Jason Murphy

1.5K posts

Jason Murphy

@jasonjmurphy1

Football Odds Compiler & Trader @paddypower & @Betfair Views and (especially) tips are my own.

Katılım Ekim 2016

740 Takip Edilen1.4K Takipçiler

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·21 Şub

Great to be in the studio again for this week's Racing Postcast. Giroud worth a start if Tammy isnt fit, Real & Bayern value next week in UCL, Haaland can do EVERYTHING, "great" unbeaten runs, greater cups of tea, and Villarreal the NAP ⚽️☕️⚽️

Racing Post@RacingPost

⚽ FOOTBALL POSTCAST ⚽ Join @JackReeveTNC, @aWilsher94 & @paddypower’s @jasonjmurphy1 with their best bets for the weekend. 🎧Spotify: spoti.fi/32dkj2K 🍎Apple: apple.co/38LNbl0 ▶ YouTube: youtu.be/9q352NoZYiw

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·7 Şub

How often does Kolo Muani think about that chance in the World Cup final? At least once a day? I think of it every time see him play

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Jason Murphy retweetledi

Julian Canny@juliancanny·9 Eyl

I genuinely prefer Ger Canning as a commentator. #ArmIrl

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·27 Ağu

ZXX

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·20 Haz

@NeilMac555 @iwasvvdrunk @Tgb456123 @Lord420Degen @Messe1989 @luca10534758 Hope all is well with you chief. Was only quick look, @iwasvvdrunk correct

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Neil Mac@NeilMac555·20 Haz

@jasonjmurphy1 @iwasvvdrunk @Tgb456123 @Lord420Degen @Messe1989 @luca10534758 Haven't seen you tweet in forever! hope you're well

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Neil Mac@NeilMac555·20 Haz

Atleti are going to fuck us here

Neil Mac@NeilMac555

You can take this to the bank

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·20 Haz

@iwasvvdrunk @Tgb456123 @Lord420Degen @Messe1989 @NeilMac555 @luca10534758 Noted @iwasvvdrunk 👍

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Rowley Birkin QC@iwasvvdrunk·20 Haz

@jasonjmurphy1 @Tgb456123 @Lord420Degen @Messe1989 @NeilMac555 @luca10534758 Otherwise you could just back atleti to qualify at 3/1 instead of the -1 handicap at ~7/4.

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·20 Haz

@iwasvvdrunk @Tgb456123 @Lord420Degen @Messe1989 @NeilMac555 @luca10534758 Quick look, Atleti need win by 2 goals to guarantee qualification. If PSG fail to win, Atleti qualify 6 pts. If PSG win, 3 teams 6 points. Each team beaten one of the others. Therefore +ve GD would see PSG through, with Atleti level GD Botafogo but through on more goals scored

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Rowley Birkin QC@iwasvvdrunk·20 Haz

@Tgb456123 @Lord420Degen @Messe1989 @NeilMac555 @luca10534758 Atletico need to beat botafogo by 3 goals to guarantee qualification. 2 goals & a psg win will see them go out on h2h’s between the 3 teams on 6 pts.

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·1 Şub

Thoughts with Ireland handicap backers at this difficult time

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Jason Murphy retweetledi

Emmet O'Keeffe@WoefulPunditry·17 Oca

Really enjoyed making my debut on the Betfair NFL pod previewing the best weekend of the year for 🏈 lovers. Best bet of the weekend is in the player props with Josh Allen over 8.5 Rush attempts at 10/11 in Bills v Ravens. All likes & retweets much appreciated open.spotify.com/episode/3PkwtM…

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·16 Eki

Simple answer is because this appointment gives you a better chance of es kommt nach Hause🤷‍♂️

Sky Sports News@SkySportsNews

"They need to answer, why not an Englishman" 👀 Danny Mills on the FA's appointment of Thomas Tuchel as new England manager 👔

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·5 Eki

Good, quick little read this. Simple use of stats that give a good insight into where United are at since Ferguson bbc.com/sport/football…

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·2 Eki

Bit of a contradiction here in BBC match report...

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·14 Tem

in 1913, a game of roulette in a Monte Carlo casino saw the ball land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers in the casino began placing huge bets on red, as they believed the frequency of the past black lands couldn't be repeated. Will it be 27 times 🇪🇸 Spanish teams tonight??

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·14 Tem

just to finish with this stat from @soccerbase 🇪🇸 Spain or Spanish teams have been in 26 finals in the last 23 years - World Cup, Euros, Champions League, Europa League... they have won all 26. Reminded me of the 'gamblers fallacy' and the example often used...

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·14 Tem

Overall, 🇪🇸 went off favs vs 🇩🇪🇫🇷 and performed reasonably as expected. Whereas 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿, bar 🇳🇱 game, have underperformed. Small sample size, so expect 🇪🇸 to be good & 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 to be closer to level performance shown in SF but still, when it is all over, it is 43% chance it's coming home...

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·14 Tem

Building on the point by @Zonal_Marking using bookmakers expectations to further illustrate how "poor"🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 have been. Consistent underperformance offensively in every match and defensively against 🇸🇰🇨🇭. However, 6 game sample of NPXG contains a lot of noise/variation, therefore...

Michael Cox@Zonal_Marking

has Southgate truly "silenced the doubters"? Or have the doubters (who probably think some variation of "the team has been poor considering so many individuals are capable of brilliance") basically been right? I suppose they have been silenced, but not really proven wrong.

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·14 Tem

Checked last 6 EUROs Finals odds, tonight will be the closest of any of them. Good news for 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 heading into tonight is that 3 of them were won by underdog but bad news is 🇪🇸 went off fav in 2 of the last 6and won both...

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·14 Tem

...as you can see 🇪🇸 before QFs, general over-performance vs expectation & rating adjusted upwards. However QF & SF, certainly no over-performance. Context important though, eg vs 🇩🇪 when 1-0 up they sat back (this is why an "Atletico Madrid" underperform NPXG over longer sample)

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·14 Tem

Bookmakers would have adjusted down England's rating after each match, and their current rating sees them NPXG 0.9 vs 1.2 against 🇪🇸, whereas pre-tournament that would be reversed as 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿were 3/1 favs and 🇪🇸 8/1 (5th favs). If the tournament started tomorrow 🇪🇸 would be 3/1 favs...

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·14 Tem

that is why in tournament football (6-7 games) the best team does not always win the trophy. England really "poor" versus expectation & you could rightly say lucky, but then again you make your own luck too (Bellingham bicycle, the pens prep, Kane making sure of a VAR review)...

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Jason Murphy@jasonjmurphy1·10 Tem

Not surprised... most people trying to save a few quid will shop at Iceland

Ireland Football ⚽️🇮🇪@IrelandFootball

The Football Association of Ireland has confirmed Heimir Hallgrímsson as the new Head Coach of the Senior Men’s National Team 🇮🇪 The former Iceland and Jamaica manager takes charge of the Ireland MNT, with his first game against England on September 7 🤩 Welcome Heimir 💚 Full story here ➡️ fai.ie/latest/heimir-…

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Keşfet

@NeilMac555 @iwasvvdrunk @Tgb456123 @Lord420Degen @Messe1989 @luca10534758 @soccerbase @Zonal_Marking