Jan Bodnar

@DonWedge Progress

What is the first word you see, comment below and be honest 👇

@AlejandroLosag1 @martypartymusic The contraction nearing its end?

Altcoins since 2017

@skibumtrading Is that a freaking monthly hammer?

Am I dreaming right now? $KAS

@AltcoinPiooners @AshCrypto Hmm. x.com/karlbooklover/…

$BTC CME Daily 🔥 Exactly as planned: swept the range low, took all the stops under $85K and closed the day with a massive reversal wick 🧹🕯️ That’s the biggest CME daily hammer since March 2023 bottom 👀 Gap at ~$85.6K now filled → magnet gone Next unfilled gap above at $95.8K acting as upside target this week 🚀 This was the final shakeout. Institutions loaded the dip, retail panicked — classic. New range: $88-100K Target by December: $108-112K still 100% in play 🎯 #Bitcoin #BTC #CMEgap

Bitcoin CME gap has been filled.

@AltcoinPiooners @SatoshiFlipper Here is a question. You have lost billions. What do you do, sell assets and exit/go to long bear or sell assets aggressively to buy back lower, spike the prices and cut your (some) losses quickly.

Flipper nails it – Oct 10 black swan nuked the books, forcing MM liquidations that dwarfed prior cycles' drawdowns 📉 Monthly MACD flip? Noise in a macro/liquidity storm, not the endgame. TA's a tool, not gospel when $DXY spikes & rates bite. This $84K flush is the purge: STH underwater, reserves at ATL, ETFs diamond-hands. $83-85K holds (Fib + vol shelf) → no deeper dip, just setup for $120K+ reversal once liquidity floods back Q1 '26. Cycle believers: zoom out, history rhymes harder than it breaks. Accumulate the chaos 💎🩸 #Bitcoin #BTCCycle #Crypto

What 4 year cycle believers looking at the monthly MACD and other technical indicators need to understand is that there the current $BTC correction is a black swan event. It's much deeper than the other corrections we've had and it's all attributed to the Oct 10th shenanigans and the forced selling aftermath by market makers with deep holes in their balance sheet. We still don't know who they are and what kind of losses they face as a result of what happened on Oct 10th. We don't live in a strictly TA world, we live in a macro/liquidity world and TA indicators can often times be misleading. There are still tons of questions that need to be answered and they will be over time.

@karlbooklover There are rumors circulating that couple of MMs were badly hurt on 10/10. Relentless US selling and that desperation you mentioned earlier may explain this, also why alts hold. So maybe when they sell everything we may have the spring?!

Bulls will have their spring action soon

@Shan_Specter @StockmoneyL I noticed the surge in longs on Bitfinex on the retrace. But how would you explain that?

Bitcoin 6th high velocity, high volume rejection and failed breakout of this decending rendline (in real-time).

@CryptoGirlNova It's not just these charts. Confluence everywhere. When Gold hit ATH recently and people were lining on the streets to buy it, the fear greed index was 99. What happened afterwards? For crypto it is now freaking 10.

All roads lead to Bitcoin first. We can talk about altseason, we can talk about bitcoin dominance, we can talk about others outperforming. But the only thing that matters right now is fully confirming Bitcoin has bottomed. And sadly that's way to early to tell right now. There will be a time when there are. But that's not yet today. Dropping chart later today 🤝

@Sykodelic_ The problem is maybe not the 4 year cycle. We can top in 4.5 years and it's still a valid point. The problem is expecting the cycle to hold exactly 4 years to a month. As the experience in stocks tell us, cycles do vary in time.

