Javier Blas

This week, The World for Sale comes out in paperback It explains how oil and commodity markets work, how they influence geopolitics, and the extraordinary power of a few traders you've probably never heard of Please take a look smarturl.it/TheWorldForSal…

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the US flow rate from the SPR exchange would amount to be 1.0-1.5m b/d and says the total IEA release would come close to 3m b/d. (Those are the first flow rates estimates publicly discussed since the IEA/SPR action was announced)

Let’s call it the 5-day CERAWeek truce?

Whatever your view of Iran, this war is not of their making. This is already causing widespread economic problems and I fear they promise to get much worse if the war continues. Oman is working intensively to put in place safe passage arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz.

Strange situation where we await a statement from Iran to check whether there's any truth to what US president is saying.

Give President Trump credit in two areas: 1) As he said (“I think it would be worse”), the increase in energy prices has remained limited vs historical. 2) He has squeezed the art of jawboning beyond what I think would work. Aided, of course, by previous TACO experience.

BREAKING: Trump postpones attacks on Iranian electricity network for five days; says that Tehran and Washington are having “good and productive” discussions about a “complete and total resolution of our hostilities.” Oil and natural gas prices fall sharply.

VIDEO EXPLAINER: Trump has given Iran an ultimatum — reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Monday mid-afternoon (Washington time) or else be attacked. With the clock fast ticking, I’m re-publishing my recent @Opinion map explainer of Hormuz and the oil routes.

[MUST READ] Iran’s Kharg Island - U.S. seizure would not necessarily end exports or re-open the Strait: bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed. The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices. bangkokpost.com/business/gener…

@beefcubee @SpecialSitsNews @JohnPolomny It went higher in 2025 and early 2026.

@SpecialSitsNews @JohnPolomny @JavierBlas this is 2024 and thanks to biden i guess

Iran's oil production just hit a 46 year high and it is selling oil at the highest prices in history @JavierBlas

@RobertGKepes @MollyJongFast @CopernicusEU If Iran thought that even higher prices are on its interest (instead of $100 + exporting its oil), it would be very simple for them to achieve: shut down the exports. The fact that Tehran chooses not to do tells you everything.

@JavierBlas @MollyJongFast @CopernicusEU Not ridiculous. Trump chose between two evils. Sale of Iranian oil versus the lesser evil of high gas prices in red states.

Iran’s Kharg Island as seen **today** by the @CopernicusEU Sentinel-2 satellite. Iran is loading multiple tankers, exporting oil and making $$$ — now, with the help of the White House. The idea that Trump admin is using Iranian oil barrels against Iran is simply ridiculous.

Unlike the Islamic Republic, Trump doesn’t have the benefit of time. He needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in days or, at most, weeks or oil prices would rally. He doesn’t have months to crank up the pressure on Iran via Kharg to accept a deal. Time favours Tehran. 🧵10/10

But Iran has weathered long periods of ultra-low oil exports. Back in 2020-22, Iran endured American "maximum pressure" on its petroleum industry, with exports at times down 90% from today's levels. And Iran didn't buckle then. Thus, it's unlikely to do so now. 🧵9/10

KHARG ISLAND — a thread: Trump has talked about taking Iran's Kharg Island for 40 years. The problem? Capturing it won't shut down Iran’s entire oil export system. And thus it won't lead to Hormuz re-opening fast enough. 🧵1/10 @Opinion FREE-TO-READ: bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…