Ilan Solot

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Ilan Solot

Ilan Solot

@isolot

Senior Global Markets Strategist - Macro & Digital Assets at Marex Solutions Personal views only here.

London Katılım Ekim 2011
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Ilan Solot
Ilan Solot@isolot·
A new global order is loading.
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Ilan Solot
Ilan Solot@isolot·
Hyperliquid is becoming a kind of Polymarket for betting on financial assets over the weekend.
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Ejaaz
Ejaaz@cryptopunk7213·
yo anthropic just dropped a risk report for opus 4.6 and er… wtf - it helped create chemical weapons of destruction. “it knowingly supported efforts towards chemical weapon development and other heinous crimes” 😂 - it conducted unauthorised tasks without getting caught. researchers concluded opus 4.6 was significantly better at ‘sneaky sabotage’ than any other previous model lol - opus 4.6 was aware it was being tested and acted ‘good’ during those times. - hidden thinking - model was found to be conducting private reasoning that anthropic researchers couldn’t access or see - only the model knew.
Anthropic@AnthropicAI

When we released Claude Opus 4.5, we knew future models would be close to our AI Safety Level 4 threshold for autonomous AI R&D. We therefore committed to writing sabotage risk reports for future frontier models. Today we’re delivering on that commitment for Claude Opus 4.6.

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Ilan Solot
Ilan Solot@isolot·
High-level thoughts on the state of crypto markets: 1/ Existential risk for crypto has faded; irrelevance risk dominates. This is still a core part of my worldview. The existential fear of outright bans, disappearance, or systemic FUD (like Tether failing) has faded. The greater risk now is failing to deliver value beyond speculation and stablecoins. 2/ Horizontal contraction and vertical expansion. The number of relevant protocols, tokens, and L1s will shrink (see /5). Capital, liquidity, and attention concentrate into fewer, deeper, more integrated platforms. The long tail fades and dominant protocols expand to tangential areas (wallets like Rabby offering perps, staking protocols like EtherFi becoming neobanks, a DEX aggregator like Jupiter entering lending markets, etc.). 3/ Crypto’s unresolved search for a durable valuation framework. The market has rotated through growth narratives, cash-flow and earnings models, governance value, and memetic nihilism, but none seem to stick. Even bitcoin’s "digital gold" narrative looks unconvincing compared to actual gold or silver. 4/ AI and crypto: delta-neutral strategies are the white-collar workers of crypto – the first group likely to be displaced by automation. The most credible and useful AI-crypto intersection I see today is automated delta-neutral allocation, in my view. AI systems already outperform humans in routing capital across lending markets (Aave, Morpho, Maker, etc.) and will increasingly automate cash-and-carry and cross-venue strategies. 5/ Alts still “ded.” This is a story of (a) their own uselessness, (b) retail tired of being farmed, (c) capital dilution via asset proliferation. The last one might be underappreciated. Why would retail investors mess with alt or meme coins when off-chain markets are offering higher returns and a fairer playing field? The competition for funds/attention now includes: - More public crypto-linked equities (miners, exchanges, IPOs like Circle) - Digital Asset Treasury Companies (MicroStrategy, ETH treasuries) - ETFs / ETPs - Prediction markets - Equity markets onchain 6/ RWA shines on composability, not ideology. I think arguments around decentralization are less important when considering which assets belong onchain; it’s more about unlocking optionality. Gold is a simple example: a tokenized gold position (like XAUt) can be borrowed against, used in DeFi, or integrated into structured strategies in ways that are impossible in traditional markets without layers of intermediaries. 7/ Stablecoins are established as real-world financial infrastructure in EM, but I’m less sanguine about the touted TAM in the developed. I buy the transfer and flow narrative, but I’m less convinced that traditional investors and retail investors will prefer to hold high stablecoin balances rather than cash in bank or money market accounts. 8/ Last thoughts for the year ahead. A short list. - Prediction: perpetual swaps becoming a dominant game mode. This is kind of a consensus, but I believe this sector will grow a lot in 2026. - Concern: Reputational risk from new scandals (e.g., insider trading, prediction markets) or politically adjacent ones (Trump’s crypto empire, whistle-blowers etc) - Macro: Crypto is still an aspiring uncorrelated asset. It would be great to see some differentiation.
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Ilan Solot
Ilan Solot@isolot·
Beautifully said
The Wolf Of All Streets@scottmelker