I'll say it again... We are NOT going into a prolonged bear market. I am seeing a crazy amount of people flipping their entire bias today because the 50SMA closed below... And thinking Bitcoin is just going to follow the exact same path into a bear market, drop 75% over the same time period, and let them scoop up the lows happy as larry. It's absolutely wild stuff. Almost everyone has been totally and utterly manipulated by the big wigs who KNOW that they're all looking at the 4 year cycle, and they're using it against them. It is the most commonly accepted thing amongst crypto investors. Guys... you cannot just look back at what has happened before, and use that as your absolute guide to what WILL happen next. Everyone is comparing this to 2021 thinking they have it all figured out... do you really think it is that easy? That you can just look at what happened last cycle, and use that as your absolute guide? Fuck no you can't. Here are the facts. We are in a TOTALLY different macro situation to 2021....It literally could not be more different. And Bitcoin + the wider Crypto market, are utter vehicles of liquidity. And if you are going to try and analyse where we are and what is happening, you have to take this into account before anything else. November 2021: - TOTAL surged 400% - Inflation hit 9% - Post $3tn stimulus(biggest ever) - Bank reserves $4.2tn(massive excess) - TGA $50bn(pretty much empty) - QT approaching - PMI level 61(expansion) Today: - TOTAL pushed 40%(all BTC gains) - Inflation 2.9% - Post 2.5 years of tightening - Bank reserves $2.8tn(almost at limit) - TGA $1tn(highest amount in 4 years) - QT ending - PMI level 48(contraction) Literally the polar opposite. 2021 was post massive stimulus and growth... contraction was coming next. 2025 is post massive contraction and drainage.... expansion is coming next. If you think you have the game sussed out because you can pull up one trend line and a MACD, you are going to be very sadly mistaken. Right now, we are much closer to 2019 than 2021. If you cannot see the insanely stark differences in the macroeconomic outlook you are a fool.

@cesarxacc @Sykodelic_ I read the whole post very carefully. He outlined specific timeline which can be easily verified. We shall see.

@Sykodelic_ you expect someone reads all that essay ?

@karlbooklover Do you mean that they were afraid to cause the price to drop too much?

They pulled the 100k cluster in order to dump it in-place. LOL. Pretty desperate whales right there #BTC

@seth_fin Marty party has these live liquidity charts. The last significant large pool was around 93700. It is the price we bottomed so far. (Kucoin) Operation save the weekly may be on the way.

Sunday pumps are fake pumps they say. What about Sunday dumps. Not fake?

@TxnXray @CryptoGirlNova Maybe, but small detail. BTC.D was half of today's value.

@CryptoGirlNova solid take, fam. 2022 bear showed dom drops while alts cratered 90%+ vs usd. trend always king.

While I think Bitcoin dominance can be a useful metric for some stuff, it's also absolutely worthless for other things. An example that no one seems to understand: Bitcoin dominance can be bearish and drop while alts still nuke. Not in Bitcoin pair maybe but your entire portfolio can absolutely nuke compared to fiat, compared to gold or whatever you're looking at while bitcoin dominance is dropping. It doesn't mean there's an altseason. It means bitcoin is just dropping harder than alts are. Basically: Bitcoin dominance dropping in a bullish market is absolutely great. Bitcoin dominance dropping in a bearish market however won't save anyone. Trend > bitcoin dominance

@CryptoGirlNova Not when BTC.D is 59% and potentially goes to 40%. Every 1% is a huge pump for alts. Also bear market must be confirmed on weekly basis. Plus alts may easily rally on BTC relief rallies.

@CryptoBullGod This is in fact an insanely bullish chart, paired with the fact that btc.d is about to plummet and fear and greed index is extremely low. Yet the emotions...

Monthly View of Others Charted against $BTC It would benefit most of you to zoom out and chill No one said this would be easy; quite the contrary #Bitcoin #ALTSEASON COMETH #KASPA $KAS

@el_crypto_prof Thanks for the encouragement!

#Altcoins What Altcoins will print in the coming weeks and months will amaze many. We had to wait a long, long time and it was incredibly difficult to predict when, but it has been written in the charts for years. I hope this has been helpful to you. 🫡 Patience was the key.

@lava_xbt We shall see by the end of year.

@janbodnar How'd that altcoin season since August go? 😂

If you're down bad and still holding sh*tcoins, you have to do something that 99% cannot do. You have to just accept the fact that you've been lied to and played by the whales. They stole your money while feeding you bullsh*t narratives on purpose. Exit and make a fresh start

@lava_xbt No. Only told you in August that your ridiculing of altseason will not age well. Just like your hero last year one day before elections expected yet another pullback, you preach selling alts at the very bottom...

@janbodnar You the same guy bull posting every top last few months?

@IncomeSharks There are things that back this up, gold and stocks peak and go down, seasonality, end of cycle money rotation, crypto fear and greed at extreme fear...

$OTHERS - If we can actually get this to break out it will indicate we actually have some staying power with this recent trend. Right now money is moving around but if this can sustain we could actually attract outside money. Too early to celebrate but looking promising.