Jesse Passafiume

The @JBREC + Kiavi Fix-and-Flip Market Index hit 62 in 4Q25. 📈 Market expansion is here, and 71% of investors plan to buy more in 2026. Read the full breakdown. 👉 ow.ly/XkrF50Yj1XI #Kiavi #FinTech

Clear negative for people that build homes and companies that supply homebuilders and developers. If the number of people with jobs has basically stopped growing, who are we building more homes for?

AI Data Centers. Wood you look at that. Data centers are typically constructed primarily of steel and concrete—but as the AI data center wave accelerates, Meta and Microsoft are pivoting to build them with mass timber to help reach their emissions goals Single-family homebuilders don't use much mass timber. However, the softwood lumber they use extensively for framing is the same underlying material used to produce mass-timber products vimeo.com/1105931544?fl=…

This is unfortunately the real story. One of my teammates said “the only person that watches the 10 yr more than you is trump” he has a bigger tool belt.

The proposed “21st Century ROAD to Housing Act” will suppress future housing supply and worsen affordability. A harsher stance on build-to-rent (BTR) is most concerning, and we fear much of the housing supply seen in our chart below is now in jeopardy. jbrec.com/insights/21st-….

Are elected officials about to pass the "Rental Inflation bill?" The requirement to sell future Build-to-Rent homes to homeowners within 7 years will effectively stop the construction of rental homes, decreasing new supply and thus increasing rents. jbrec.com/insights/21st-…

Lennar—America's second largest homebuilder—gross margins fall to the lowest levels since 2009 Among giant public homebuilders, Lennar has been the most aggressive in using affordability adjustments/incentives to maintain volumes/take market share @ResidentialClub research

Announcing Copilot Cowork, a new way to complete tasks and get work done in M365. When you hand off a task to Cowork, it turns your request into a plan and executes it across your apps and files, grounded in your work data and operating within M365’s security and governance boundaries.

GPT-5.4 is launching, available now in the API and Codex and rolling out over the course of the day in ChatGPT. It's much better at knowledge work and web search, and it has native computer use capabilities. You can steer it mid-response, and it supports 1m tokens of context.

“We will be the first conforming mortgage originator to deploy tokenized capital to responsibly support mortgage assets at institutional scale,” Better CEO Vishal Garg said. By @colinmcnamara05 nationalmortgagenews.com/news/better-ta…

Watched this with my son this evening. Absolutely beautiful film that left us both emotional and gave us more than a few things to talk about. What a great film.

The Adolescence of Technology: an essay on the risks posed by powerful AI to national security, economies and democracy—and how we can defend against them: darioamodei.com/essay/the-adol…

Oh dear 😏

Let me try to explain what Claude Cowork actually means in the simplest way possible. Not for SaaS founders. Not for AI Twitter. For the guy who owns a landscaping company with 20 employees. This is not just some desktop organizing demo like you’ve probably seen. Claude Cowork is an employee that lives inside your computer. You attach it to your browser. You show it how you do a task. You give it your SOPs. You record the workflow once... with context. And then it just does it. On a schedule. Forever. Let’s say you have a production manager. Every morning he - logs into Housecall Pro or Jobber - reviews the schedule - assigns crews - decides what equipment goes where - determines arrival times - messages foremen - confirms labor and inventory That’s a lot of human decision making. Now imagine you train Claude on: - your SOPs - how you make those decisions - how your CRM works - how your team is structured Claude can now: - open your CRM - review the schedule - assign crews - schedule equipment - notify employees - update job notes - log changes Automatically. Every morning. Your production manager is now just an exception handler, if you even need him anymore. Now let’s talk about the small business owner. You and a couple guys grinding stumps. You need social media. You know it matters. You don’t have time. And you don’t want obvious AI images. So instead: - you snap a photo on site - it uploads to iCloud - Claude grabs it - analyzes top performing posts in your industry - writes the caption - formats it for ads - posts it You just created a social media manager. No agency. No content calendar. It goes way deeper than this. - Customer communication - Follow ups - Scheduling - Lead routing - Quoting workflows - Document handling - Invoice processing - Collections - Reviews - Reporting If a human currently does it on a screen… it can be automated inside the tools you ALREADY USE. It's about to get wild out here.

In case you were looking for context on the other tweet from the last week.

Directing FNMA and FHLMC to retain a another 200b each is the clearest path to lower rates early in 2026.

2026 could be the first spring season for housing since 2022 where resale buyers too can buy with a 30-year mortgage starting with a 5. Only homebuilders could offer that in recent years via rate buydowns, so market share shift back to existing homes will be a 2026 housing theme.

The impact of lower mortgage rates on housing inventory dlvr.it/TQHWlb

Didn't have this on my 2026 bingo card. Whether you agree with him or not, the Fed has done a heck of a job managing inflation and employment. I believe having an independent Fed is an important component of a stable economy.