Ivan Briscoe

Trump's full rant on Cuba: "I think Cuba, in its own way, tourism and everything else, it's a beautiful island, great weather. They're not in a hurricane zone, which is nice for a change, you know? They won't be asking us for money for hurricanes every week. I do believe I'll have the honor of taking Cuba. That's a big honor. Taking Cuba in some form, you know. Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it -- I can do anything I want with it, if you want to know the truth."

The most likely regime change scenario in Cuba is not from Communist Party rule to democracy, it’s from party to military rule. Why is Rubio holding secret talks with “Raulito” Castro, grandson of Raúl Castro, who, at 94, is officially retired as president and first secretary? Rubio correctly assesses that sitting president Miguel Díaz-Canel has little support, due to not being a Castro but also due to his poor leadership, incompetence at managing the economy and crackdown on the 11J protests - which were originally about food and medicine shortages during the pandemic. When I visited a year ago, Cubans everywhere (including admirers of Fidel) openly mocked Díaz-Canel for his lack of charisma, public gaffes, luxury lifestyle, and building more tourist hotels for no tourists while cutting rations for Cubans. However unlike Venezuela, there’s no organized opposition in Cuba, and no María Corina Machado waiting to take the reins, if Trump were to even want that. So from Trump’s perspective, what’s the alternative? It’s the military. Díaz-Canel, a longtime party functionary, represents the rigid party gerontocracy, uninterested in any reforms that might weaken their grip on power. Raúl senior, the longtime head of the military, oversaw a brief period of neoliberal reforms that coincided with the Obama opening. Most the initiative came from within the military, because it was the military that profited from the reforms. The tourist hotels are public-private partnerships between foreign hotel chains and the Cuban government, but the government side is really the military. Today, the military’s economic arm, GAESA, controls half of the economy, from tourism - the only economic engine left after Raúl shut down the sugar mills - finance, retail, and foreign trade. It’s opaque with no oversight, even by other parts of the government, party, or National Assembly, and thus a vector for corruption. Raulito represents GAESA and the profit-driven military wing of the Cuban government. It’s this wing that would be most amenable to making a deal with the US, as long as they continue making money. They’d probably even be open to an ideological rebranding, having little attachment to the party’s slogans. But they can’t be confused for democrats. They’re part of the same security apparatus that imprisoned a thousand people after the 11J protests. For his part, Rubio wants a win to showcase when he runs for president, and brag to his Florida constituents that he accomplished regime change in Cuba - which, unlike Venezuela, he actually cares about. But if any kind of regime that’s not called the communist party is OK with them, a corrupt military-business regime that Trump can partner with is preferable to an independent democratic one that’s accountable to the Cuban people.