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Jeff Smith
40.6K posts

Jeff Smith
@jefffocker
Trader. Discipline is orthogonal to alpha.
virginia Katılım Haziran 2011
50 Takip Edilen462 Takipçiler

Arthur Fils after beating Lorenzo Musetti in Barcelona
“We think of the big serve and the big forehand. But you won the crucial break of serve with the backhand crosscourt battle… how important was that shot today?”
Arthur: “Well everyone waits on me for the big serve and the big forehand, as you said. But I know that I have a very good backhand and I can stay 10 hours without missing one backhand 😂. No, no. I was pretty happy with the performance today. It was a good match. Pretty solid from start to finish. Very happy.” 🇫🇷

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Is it just me of the gpt 5.4 absolutely sucks ? Codex is awesome but gpt seems to have regressed . So disappointed. @sama
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@TennisTV @nunoborges97 Not sure why people expect a handshake and friendly convo after that shit. Yeah it's legal all you want but it's still a punk bitch move..i guess some of u don't understand that bc you live online. If I did that I'd expect the guy not want to talk to me again or try to assault me
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UNDERARM ACE ON MATCH POINT?! 😱
A stroke of genius from @nunoborges97 to reach his biggest career ATP quarter-final in Barcelona!
#BCNOpenBS
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@Kasparov63 Happy birthday to the GOAT!. I used to wake up early to analyze your games against the big blue off the newspapers
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Jeff Smith retweetledi

Judging by my tl there is a growing gap in understanding of AI capability.
The first issue I think is around recency and tier of use. I think a lot of people tried the free tier of ChatGPT somewhere last year and allowed it to inform their views on AI a little too much. This is a group of reactions laughing at various quirks of the models, hallucinations, etc. Yes I also saw the viral videos of OpenAI's Advanced Voice mode fumbling simple queries like "should I drive or walk to the carwash". The thing is that these free and old/deprecated models don't reflect the capability in the latest round of state of the art agentic models of this year, especially OpenAI Codex and Claude Code.
But that brings me to the second issue. Even if people paid $200/month to use the state of the art models, a lot of the capabilities are relatively "peaky" in highly technical areas. Typical queries around search, writing, advice, etc. are *not* the domain that has made the most noticeable and dramatic strides in capability. Partly, this is due to the technical details of reinforcement learning and its use of verifiable rewards. But partly, it's also because these use cases are not sufficiently prioritized by the companies in their hillclimbing because they don't lead to as much $$$ value. The goldmines are elsewhere, and the focus comes along.
So that brings me to the second group of people, who *both* 1) pay for and use the state of the art frontier agentic models (OpenAI Codex / Claude Code) and 2) do so professionally in technical domains like programming, math and research. This group of people is subject to the highest amount of "AI Psychosis" because the recent improvements in these domains as of this year have been nothing short of staggering. When you hand a computer terminal to one of these models, you can now watch them melt programming problems that you'd normally expect to take days/weeks of work. It's this second group of people that assigns a much greater gravity to the capabilities, their slope, and various cyber-related repercussions.
TLDR the people in these two groups are speaking past each other. It really is simultaneously the case that OpenAI's free and I think slightly orphaned (?) "Advanced Voice Mode" will fumble the dumbest questions in your Instagram's reels and *at the same time*, OpenAI's highest-tier and paid Codex model will go off for 1 hour to coherently restructure an entire code base, or find and exploit vulnerabilities in computer systems. This part really works and has made dramatic strides because 2 properties: 1) these domains offer explicit reward functions that are verifiable meaning they are easily amenable to reinforcement learning training (e.g. unit tests passed yes or no, in contrast to writing, which is much harder to explicitly judge), but also 2) they are a lot more valuable in b2b settings, meaning that the biggest fraction of the team is focused on improving them. So here we are.
staysaasy@staysaasy
The degree to which you are awed by AI is perfectly correlated with how much you use AI to code.
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