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Arbitrary reasons I believe the crypto cycle will be extended.
(Note: This is pure speculation, hopium and based on my instinct which has no technical validity, this is just gut fundamentals)
#1: Weak Ethereum all time high
The largest "altcoin" in the entire space barely broke ATH and then went down shortly after. Currently Bitcoin, the LARGEST coin has more % return from the 2022 bottom until now. How on earth does the bigger, "conservative" and harder-to-move asset give more return than the most productive L1 in crypto? The new Ethereum ATH didn't even account for inflation since 2021. Touching the previous 2021 ATH for like 3 days is not breaking ATH, change my mind.
#2: No Dogecoin all time high
In 2023 we experienced a memecoin revolution and you're gonna tell me the biggest memecoin by far, Dogecoin, will not hit ATH? Dogecoin is a classic at this point. Doge was the most talked about crypto in 2021. I'm not pretending Doge is a relevant meme nowdays, but it was so fucking big it would honestly surprise me if it didn't reach ATH again and give all the normies a way of exit.
#3: No Litecoin all time high
Similar to Doge, Litecoin is a dinocoin that has religiously pumped on each altseason, this time around, it has not. It has hovered on the same $70-$120 range since 2022. Litecoin will forever have a spot in my heart because it was the first crypto I ever bought, I do not hold it anymore but I track it from time to time because it has been a good indicator of the cycle top for the last 2 cycles. I believe there needs to be a proper dinoseason before the cycle ends, Litecoin has been around for well over a decade and it's still alive.
#4: Bitcoin broke ATH before the halving
If you have followed the charts closely, you may remember that we were "ahead of schedule" for a long ass period during this cycle. People are saying an extended cycle is hopium, why would such anomaly surprise you when Bitcoin broke ATH before the halving even occurred, something that had never happened before. Every cycle is filled with surprises.
#5: The suffering aspect of the cycle
99% of altcoin holders have suffered since Nov-Dec 2024, of course there are exceptions (as always) but for the vast majority this has been the case. The winning strategy in crypto has always been patience over anything, just hold, wait and buy the dips. We have lived through a massacre for the past year and to me, that always indicates that something big is around the corner. The best of life always comes with immense risk and courage. Altcoins look like shit right now, so many think they look like a terrible option. When everyone in crypto thinks something is a terrible option, it's not uncommon for it to have a "revenge rally".
#6: The 10/10 liquidation event
October 10th of this year wiped a LOT, and I mean a LOT of big players. I personally had like a 1.6x long and even that was liquidated. It hurt a lot but it made me realize that a "cleanse" was needed. Basically any type of leveraged long position was liquidated that day. To me a mass liquidation even was a symptom that the market was over-leveraged and a reset was needed. Of course this doesn't prevent people from using leverage again but the point is that we were getting greedy and the market punished us for it, this is a good thing.
#7: BTD.d, ETH/BTC and OTHERS/BTC
Bitcoin dominance has been going up since 2022, and at the second the market starts looking juicy, with a decent macro outlook, suddenly everyone is bearish? It's clear that altcoins are here to stay. It would be wild to think BTC dominance will simply climb into eternity. Plus it has been going down this entire massive BTC correction (???), what is that telling us?
ETH/BTC ratio clearly bottomed on April 2025, so similar to point #1, you're gonna tell me that Ethereum holders survived rain and storm just for the explosion to be this weak? If the ratio has topped, then there is literally zero reason to hold Ethereum, because you're taking more risk than just holding Bitcoin and getting less ROI. To me that sounds idiotic.
OTHERS/BTC ratio has been in freefall since 2022, it's basically the opposite of BTD.d, you're gonna tell me it's going down forever? It's hard to tell if this chart is bottomed but the 10/10 liquidation wick clearly touched the "bottom resistance" of the chart.
#8: Metals and stocks are at all time high
Gold, silver, S&P500 etc. are at all time highs. And right this moment, people start calling for a detachment from Bitcoin, they're saying Bitcoin is not on par with traditional assets as Bitcoin doesn't represent the same safety that Gold provides. If the traditional market is stagnant and Bitcoin goes up, they also call for a supposed detachment and claim that Bitcoin has won and is the only and most superior asset in the world. Each single time people think Bitcoin is either lagging or ahead compared to the traditional markets, that's an indicator that BTC is under or overvalued. A lot of stocks look really good, I don't see a reason why Bitcoin should look as terrible as some people think it does.
#9: Positive macro setup, good or bad?
Similar to #7 regarding BTC.d - Since 2023 we have lived the craziest memeseason that's ever happened, all of that while bitcoin dominance kept increasing and altcoins were technically losing value against the king. How is that possible? 2023-2024 was the MOST bullish period BY FAR of the cycle while macro signals were looking like absolute ass. Right the second the FED started cutting rates and the setup for 2026 started to look decent for the first time in YEARS, now people are bearish? Make it make sense.
#10: Majority calling for a top and general sentiment
This one is abstract and many people could tell you different answers depending on who you follow, but from my POV, a solid 60-70% of the timeline is calling for a top. Please point out a single time where the majority has called something, and it manifested in the charts exactly as described. It's not that easy. I think many of us can agree that this cycle has not experienced euphoria, so was the last bit of euphoria in 2021? Will that never repeat ever again?
Since the top of 2021, things like the halving, stock to flow, rainbow chart and other models became super popular, which indicates that people in crypto (including me) became obsessed with predicting the next cycle top. When everyone is trying to predict what happens next using tools/models that "predict" or "indicate", things get harder.
Everyone tells you that models are useless but suddenly the 50EMA being broken is now a 100% verdict indicator that BTC has lost its steam?
This is not an exaggeration, I have never seen as many people calling for the death of altseason as much as right now. Many are convinced that a true altseason can't even happen again. Crypto influencers now tell you that the alt season is selective and only a few assets will be the chosen ones for the golden bullrun. What does that mean, is the majority correct? Should we all rotate to BTC because bitcoin dominance will just keep increasing forever and altcoins have no value?
Everyone is lost in the end and no one knows exactly what will happen. These are just clues at the top of my head that tell me this cycle can get extended to 2026. Of course I want the market to go up, so these opinions are biased to what I want to happen, but also in a way, I tried to be objective with myself and tried to analyze the overall sentiment and what has happened before and relate them with basic rules of life like: good things are never easy.
People often relate crypto with becoming a millionaire fast and easy, and honestly I cannot think that could but further from the truth. Crypto is something that eats up your mental state, requires a LOT of discipline, patience, consistency, virtue and if you quit being humble, you will lose it all.
I believe the patient and those who have survived all of this will be rewarded.
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