surges another 3.7% as Samsung jumps 10% • SpaceX IPO targets a staggering $1.8 trillion valuation Meanwhile, oil is back in focus. • Brent crude +3.4% to $94 • US-Iran negotiations remain unresolved • Israel expands operations in Lebanon • Treasury yields rise as inflation risks re-emerge This week’s key event: Friday’s US jobs report. A strong labor market + higher oil prices could revive Fed hike expectations. AI remains the market leader, but energy is once again the biggest macro risk. Watch: NVDA, MSFT, ARM, DELL, HPE, Brent crude, 10-year yields and Friday’s NFP. #IOTAF #Markets #Trading #AI #NVDA #Stocks #Investing #Oil #Fed #SpaceX
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Nick Timiraos
Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos·
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh wants to pay more attention to measures of inflation that strip out the most extreme price moves each month. Several versions exist, all running below core. The most widely cited is the Dallas Fed's, at 2.3% in April (vs. 3.3% for core PCE).
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IOTAF
IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
IOTAF DAILY MORNING NOTE Markets are closing out May with strong momentum. • S&P 500 near record highs • Dell +40% after a massive AI-driven earnings beat • HPE +20%, Super Micro +12%, Lenovo +22% • Brent crude falls to $92 as hopes grow for a US-Iran ceasefire deal • South Korea’s Kospi surges 24% in May on AI enthusiasm • Treasury yields remain elevated as inflation and Fed uncertainty linger Key theme: AI remains the dominant market story, while easing Middle East tensions are helping risk assets extend the rally. Today’s focus: • US-Iran negotiations • Canadian GDP • Fed speakers • AI infrastructure stocks The key trade: AI leadership vs. geopolitical headline risk. #IOTAF #Markets #Trading #Stocks #Investing #AI #NVDA #DELL #Fed #Oil
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IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
Markets are opening cautiously as renewed US-Iran tensions push oil higher and risk assets lower. • Brent crude +1.7% near $96 • Bitcoin -2.5% • S&P futures -0.1% • US 10Y yield 4.49% Today’s focus shifts to Core PCE inflation, jobless claims, GDP, and Fed speakers. Meanwhile, AI momentum remains intact: • Snowflake +36% after a $6B Amazon deal • Dell +5% on a $9.7B military contract • Micron reaches a $1T market cap Key question: Can AI earnings momentum continue to overpower rising oil prices and geopolitical risk? #Markets #Stocks #Trading #Investing #AI #NVDA #SMCI #SNOW #BTC #Oil #FOMC #IOTAF
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IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
Markets extend their rally as AI optimism and falling oil prices fuel risk appetite. • Goldman raises S&P 500 target to 8,000 • WTI crude falls 4% as US-Iran deal hopes grow • 10Y Treasury yield drops to 4.46% • South Korea’s KOSPI surges to new highs, up nearly 100% YTD • Marvell, Salesforce and Snowflake earnings on deck Key theme: The market is shifting from a “war scare” narrative back to an “AI productivity boom” narrative. Lower oil + lower yields + strong AI spending = bullish backdrop for equities. #SPX #NASDAQ #AI #NVDA #MRVL #Markets #Trading #IOTAF
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IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
Markets open with a risk-on tone despite fresh US strikes on Iranian targets overnight. • S&P futures +0.6% • Nasdaq futures +0.9% • Brent crude +3.5% near $100 • US 10Y yield falls to 4.50% • Bitcoin below $77K This week’s key catalyst is Thursday’s PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Investors are balancing: • Hope for a US-Iran deal and reopening of Hormuz • Rising energy prices and inflation risks • Warsh’s hawkish Fed outlook • Continued AI momentum and crowded positioning Major events: Tue: Consumer Confidence Wed: Salesforce earnings Thu: PCE Inflation, GDP, Jobless Claims, Dell earnings Fri: Canada GDP, Europe CPI Market theme: AI Momentum vs Inflation Risk. A peace deal could send oil lower and fuel a rally in bonds and growth stocks. A breakdown in negotiations could push oil back above $100 and reignite inflation fears. #stocks #markets #trading #economy #Fed #AI #oil #inflation
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IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
THE WEEK AHEAD Markets face a pivotal week with inflation, earnings and geopolitics all colliding. Key events: • Tue: Consumer Confidence • Wed: Salesforce earnings, RBNZ decision • Thu: PCE Inflation (Fed’s preferred gauge), GDP, Jobless Claims, Dell earnings • Fri: Canada GDP, Eurozone CPI What matters most: US-Iran negotiations and the future of the Strait of Hormuz Thursday’s PCE inflation report Kevin Warsh’s first full week as Fed Chair AI momentum trade and earnings from Salesforce & Dell Bull case: • Iran deal reached • Oil falls • Inflation cools • Bonds and growth stocks rally Bear case: • Talks fail • Oil spikes above $100 • Inflation reaccelerates • Higher-for-longer rates return The market’s biggest question: Will AI momentum continue to overpower inflation fears? #SPX #NASDAQ #Fed #PCE #AI #NVDA #Oil #Trading #Markets
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IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
BREAKING: Kevin Warsh officially becomes Chairman of the Federal Reserve today. Markets are preparing for: • A more hawkish Fed • Stronger focus on inflation credibility • Less forward guidance • Higher-for-longer rates if inflation persists • Major changes to Fed communication strategy Warsh has long warned about: Excess liquidity Asset bubbles Sticky inflation The dangers of keeping rates too low for too long His message is clear: Price stability comes first. A new era for the Fed begins today. #Fed #Warsh #inflation #rates #stocks #macro #economy #trading
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IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
AI continues to carry global markets higher, but macro risks are building beneath the surface. • Brent crude above $105 • Inflation expectations rising • Bond yields near multi-decade highs • Kevin Warsh officially becomes Fed Chair today • Iran / US negotiations remain fragile • AI mega-caps still driving most of the S&P 500 gains Markets are pricing AI productivity. Bonds are pricing inflation. Oil is pricing geopolitical risk. Something eventually has to give. #stocks #markets #AI #inflation #Fed #NVDA #oil #trading
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IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
NVDA recap: overall strong results but guidance shy of whispers.
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IOTAF@iotafmarkets·
MARKET UPDATE: US futures higher ahead of FOMC Minutes and NVDA earnings. NQ +0.6% ES +0.3% 10YR 4.64% WTI above $107 BTC back above $77k Markets finding some relief as bond selling pauses and oil pulls back slightly, but macro risks remain elevated. Semis bid into NVDA tonight while small caps continue lagging as traders hedge against higher rates and sticky inflation. DAY AHEAD: - FOMC Minutes - NVDA earnings - US 20YR auction - Fed speakers - Continued Middle East / Hormuz headlines KEY THEMES: - AI vs higher yields - Oil inflation risk - Long-end bond stress - Fed hike fears - Semiconductor leadership News flow overnight: - EU finalized US trade deal text - Samsung union strike talks failed - China confirmed Boeing jet purchases - Iran rhetoric remains aggressive - UK CPI cooled more than expected - Treasury market attempting stabilization after recent selloff Today likely determines near-term direction for tech, semis and broader risk appetite.
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