Jure Atanackov

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·16m

@msmstarr @SunWeatherMan What Ben's stats? And I said SC25 is a snooze fest in terms of intense storms - based in the stats.

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msta@msmstarr·18m

@JAtanackov @SunWeatherMan So, have you run stats to challenge Ben's? Yes, SC25 is quite a "snoozefest" in terms of CME intensity, so why are we seeing so many 8ntense storms? 🤔🤔

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·2d

My Top 4 auroras of Solar Cycle 25: #1 - 10-11 May 2024 G5 Gannon storm #2 - 10-11 October 2024 G4 storm #3 - 19-20 January 2026 G4 storm #4 - 5 November 2023 G3 storm (tied with the 11-12 November 2025 G4) Yours? The most interesting part? All of the aurora of SC25 happened in the last three years. All of the action, big geomagnetic storms, big aurora - only the last 3 years.

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·56m

@brockpierson Red Alert ftw.

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⭕ Brock Pierson@brockpierson·6h

This is the truth

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·1h

As far as flares vs. storm intensity is concerned: flares don't cause geomagnetic storms, CMEs do. You need to analyze CMEs and their impact, not flares. FWIW, the 20 November 2003 G4 storm (DSTmin = -422 nT) was caused by a CME from an M5 (+filament), the 6-7 April 2000 G4 storm (DSTmin = -292 nT) was caused by a CME from an M1.4 (+filament) and the 12 August 2000 G4 storm (DSTmin = -234 nT) was caused by a CME from a filament eruption, no significant flare. Interestingly, all of them are stronger than the November 2025 event, and none are in that list.

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·1h

Beware of cherry picked and misleading samples. That list of geomagnetic storms is meaningless. It is cherry picked, with no clear selection criterion and is at best very incomplete and realistically misleading. You need to set a criterion to select geomagnetic storms and compare them between cycles. Is the threshold G4 level or higher as it seems to be? Then in Solar Cycle 25 there have so far been 16 days with reached G4 storm conditions (not even including G5). SC24 had 9 days, SC23 had 40 days. So: SC25=16, SC24=9, SC23=40. If you go further, then even SC23 is exceeded by the strong solar cycles in the middle and late 20th century, SC22 had 45 and SC19 had 74 (!!). You could also set the lower limit at the lowest |DSTmin| of the listed SC25 storms, which would be "Nov 2025" event (11-12 November 2025 G4) with |DSTmin|=209 nT. In this case SC25 has so far had 6 such events, SC24 had 1, SC23 had 14. So: SC25=6, SC24=1, SC23=14. From the numbers there is no indication of any excessive number of strong geomagnetic storms in SC25. Compared to SC23, SC22, SC19 and other active cycles it's a bit of a snooze fest. The only reason why it seems active to some is due to SC24 being absolutely glacial.

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·1d

@landon_wx You OK?

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Landon Moeller@landon_wx·1d

Got hailed on at Whataburger in Midland, TX

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·1d

Just for kicks, my Top 4 auroras of Solar Cycle 23: #1 - 30-31 October 2003 G5 Halloween storm. Photo: Jure Zakrajšek (COBS). #1 - 20 November 2003 G4 storm. Photo: Javor Kac (Skies of Slovenia YT). #3 - 15-16 July 2000 G5 Bastille day storm. Photo: Javor Kac. #4 - 21-22 October, 2001 G3 storm. No photos, unfortunately, but a beautiful event (a lot like the 5 November 2023 G3 storm). I missed way too many great storms during SC23, most to bad weather, others to ... not being prepared. SC23 had ten (10) events with DSTmin < -250 nT. SC25 has so far had two. SC23 was fun. Lots of fun.

My Top 4 auroras of Solar Cycle 25: #1 - 10-11 May 2024 G5 Gannon storm #2 - 10-11 October 2024 G4 storm #3 - 19-20 January 2026 G4 storm #4 - 5 November 2023 G3 storm (tied with the 11-12 November 2025 G4) Yours? The most interesting part? All of the aurora of SC25 happened in the last three years. All of the action, big geomagnetic storms, big aurora - only the last 3 years.

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·1d

@msmstarr Not really. It is the most active part of the solar cycle. Why is it scary?

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msta@msmstarr·2d

@JAtanackov Have you wondered why they've all happened in the past 3 years? 🤔 Now, that's a fascinating answer that's more than a tad scary 😨

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·1d

The former monster active region still looks massive in time-distance helioseismic far-side images. Hopefully it is only taking a breather before developing again.

Update: more decay in the (former) monster active region. The intermediate part of the active region is mostly gone, as is polarity mixing. No significant flares in more than 24 hours.

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·1d

Update: more decay in the (former) monster active region. The intermediate part of the active region is mostly gone, as is polarity mixing. No significant flares in more than 24 hours.

Update: the large far side active region certainly looks like it is decaying. Lost penumbral area in the intermediate part of the region, but there is still some polarity mixing in there. Not great, not terrible.

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·2d

What are your top geomagnetic storms and aurora shows of Solar Cycle 25 so far?

My Top 4 auroras of Solar Cycle 25: #1 - 10-11 May 2024 G5 Gannon storm #2 - 10-11 October 2024 G4 storm #3 - 19-20 January 2026 G4 storm #4 - 5 November 2023 G3 storm (tied with the 11-12 November 2025 G4) Yours? The most interesting part? All of the aurora of SC25 happened in the last three years. All of the action, big geomagnetic storms, big aurora - only the last 3 years.

