Jacob Schauer

Link to my website so you can find your team and tell me why the computers have them in the wrong spot: Team Ratings: schauerstats.github.io/D3Ratings.html Game Predictions: schauerstats.github.io/D3Predictions.…

Games against Carlow, Penn St Brandywine, Regent, and JWU Charlotte were not considered in order to mimic NPI. This explains discrepancies such as UMW being 29-3 instead of 30-3

My resume score tries to quantify how impressive each team’s record was considering the specific opponents they won and lost to. While there’s no perfect answer, I’m generally happy with how this turned out. #d3hoops schauerstats.github.io/D3Resume.html

@d3datacast Thanks for all the work this year! Such a cool resource, and also a source of inspiration for me on the data side. My computer also technically has UMW favored (50.3%), but the point spread is essentially a pick ‘em. I think Massey has Emory -3, so it should be a great game

🚨NEW EPISODE ALERT!🚨 We're rested and rejuvenated after a jam-packed #d3hoops weekend in Fort Wayne. Let's talk about what happened and the one game that is left for the 2025-2026 season. youtube.com/watch?v=urigVZ…

I’m just using win probabilities to get championship odds, no fancy sims that update after each game. Computers see Trinity as a decent favorite regardless

National championship odds: Trinity CT: 47% Emory: 15% Mary Washington: 9% Chicago: 8% Tufts: 8% IL Wesleyan: 5% St Thomas TX: 5% CNU: 3% All very similar to @d3datacast, so if they get called out again, just know they weren’t the only one making dubious predictions

How my model sees each #d3hoops MBB Elite 8 game tomorrow: St Thomas TX (-1) vs Christopher Newport Emory (-3.5) vs Illinois Wesleyan Trinity CT (-7) vs Tufts Mary Washington (-0.5) vs Chicago Looks like the computer thinks all 4 games should be great!

@GoMaccabees @d3datacast @BQuillmanQcast As a human, I will take Yeshiva +17.5 no problem. Also, my human-generated line is “root for your team to beat the opponent by at least one point and don’t worry about what any computer or person thinks”

Spreads for Yeshiva at #2 Emory today at 1PM in Sweet 16: @d3datacast: Emory -11 @jacob_schauer: Emory-17.5 Massey: Emory -17.5 Q-line (@BQuillmanQcast): Thoughts and prayers. Macs looking to make history by advancing to the Elite 8 as big underdogs. #d3hoops

Prestigious recognition for an accomplished player. The finalists for the 2026 Jostens Trophy have been announced, and @Wheaton_MBB 's Soren Richardson is one of 11 men's honorees under consideration for this year's award. The Jostens Trophy honors are national awards created by the Rotary Club of Salem, Va. and sponsored by Jostens, Inc. to recognize the most outstanding men's and women's Division III basketball players of the year. The awards focus on three major criteria: basketball ability, academic prowess, and service to one's surrounding communities. Richardson's selection marks the 14th time in the 28-year history of the Jostens Trophy that a Thunder men's basketball player has been tabbed as a finalist, extending Wheaton's record of the highest number of honorees by any Division III program. The winner of this year's Jostens Trophy will be announced in April following the conclusion of the National Championship games and the Division III basketball season. #LetsRoll #d3hoops

I didn't have as much time as I did last year for a full post, but using the @d3datacast numbers, here's your D3 men's odds for 2026. Yes, folks, there's already an NCAA Tournament ongoing!

Computer expects the favorites to go roughly 12-4 today. It knows the games are played on the court and not in a Python script, which means there’s lots of uncertainty and not every favorite will win!

Here’s how my computer sees today’s #d3hoops MBB second round games.

My model’s predicted favorites ended up going 26-6 today. #d3hoops

@hwalker7619121 Good call - predicted spread was good, predicted point total was a tad high

@jacob_schauer you are usually spot on, but rmc scoring in the 80s is a strong statement. the spread seems accurate. i do think they can hold ncw to the low 50s

Here are my computer-generated point spread predictions for tomorrow’s #d3hoops MBB first round games. Good luck to all the teams!

Also, I will take Yeshiva +7. I took the Macs in the Q-line poll, so I would also take Yeshiva +6. The computer consensus is Bates -5.5 for that game

My model expects the favorites to go 25-7 tomorrow, so get ready for some upsets!

@LogHanRatings @BQuillmanQcast However, I’m sure a metric that relies on a power rating that isn’t as prior-informed would be fine with 5 NESCAC, so the overall point is still valid

@LogHanRatings @BQuillmanQcast Amherst would be out in my resume score, so only 4 NESCAC

Sure. But maybe those dials should be looked at a bit. #d3hoops

@LogHanRatings Thanks, not my original idea though: evanmiya.com/?resume_metrics Seems like the framework could add context to your EAW, GAW, and AAW metrics maybe?

@jacob_schauer Interesting way of looking at resumes. I like it. Might have to steal this.

Splitting up wins and losses in my resume scoring helps me understand the types of seasons #d3hoops teams are having. Good win score: lots of wins and/or wins against quality teams Good loss score: very few losses and/or some losses against high quality teams

Some other resumes that stand out to me because of their good loss score (Farmingdale and Webster) or their good win score (Depauw and Wabash) but are also outside of the top 45 in the total resume score.

Here is how my resume scoring sees the resumes of four teams that @d3datacast and others have previously discussed.