James Deveron

The brain doesn't burn out from stress, it burns out from emotional overthinking... Here's the cure 🧵

@Younez_EW Younez, are you tracking a running triangle or running flat off the Jan 2025 high? 3 waves off the ath may be complete for triangle, or 3 of 3 complete now in a 5 wave of c for the flat. Thoughts?

Bitcoin's rapid ascent earlier this year was celebrated as confirmation of widespread adoption. Today's equally sharp retracement should come as no surprise. 🌊🌊 #RTW

I wanted to give everyone something meaningful, a gift… This comes from Global Macro Investor (GMI) and a deep, long-running body of research developed by @RaoulGMI and myself. Many of you already know The Everything Code, which is our framework for understanding the macro landscape and why major central banks are debasing their currencies to manage aging demographics and overwhelming debt loads. I call this a gift because these four charts, while only scratching the surface of The Everything Code, give you the big-picture context you actually need in moments like this. They stop you from getting lost in every Bitcoin pullback and explain why Raoul and I never panic, even when, to borrow one of his expressions, everyone’s acting like monkeys throwing poo at each other. Once you understand The Everything Code, you stop trading short-term noise and expand your time horizon. You cannot unsee it. The starting point is what we call The Magic Formula: GDP growth = population growth + productivity growth + debt growth. Population growth and productivity growth have been falling for decades. Debt growth is the only thing filling the gap. The private sector has been deleveraging since 2008, mainly households, but debt levels are still around 120% of GDP. The public sector sits at roughly the same level. Here’s the problem… If the government is running debt at 100% of GDP and the private sector is sitting on another 100%, and for simple math we call rates 2% even though they are really closer to 4%, then the entire 2% trend growth of the economy is being consumed by servicing private-sector debts. That is a completely unproductive use of GDP. And then there’s the issue of public-sector debts. There’s just not enough organic growth to service the existing debt load. To understand why this dynamic persists, you need demographics. Birth rates peaked in the late 1950s and have been declining ever since. This shows up about sixteen years later in the labor force participation rate as each generation enters the workforce (chart 1). That means the labor force participation rate is not going to rise any time soon. It is set to keep drifting lower. This is a structural problem. Aging populations, falling birth rates, and rapidly expanding automation make the backdrop even more deflationary. AI and robotics are replacing humans at scale, and we are only at the beginning. This reinforces the need for ongoing stimulus to keep the system functioning. With weak population growth and sluggish productivity, the only way to keep GDP expanding is through debt. Now here’s where it gets interesting… Government debt growth is completely offsetting the demographic decline and policymakers know exactly what they are doing (chart 2). And what happens next? All debt growth in excess of GDP gets monetized (chart 3). Basically, since 2008, magic money has effectively been paying the interest. Governments issue new debt to cover old interest, and once rates fall enough, central banks absorb it onto their balance sheets. So to wrap this up, demographics drive the decline in the labor force. Governments offset that decline with more debt. That debt eventually gets monetized through quantitative easing (QE) style operations, not always directly by the Fed, but through the coordinated ecosystem of the Fed, the Treasury, and the banking system. And the bottom line is that there’s still a massive wall of interest that needs to be monetized, far more than GDP can ever cover. Liquidity is literally the only game in town. And what thrives in a world of perpetual debasement? Bitcoin (chart 4). I know this correction has been painful, but it’s all part of the journey. These periods feel brutal in the moment, then they fade and the trend resumes. This too shall pass… To quote Walter White from Breaking Bad, later echoed by @LynAldenContact, nothing stops this train. MOAR COWBELL (liquidity) = number go up over time. Zoom out and be more bullish…

@ChurchOfTheSCF The pastor returneth

Interesting area for long SUI/BTC

@daremarket this will be interesting

dare market is now live. welcome to the most unhinged platform on the internet. app.daremarket.com reply for an invite code.

Patiently waiting @RaoulGMI

Steps to enter: 1. Join the waitlist below rvtv.io/485g9Ot 2. Drop the email confirmation of your waitlist entry 3. Like and retweet the main post above Start here! 👇

@harmonictrader *coinbase chart

@harmonictrader Scott, is there a bearish shark emerging on BTC since 6th Oct? Fake out the lows, defy all the bearish continuation traders, gain bullish sentiment, take the highs, lower. Makes sense, this whole cycle has been fuckery.

Harmonic Pattern Podcast #458 with Scott Carney - Gold/BTC + Harmonic Patterns x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@_imagyn Some meanings get lost in translation

lucky that my breasts are small and humble so you don't confuse them with mountains

@YaboyB_Hux Oh Benji 🥺

Just wanted to pop back on here for a second to say sorry for the absence I’ve been real life maxing for a bit and enjoying time with the family Took them to Japan for about 3 weeks, and when i got back i found out my sister was really sick Unfortunately she passed on Wednesday, so I’m just trying to come to terms with everything. The cig always stays lit And I’ll be back and better than ever $scf 🚬🐓🐟

@KC_Ryosuke @Scallop_io That was a close one, but scallop saved my ass. Grateful 🙏 I'm a devoted user now.

💧📉The black swan sent $SUI crashing and froze most DEXs — but one protocol stood tall: @Scallop_io As Sui’s lending protocol, Scallop doesn’t rely on looping leverage and uses oracle-based liquidation prices instead of exchange feeds. This design meant minimal bad debt and fair liquidations during the flash crash. If you’re wondering where to borrow safely on Sui — this event just gave you the answer. 👀 W @djchrisssssss #SuiNetwork #DeFi

@Don_Aper @RaoulGMI Feel that. Don't despair.

@RaoulGMI Thought 2x leverage on a big coin like this was safe. Completely ruined.

Well that was a gift for anyone who had stables... haha. Perfect test of bottom of wedge in SUI and back into the small flag pattern we were in before...

@RaoulGMI utter chaos. Imagine what it will do to the upside though.

@punk6529 Level me; I own a property in the city, I own land in the country. I live in a small trailer (3 years) as I try to build a home (planning and building myself) with no prior experience. I work 50 hours a week. I have 5 fig savings in crypto. I have debt.

28/ So to conclude L1: We hurt for you and hope some day we can help L2: Hustle, if you can (it is really hard) L3: Enjoy. This might be the best place for most. L4: Also Enjoy. But be careful. Traps everywhere. L5: ♥️

23/ Maybe, if golf is what self-actualizes you, if the dedication and challenge of mastering golf lifts you to your highest version of yourself, then by all means your Level 5 is "play golf" But often, Level 5 means something else

@Max_Newton Congrats max ❤️

I promise…I’ll sell this time…as long as you let me get one more golden bulla run for this lil guy coming 2026 🙌

Either way it looks like SUI/BTC is going higher, and these moves line up with the idea that SUI's REAL trend beginning was Aug '24, and will continue through to Q1 '26.

and I would bring that wave E of 4 down to $3ish

The other (more popular) idea, is this. Wave 4 is a barrier triangle, but I don't like the depth of it at all. Looks much better as a wave 2.