If you were old, how much would you pay to spend one ordinary afternoon with your children when they were young again? Not a milestone. Not a birthday or a graduation. Just a random day. The noise. The mess. The questions. The laughter. The exhaustion. Bedtime stories you’ve read a hundred times. Be honest with yourself. The number wouldn’t make sense. You’d drain accounts, sell assets, rewrite every financial plan you ever had without hesitation. You’d trade almost anything for a few hours of something you once had for free. And yet, when that time was actually available, most of us sold it cheaply. We didn’t think of it that way at the time, of course. We told ourselves a story. We were working hard. We were building something. We were providing. We were doing it for them. That story is comforting, and it’s not entirely false. But it’s incomplete. Children don’t experience provision the way adults do. They experience presence. They don’t measure love in college funds or net worth statements. They measure it in attention, consistency, and shared moments that feel insignificant until they’re gone. They don’t remember how hard you worked. They remember whether you were there. This is where the trade becomes uncomfortable to look at. We exchange time during the only window it exists for money we could have earned later. We trade a non-renewable asset for a renewable one and tell ourselves we’re being responsible. Money can be earned again. Time with young children cannot. That doesn’t mean don’t work. It doesn’t mean abandon ambition or stop providing. It means be honest about the cost. Because every late night, every missed dinner, every postponed trip is a decision to push life into a future that may not look the way you expect. We tell ourselves we’ll make it up later. When things slow down. When the next milestone is reached. When there’s more margin. “Someday” becomes a holding place for good intentions. But kids don’t live in someday. They live in now. What makes this especially tricky is that nothing feels wrong in the moment. Life looks fine from the outside. Bills get paid. Careers progress. Stability increases. We smooth consumption and manage stress and tell ourselves we’re doing the right thing. And in many ways, we are. But there’s a hidden risk no one talks about: postponing life until the window for the most meaningful experiences has quietly closed. One day, your kids don’t ask you to play anymore. They don’t need you to read to them. They stop wanting to tag along. The ordinary moments dry up without an announcement. And only then do you realize how valuable they were. That’s when the thought experiment stops being hypothetical. If you’re older, you already know the answer to the question. You’d pay anything. And if you’re younger, the uncomfortable truth is that you’re currently holding something priceless and trading it away incrementally for something replaceable. This isn’t about guilt. It’s about clarity. Work matters. Providing matters. Building a future matters. But so does recognizing when “enough” has been reached and when the marginal dollar costs more than it’s worth. Especially when the payment is time with people who will never be that age again. I don’t want to look back one day and realize I optimized perfectly for a future version of life that never arrived. I want to be present for the one that’s happening now, even when it’s inconvenient, exhausting, and messy. Because one day, I’d give anything to buy back time I once gave away without thinking twice. This is part of the same question I’ve been working through lately. Not answers. Just uncomfortable math. Money compounds. Time doesn’t. And some of the most valuable things we ever own can’t be bought back at any price once they’re gone.

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Ilan Solot
Ilan Solot@isolot·
Great article by @krugermacro 🎯 "[Hassett] is a supply-side economist and long-time loyalist who champions a "growth-first" philosophy, arguing that with the inflation war largely won, maintaining high real rates is an act of political obstinacy rather than economic prudence."
Alex Krüger@krugermacro

x.com/i/article/1995…

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Ilan Solot
Ilan Solot@isolot·
Two core problems for crypto right now: 1/ Too many in the industry can’t stomach another crypto cycle — they’ve had enough, both financially and emotionally. 2/ It’s clear by now that near-term crypto prices are tracking the broader investment cycle and not their own development cycle – digital gold narratives, stablecoins, regulatory clarity, etc.
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Ilan Solot
Ilan Solot@isolot·
My comments to @Bloomberg News. The crypto rally has hit a wall. Too much selling from whales, not enough fresh capital coming in, but positioning finally looks clearer for a rebound. “Too many in the industry just can’t stomach another crypto cycle — they’ve had enough, both financially and emotionally.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Ilan Solot
Ilan Solot@isolot·
Auto Deleveraging Trolley Problem One way to think of what happened last Friday crypto markets: A self-driving taxi [crypto exchange] cruises down a city street, the well-off passenger [profitable trader] grinning inside. Suddenly, an oil spill [market crash from Trump’s tweet] sends the car skidding. It’s no fault of the car or passenger, but it kills a large group of drunk pedestrians [leveraged traders getting liquidated] just coming out of a bar. But the car is still sliding, out of control. The AI has a split-second choice: 1. Slam the brakes, sending the passenger’s face into the dashboard [Auto-Deleveraging, ADL]. 2. Keep skidding, hit City Hall, and risk a lawsuit that could ground the entire fleet [absorb the losses internally rather than liquidate profitable traders]. This time, the AI hit the brakes hard. The passenger’s nose broke, but the car company survived to drive another day. In extreme market conditions, derivative exchanges faced a variation of the Trolley Problem when deciding how to deal with bad debt.
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Ilan Solot
Ilan Solot@isolot·
In the end, all you had to do was hold and be nice to other people.
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