Jay
3K posts


I’m sure Bitcoin is breaking out as well right?
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: S&P 500 futures surge to their highest level on record.
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Ya me ha llegado esto.
Supongo que podría usar la app de Google Health, pero prefiero conectarlo via API a mi asistente personal de IA, porque mola más y porque no es lo mismo que Google Health me diga educadamente “hoy te has movido poco” que Claudia me mande por Telegram un “levántate de la silla y haz 10 sentadillas si quieres llegar a ver crecer a tus nietos”.
Vamos a ello.

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Garmin from first principles
Nate Lorenzen@anatelorenzen
It technically works but I wouldn’t recommend. Seiko on a Fitbit Air.
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@themotleyfool But now everyone knows this, so every dip gets bought up.
Only real crash will happen when people no longer have disposable income.
There will always be people (/companies) with disposable income.
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Would not touch this one.
Bad aura
Investing.com@Investingcom
*OPENAI PREPARING TO FILE FOR IPO VERY SOON, SOURCES SAY -- WSJ *OPENAI PREPARES IPO EXPECTING TO VALUE IT AT MORE THAN $1T: FT
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Gemini's thesis:
When you buy Berkshire Hathaway right now, you aren't buying it because you think the stock is going to double next month. You are buying it for three very specific structural reasons that make sense for a personal portfolio, even when management is being stingy with buybacks.
1. Their Buyback Rule is Stricter Than Your Buying Rule
Greg Abel and Warren Buffett have a very rigid standard for buybacks: they will only buy back shares if the stock is trading at a substantial discount to its intrinsic value.
For Berkshire:
If they buy back stock when it is even slightly overvalued, they are effectively transferring wealth away from long-term shareholders and giving it to the people who are selling. They view buybacks strictly through a lens of corporate stewardship.
For You:
You don’t need the stock to be deeply discounted to make a good long-term return. Berkshire stock has pulled back about 10% from its recent all-time high and is trading around 1.44 times its book value. For context, during the periods they completely paused buybacks over the last two years, it was trading as high as 1.6 to 1.8 times book value. It is actually cheaper today than it has been in nearly two years—which is exactly why Abel did quietly execute a small $234 million buyback in March when it dipped.
2. You Are Buying an Insurance Policy for a Market Crash
Think of Berkshire Hathaway as less of a traditional stock and more of a "chaos hedge."
If you invest in a standard S&P 500 index fund right now, you are buying into a market where valuations are at historic highs. If a recession hits, standard stocks will plummet.
If you buy Berkshire, you are buying a company that has $397 billion in cash and U.S. Treasury bills. That cash acts as a massive financial shock absorber.
In a good market:
Berkshire's operating businesses (railroads, energy, insurance) just posted $11.3 billion in quarterly operating earnings, up 18% year-over-year. Plus, that $397 billion is safely earning billions in risk-free interest via Treasury bills.
In a terrible market:
If the stock market crashes by 30%, standard companies panic. Berkshire, however, becomes the hunter. That $397 billion will suddenly buy deeply discounted companies, giving you massive exposure to the subsequent market recovery.
3. The Scale Problem Generates "Coattail" Advantages
As we established, Berkshire is too big to invest in normal-sized companies. But you aren't.
By owning Berkshire, you let them hold the line with the giant cash pile, while you benefit from their massive compounding machine. They are generating so much cash from their fully-owned businesses (like GEICO and BNSF) that the company's baseline "book value" (what it’s actually worth on paper) rises every single quarter. Even if the stock price goes sideways for a bit because the market is expensive, the fundamental value underneath the stock is constantly growing.
The Verdict:
You shouldn't buy Berkshire if you are looking for explosive, short-term growth. You buy Berkshire if you think the broader stock market is getting risky and expensive, and you want to partner with the absolute safest, most cash-rich business on Earth that will thrive the moment things go wrong for everyone else.
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@MorningBrew All looking to list before correction?
99 vibes.
Some (many) will go to 0.
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Waiting on one more now...
SpaceX
• Listing Date: June 12
• Target raise: $75 billion
• Target valuation: $1.75 trillion
OpenAI
• Target Date: September
• Target Raise: TBD
• Current valuation: $852 billion
Anthropic
• Target Date: End of Year
• Target Raise: TBD
• Current valuation: $900 billion
The year of the mega IPO is upon us



Brew Markets@brewmarkets
Just In: OpenAI is preparing to file for an IPO in the coming days, per WSJ.
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