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·2d

Top 10 Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) in terms of the minimum DST index. The top two - #1 and #2 - are well above the rest, #3 was also interesting and could have been much, much stronger. #4, #5, #6 are all bunched up within 4 nT. Hopefully we will have new entries, preferably near or at the top of the list!

My Top 4 auroras of Solar Cycle 25: #1 - 10-11 May 2024 G5 Gannon storm #2 - 10-11 October 2024 G4 storm #3 - 19-20 January 2026 G4 storm #4 - 5 November 2023 G3 storm (tied with the 11-12 November 2025 G4) Yours? The most interesting part? All of the aurora of SC25 happened in the last three years. All of the action, big geomagnetic storms, big aurora - only the last 3 years.

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·2d

@OreboundImages Have you tried chasing there? 😅

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Jason H (AU) 🇦🇺@OreboundImages·3d

Parking in #Italy can be ..... challenging 🤷‍♀️ #Travel #Tuscany

Montepulciano, Tuscany 🇮🇹 English

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·2d

The aurora during the 15 May 1921 superstorm was so brilliant that even the "intense lights of the electric signs along Broadway could not dim the brilliance of the flaring skies." - The New York Times

Just a few days ago was the 105th anniversary of the 15 May 1921 Great Geomagnetic Storm. The storm produced overhead aurora and corona as far south as Tucson, Arizona. That's as far south as northern Florida, central Italy and central Spain. Aurora was visually spotted at the Apia Observatory, Samoa at a geomagnetic latitude of only 16°! The storm reached an estimated minimum DST index of -907 ± 132 nT - a Carrington-level event. Compare that with the DSTmin = -406 nT during the 10-11 May 2024 G5 Gannon storm.

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·3d

Update: more decay in the large far side active region, unfortunately. The intermediate part of the region has lost most of its umbral and penumbral area. No major far side flares were detected by the STIX instrument ovwr the past 24 hours. There is still some polarity mixing there, hopefully we will see new flux emerge and a new burst of growth.

Update: the large far side active region certainly looks like it is decaying. Lost penumbral area in the intermediate part of the region, but there is still some polarity mixing in there. Not great, not terrible.

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·3d

@PaxBiggs I distinctly remember the same thing being said in 2010-2015, after Discovery's Stormchasers :)

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Brandon Sullivan@btsullivan91

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Paxton Biggs@PaxBiggs·3d

It’s a wrap on chasing, at least as it was. I now consider the golden age closed. 2015-2025 was probably it… technology was in a good spot and it became more accessible. Big days were still doable. This however is impossible now

Took 10 min to get east. Glad the storms were crap

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·3d

@TatArt_es @Storm_Malaga @tormentayrayos Most likely a fragment of a circumhorizontal arc: cloudatlas.wmo.int/en/circumhoriz…

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Tata Gallego@TatArt_es·4d

Queridos @Storm_Malaga @tormentayrayos se ve muy leve, en directo era más brillante. Necesito explicación a esta ¿nube arcoiris? la primera vez que la he visto 🌈☁️ por gusto de saber, a lo mejor es algo muy normal, pero yo caí rendida, hipnotizada 😄😘🫶🏼💗

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·3d

There is this: "Auroral glow above the sumit of Mt Teide (Tenerife) on the night of 20 November 2003. Exposure time 30 s with a Nikon FM2, 35mm lens, camera on Fuji Superior 800 ASA. Courtesy: Graham Parkin (UK)". This is 33°N MLAT. The auroral glow reaches 20-25° high and I would be very surprised if this was not visible with the naked eye. It may be that this was visible <30°N MLAT, but nobody was there to observe it? From: Vazquez & Vaquero, 2010. @Vincent_Ledvina @TamithaSkov @swmcintosh

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Will@PInstinctx·3d

@JAtanackov Where's the Halloween storm of 2003? 🤔

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·3d

Just a few days ago was the 105th anniversary of the 15 May 1921 Great Geomagnetic Storm. The storm produced overhead aurora and corona as far south as Tucson, Arizona. That's as far south as northern Florida, central Italy and central Spain. Aurora was visually spotted at the Apia Observatory, Samoa at a geomagnetic latitude of only 16°! The storm reached an estimated minimum DST index of -907 ± 132 nT - a Carrington-level event. Compare that with the DSTmin = -406 nT during the 10-11 May 2024 G5 Gannon storm.

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·3d

@PInstinctx Excellent question. I am very surprised that the 29-31 October 2003 G5s did not result in any reports, nor the 20 November 2003 G4.

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·3d

@The_Triponacci Indeed. It seems that of all the potential natural disasters that may seriously affect us, a Miyake event might be the most likely. Supervolcano eruptions and moderately big asteroid impacts are more infrequent. Perhaps a serious global pandemic could be even more likely.

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The_Triponacci@The_Triponacci·3d

@JAtanackov As long as it's not a Miyake event..

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Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov·3d

The last three Carrington-level geomagnetic superstorms all happened within a single human lifetime. One could plausibly have seen all three of them - the first one as a teenager and the last one in their seventies. There is, however, likely no more living witnesses of the last one.

Just a few days ago was the 105th anniversary of the 15 May 1921 Great Geomagnetic Storm. The storm produced overhead aurora and corona as far south as Tucson, Arizona. That's as far south as northern Florida, central Italy and central Spain. Aurora was visually spotted at the Apia Observatory, Samoa at a geomagnetic latitude of only 16°! The storm reached an estimated minimum DST index of -907 ± 132 nT - a Carrington-level event. Compare that with the DSTmin = -406 nT during the 10-11 May 2024 G5 Gannon storm.

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