EZEV

54 posts

EZEV

EZEV

@itsEZEV

Building smarter models, not riskier bets. EZEV = expected value made easy.

Katılım Eylül 2025
1 Takip Edilen20 Takipçiler
EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
1u on NRG/Legacy Over 2.5 Maps @ 1.90 No-vig fair: 48.64% | Model: 52.84% EV ≈ +0.07u (+4.2 pp | +7.4% ROI) Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.07u; SD ≈ 0.97u. Both teams fighting for a Major Stage 2 invite — model expects a close battle.
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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
1u on Heroic ML @ 1.88 No-vig fair: 50.0% | Model: 53.0% EV ≈ +0.06u (+3.0 pp | +6.0% ROI) Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.06u; SD ≈ 0.94u. Thin margin, but model shows Heroic slight value at this number. YTD: +5.36u | Record: 18–11 (29 bets) | ROI: 18.5%
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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
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Pete@fourtimesm·
Starting the day by saying how much I “love to fleece bookies” then proceeded to get slammed today. It’s good for God to keep me humble. Days like this are part of the game. Nothing changes. Stick to the process, keep firing, we get it back tomorrow. 🫡
EZEV@itsEZEV

2–4 day, down –2.43u. ✅ G2/Mongolz Over 2.5 @ 1.85 ✅ NiP ML @ 1.72 ❌ FURIA/Astralis Over 2.5 @ 1.90 ❌ Astralis ML @ 2.50 ❌ Passion UA/NaVi Over 2.5 @ 2.10 ❌ 9INE ML @ 1.72 YTD: +5.36u | Record: 18–11 (29 bets) | ROI: 18.5%

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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
2–4 day, down –2.43u. ✅ G2/Mongolz Over 2.5 @ 1.85 ✅ NiP ML @ 1.72 ❌ FURIA/Astralis Over 2.5 @ 1.90 ❌ Astralis ML @ 2.50 ❌ Passion UA/NaVi Over 2.5 @ 2.10 ❌ 9INE ML @ 1.72 YTD: +5.36u | Record: 18–11 (29 bets) | ROI: 18.5%
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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
1u on 9INE ML @ 1.72 No-vig fair: 53.79% | Model: 57.04% EV ≈ +0.06u (+3.25 pp | +5.7% ROI) Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.06u; SD ≈ 0.94u. Another spot where market underrates — 9INE slightly stronger on my sheet.
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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
1u on Passion UA/NaVi Over 2.5 Maps @ 2.10 No-vig fair: 44.0% | Model: 48.2% EV ≈ +0.05u (+4.2 pp | +4.8% ROI) Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.05u; SD ≈ 1.01u. Series looks scrappier than market implies — live for 3 maps.
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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
1u on NiP ML @ 1.72 No-vig fair: 53.79% | Model: 57.49% EV ≈ +0.06u (+3.7 pp | +5.7% ROI) Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.06u; SD ≈ 0.93u. Model likes NiP’s win rate more than market — playable edge.
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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
1u on G2/Mongolz Over 2.5 Maps @ 1.85 No-vig fair: 50.0% | Model: 53.0% EV ≈ +0.05u (+3.0 pp | +4.5% ROI) Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.05u; SD ≈ 0.99u. Live dog spot for Mongolz makes this lean to three maps — thin but playable.
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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
1u on Astralis ML @ 2.50 No-vig fair: 37.2% | Model: 43.0% EV ≈ +0.08u (+5.8 pp | +7.5% ROI) Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.08u; SD ≈ 1.24u. Books still underrating Astralis — model gives them a live shot.
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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
1u on Passion UA ML @ 1.92 No-vig fair: 48.1% | Model: 52.4% EV ≈ +0.06u (+4.3 pp | +6.1% ROI) Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.06u; SD ≈ 0.99u. Model makes Passion UA a small favorite — taking the number.
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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
1u on FURIA/Astralis Over 2.5 Maps @ 1.90 No-vig fair: 48.64% | Model: 51.64% EV ≈ +0.03u (+3.0 pp | +3.3% ROI) Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.03u; SD ≈ 0.97u. Model leans toward a 3-map series — playable edge.
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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
No time for picks, head quant vibe coder @zooyawkcity is just getting off work and needs to sleep. Back at it tomorrow
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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
1.5u on Tyloo ML @ 1.82 Implied: 50.81% | Model: 58.00% EV ≈ +0.08u (+7.2 pp | +5.6% ROI) Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.08u; SD ≈ 1.35u. Market has Tyloo slight favs — my model makes them solidly ahead. YTD: +8.37u
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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
Went 2-2 on the slate today 🔄 ✅ Aurora ML @ 2.00 ✅ Falcons -1.5 @ 1.92 ❌ Astralis -1.5 @ 2.50 ❌ Lynn Vision ML @ 1.72 (2u) Net: -1.08u YTD: +8.37u | Record: 15-6 (21 bets) Small step back but model’s still printing — back at it tomorrow 🔄🔥
EZEV@itsEZEV

1u on Aurora ML @ 2.00 Implied: 46.27% | Model: 53.00% EV ≈ +0.06u (+6.73 pp | +6.0% ROI) Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.06u; SD ≈ 1.00u. Market has FURIA favored — my model makes Aurora the better team here. We fire. YTD: +9.45u

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EZEV
EZEV@itsEZEV·
1u on Astralis -1.5 @ 2.50 Implied: 37.2% | Model: 43.0% EV ≈ +0.08u (+5.8 pp | +7.5% ROI) Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.08u; SD ≈ 1.24u. Market’s too short on the sweep — model has Astralis cleaning this up more often. YTD: +9.45u
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