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This is my favorite chart. I know it looks like a bunch of boring financial data, but it’s actually the most important "map" we have for where our money is going over the next two years. US banks are sitting on about $306 billion in "unrealized losses." To understand what that means: back in 2020 and 2021, banks bought trillions of dollars in bonds when interest rates were near zero. This was good for normal people, but not for banks, because they received zero dividends back from the government. Then the Fed cranked rates up to fight inflation, and the value of those old bonds crashed because they paid the banks 0–1% APY compared to the rates that went all the way up to 6%. This created a massive "hole" in the banking system's pockets. So, if you’ve been wondering why it feels like the "real economy" for normal people is stuck in the mud while the stock market hits new highs, this is your answer. The "Paper Loss" Trap Think of it like this if you were a bank, because it's the complete opposite for them than it is for us: Imagine you bought a house in 2020 with a 1% dividend per year. That was an amazing deal for you back then. But then the market changed, and now all your other bank friends are getting a 7% dividend per year on new houses. If you tried to sell your 1% house today, nobody would want it unless you dropped the price significantly. Why would they take your 1% deal when they could get 7% elsewhere? That "drop in value" is exactly what the banks are experiencing. They haven't actually lost the money yet (that’s why it’s called "unrealized losses"), but if they had to sell those bonds today to fund new loans, they would take a massive hit. Because of this, they are acting like someone who just lost their job, they are hoarding every penny. This is why big tech companies and the S&P 500 (who don't need loans) are thriving while small businesses and normal people feel like they’re walking underwater. The 18–24 Month "Healing" Phase We are currently in a waiting game. People keep asking when "cheap money" is coming back. The truth is, it doesn't matter as much as bond maturation does. Those $300B+ in losses aren't permanent; they only exist because the banks are holding "old" debt. Every month that goes by, a small chunk of those old 2020 bonds hits its expiration date. When that happens, the loss "vanishes" because the government gives the bank their full original cash back. They then take that cash and "refinance" it into new 2026 bonds that pay 5% or 6%. To use the house analogy again: Imagine you purchased that house back in 2020 that paid the 1% dividend. If you were forced to sell it now, you would lose maybe 80% of its value. But if you somehow managed to keep it afloat for the duration of that loan (normally 4–6 years), the previous owner of the house would give you the entire amount back, even if the real market value was down 80%. That is the game of government bonds. This is a slow motion recovery. Based on the math of how long these bonds usually last, it’s going to take at least 18 to 24 months, taking us into late 2027, before our favorite chart hits the "peak positive" side again. Until those bars are back above zero, banks aren't going to feel "safe" enough to let the money flow back down to us like they did in 2020/21. Why the Car Market is Stuck The car industry is the "canary in the coal mine" for this chart. Cars are almost entirely bought on credit. Right now, even though the economy is technically "growing" (the ISM Manufacturing index is finally expanding again at 52.4), banks are being incredibly stingy. They’ve tightened their lending standards so much that even with good credit, you're seeing rates near 7% or 8%. They are doing this because they have to "repair the roof while it's still raining." They are using their profits to patch the holes in their bond portfolios instead of offering you good loans. That is why we see banks reporting record profits right now, it's not just to fill the owner's pockets, it's primarily to cover the losses they have until the bonds mature. But once the bonds themselves start to show a profit, and we know banks will never lower their fees once they get away with it once, they will have a record abundance like nothing we have seen in history. The Crypto "Risk Curve" Prediction And then there’s crypto. Everyone wants that 2021 feeling back, where every altcoin goes 10x in a month. But look at the liquidity: 2021: M2 money supply growth was at a record 27%. Today: We’re growing at a modest 4.1%. The "money printing" is happening, but it’s a surgical drip, not a firehose. The cash is staying at the top of the pyramid (the banks) to fix this chart. Crypto is at the very end of the "risk curve". It only explodes when the banking "tank" is totally full and the extra cash starts spilling over into the high risk stuff. My Forecast: The 2027 Pivot I’m predicting we won't see a true "peak" in car sales or a "retail crypto mania" until late 2027. That is the moment the math finally clears. By then, the vast majority of those "underwater" bonds will have matured. Banks will be "whole" again, their balance sheets will be in the green, and they will stop hoarding cash. That’s when the credit gates open, the 0% car deals return, and the "lazy money" floods back into the crypto market. We aren't in a bear or bull market. The last bull market ended in 2021, and even if BTC has pumped over the last couple of years, we are still not in a real bull market. The only players in the game right now are "big money" and banks. When crypto dudes say that retail is not back, they are completely right. It's not even debatable, you can easily see where the money is located right now. The idea of a magical 4 year BTC cycle is fine if you need to believe in that, but in the bigger picture, this post shows what is actually going on in the world and what needs to happen before we see abundance again. We are not in a recession, the recession was back in 2022, but they would not admit it, we're in a healing phase. We’re watching the banks slowly fix their mistakes from 2020. Patience is the only play here. Keep an eye on those bars, as they get smaller, your capital gets closer to its next big run. But make no mistake: the so-called mistakes the banks made in 2020 will happen again. You can always bet on the greed of banks, it's just in their nature. So, when abundance hits again and you get that nice feeling in your body, fight it as much as possible and start planning for the next real bear market.

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