Oleg Itskhoki

*Trade war: my theory of the case* 1. What is the goal/ideal outcome/trump admin hopes: 10% tariff across the board with no retaliation + direct non-tariff favors from other countries to settle this at 10% + a possible full-scale bilateral trade war with China. (1/n)

I am happy to share that in Fall 2026 I’ll be joining @PSEinfo as an Assistant Professor! I’m deeply grateful to my advisors Lee Ohanian, @itskhoki, and @arielburst, and the amazing UCLA Econ community for their support and guidance. Huge thanks as well to my friends and family!

@itskhoki + my signature third edition of the Jackson Hole International Trade, Macro and Finance conference was a huge hit. POW + suberb research. Thank you all! @arielburst @fab_perri @skalemliozcan @glviolante @roozbeh52 Check out the program here: sites.google.com/view/ifm-jh-20…

Here is our recorded AEA session aeaweb.org/webcasts/2026/… at #ASSA2026 on tariffs and the dollar w/ @itskhoki , @JSchreger , @krogoff , @MartinUribeEcon. Interesting conversations w/presenters, discussants and the audience on understanding tariffs' impact on the economy: what happened, can tariffs be good, models and reality, how countries compete, why the dollar went the wrong way and what the future may hold for the dollar and the U.S.

Market distortions make real exchange rates a misleading measure of relative social costs. An alternative measure finds much better risk sharing than the canonical approach, from Mark A. Aguiar, @itskhoki, and @MukhinDA nber.org/papers/w34587

My paper joint with Tania @TaniaBabina , Ben @ben_hilgenstock, Oleg @itskhoki , Elina @elinaribakova, and Nataliia @Nataliia_Shapo "Russian oil exports under international sanctions" was just published at Energy Economics: sciencedirect.com/science/articl… You can read it for free until January 24, 2026

A unifying empirical framework for covered and uncovered currency premia, interest rates and spot and forward exchange rates, both in the cross section and time series of currencies, from Mai C. Dao, @pogourinchas, and @itskhoki nber.org/papers/w34443

Tariffs, global imbalances, and the dollar Oleg Itskhoki @itskhoki @Harvard @HarvardEcon, Dmitry Mukhin @MukhinDA @LSEnews @LSEEcon ow.ly/xA1Z50Xoe7y

Recent changes in US policies have altered trade relationships and the international role of the dollar. @itskhoki Itskhoki joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the sources and consequences of these shifts. econofact.org/podcast/the-un…

[Reading Group IP week 5] Last week, we covered the 2019 Ecma paper by O. Itskhoki and B. Moll, “Optimal development policies with financial frictions.” They ask how governments in emerging countries can accelerate economic development by intervening in labor and capital markets, 1/5

"This paper explains how do trade and financial sanctions affect the exchange rate and fiscal capacity of the target country and what are the costs to sender" New paper from @itskhoki and @MukhinDA: restud.com/sanctions-and-… #econtwitter #REStud

N. Gregory Mankiw, Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University, presented the 2025 Martin Feldstein Lecture on "The Fiscal Future." youtube.com/watch?v=B916t3…

Slides for today's @nberpubs ITI session on trade war, streamed here: nber.org/conferences/si… dropbox.com/scl/fi/d7nhquk…

Headed to NBER SI. In addition to seeing the latest research, I'm looking forward to the panels on "The Future Impacts Of Current Trade Policy" (@itskhoki, @skalemliozcan, @akhandelwal8, Rodriguez-Clare) & "The Future of the Global Economy" (@itskhoki, @paulkrugman, Tesar).

the missing 20-30 year olds are great grandchildren of WWII and children of the 1990s, now whiped out by putin in Ukraine ... speaking of long-term strategic consequences for the country and the region

and this is the scary looking gender-age pyramid without even reflecting yet the consequences of this war

something i would not be able to comprehend...

Good news, restoring some faith in american voters

Alternatively, financial and trade rebalancing may happen if a tariff war results in the loss of privilege and the associated dollar depreciation.

Unlike expenditure switching and Lerner symmetry, closing trade deficit calls for an appreciation of USD to a level that depends solely on the US external financial position, not on trade shares or elasticities, and can be achieved with an import tariff or an export subsidy.

What is the optimal macroeconomic tariff when trade is imbalanced and the policy objectives go beyond social welfare and also include fiscal revenues, increasing the number of manufacturing jobs, and closing a trade deficit?

Alternatively, financial and trade rebalancing may happen if a tariff war results in the loss of privilege and the associated dollar depreciation.

with the costs from negative valuation effects on the country’s gross financial position. In our model calibrated to the US, its large external dollar liabilities reduce the optimal tariff three-fold, from 34% to 9%, and act as a hedge for its trade partners against a trade war.