Steve Clark

Welcome to Jagalytics - go read why passing to your team-mates matters open.substack.com/pub/jagalytics… #PartickThistle #Analytics #ptfc

@TN10Y Personally I’m ok with keeping them…no bias in me of course

Case in point.

You can read the post here: open.substack.com/pub/jagalytics…

I’m looking at different ways to quantify who are valuable to their teams, and who is hardest to replace. Including - but not limited to - the return of my WAR model of players who’ve made their team more winningy.

I published this week’s post yesterday evening. Though the game didn’t exactly ignite the heather, it’s still interesting to look into who’s most crucial in the remaining games - both those who are available and those who’ll be missing.

⚠️ ICYMI ⚠️ Whether you’re one of over 6000 heading to Firhill tonight, or following on from afar, there’s nothing that’ll get you in the mood for tonight’s huge game like this week’s DLD! 🇧🇪 Join us! 🗣️📻🎧

@GavinBe54660057 @El__Pazio Nah it’s a good spot. I was lazy explaining my methodology!

@El__Pazio @jagalytics Aye, missed the fraction bit, just poor reading on my part.

Of the nineteen players with 5+ league goals in the championship this season, none have a higher fraction of them that changed the game state (draw->ahead or behind->draw) than Alex Samuel. Clutch.

McPake is obviously consistently a game changer in almost every scenario this season which is why he’s been signed by Hearts and he’s earned Saints loads of points. But I think Samuel has an uncanny knack for big moments that have kept us in the race a few times.

Samuel’s % is unusual because he’s been scoring when the game plan has already evolved. Hale and McPake are the only others to break 50% of these state-change-but-not-the-first goals.

To clarify, I’ve reported this stat in the past - I generally exclude the first goal of the game from this (0-0 to 1-0) as I think that’s a bit different - teams are playing their initial game plan at 0-0. McKenzie at Ayr has scored 71% of his goals as the first of the game

@GavinBe54660057 I’m excluding first goal of the game as that’s a slightly different beast - was going to pay about that soon. McPake has 7 by this metric - 50%. Even adding his two opening goals, he’s at 64%. Samuel at 67%.

@jagalytics McPake has changed it 9 times this season from what I can see unless I'm misunderstanding.

@GraemeMeldrum Totally

@jagalytics That makes it sound worse

@GraemeMeldrum Actually 18! I’d miscounted on my list.

@jagalytics Wait a minute, only 19 players in the whole league have scored 5 or more goals 😲

Want a laugh? Ben Stanway has scored 9 goals (NINE) since Kyle Ure last featured in a first team win (18th October, v Morton), including a winner against Ayr United after dispossessing Ure in the Ayr box.

It's been about a month since I last ran BOING - 100,000 simulations based on form, season-long performance, and remaining games, to predict the likely outcome of the league. Based on games up to last weekend (not including the midweek game), here's the likely range of points...

This photo gives me an almost overwhelming sense of nostalgia.

Dunfermline's median points count is slightly ahead of Ayr and QP (who are basically dead level in sims), and there is a real three-way slog for the final play-off place if BOING is any judge. You can see the breakdown here: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WHGHk/1/

Historically, the team that wins the league gets somewhere in the 66-80 point range, and second place gets 59-69. That's the range that St. J and Thistle are in respectively. Arbroath still overtake Thistle in some sims, but fewer as the weeks go on.