Jonas Gebele

@miniapeur @RefineInk

I have a draft of a paper, and I am thinking of using a chatbot to review it (grammar, general flow/structure, mistakes, and suggestions). Does anyone have experience with this, and which chatbot is best for this?

@gemchange_ltd @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade This is much more complicated... Both odds should be more or less 99.9%. Jesus Christ market is at 96% cause of the cost-of-capital of the No position. Benin also has the cost-of-capital, but since its a neg-risk market, the discount spreads across multiple books.

Chances of the second coming of Jesus Christ is higher than any non-ruling party winning Benin's parliamentary election weeks before they occurred Even an attempt of coup in December 2025 and political turmoil haven't moved the odds in any way President Talon's coalition just swept half of 109 seats and won the election Everything you need to know about worldwide politics

If prediction markets are to scale as a global information layer, they require machine-verifiable representations of events, not just more liquidity. Paper incl. prompts: arxiv.org/abs/2601.01706 Dataset coming soon.

Bottom line: Prediction market prices do not diverge because traders are irrational or liquidity is low. They diverge because event identity is not enforceable across platforms. Prices currently aggregate information locally, not globally.

📄New prediction market paper. Prediction markets are meant to aggregate information into prices. But today’s ecosystem is fragmented across platforms, and prices often diverge. Our paper explains why this happens and how large the problem really is ⤵️ arxiv.org/abs/2601.01706