jt
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@jgillyyyyyy Likewise my g, I really appreciate that too I instantly followed you back, I could tell off rip you know your ball, it’s always great having like minded people around and to talk to about these things!! I’ll keep in touch with you throughout our betting journeys 🔥
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Reds vs. Marlins
Reds side is live, but the cleanest attack is still the hitter props instead of forcing the full-game side. Rhett Lowder brings the cleaner run-prevention profile into this matchup. He is sitting on a .259 xwOBA allowed, .194 xBA allowed, .301 xSLG allowed, and just 36.7% hard-hit, which tells you the damage suppression has been real. He is not some overwhelming bat-misser, but he has done a really good job keeping contact soft. The one caution is the shape of the contact. The 43.3% fly-ball rate and 22.5° launch angle allowed leave a path for Miami’s lift bats to do damage if he leaks over the plate.
Max Meyer is the opposite type of arm. The stuff is there, but the contact quality allowed is dangerous. He is carrying a 5.71 xERA with a .277 xBA allowed, .370 xwOBA allowed, .486 xSLG allowed, 46.4% hard-hit, and 14.3% barrel. He can still miss bats with the 31.6% whiff and 25.0% K rate, but the low 35.7% ground-ball rate and rising launch angle allowed tell you hitters are getting him in the air when they connect. That is exactly the kind of profile Cincinnati can punish.
Sal Stewart is still the best bat in this game. The profile is complete. He is at a .448 xwOBA, .324 xBA, .629 xSLG, 54.8% hard-hit, and a ridiculous 19.4% barrel rate, but the part that makes him even better is the discipline jump. He has cut the K rate down to 14.9%, pushed the walk rate to 19.1%, and kept the whiff rate at 22.1%. That is not just a hot streak. That is a real hitter profile. Nathaniel Lowe is right behind him as the safer contact-floor bat with a .348 xwOBA, .350 xBA, .460 xSLG, 60.0% hard-hit, and only 10.5% whiff. Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz both have real upside too, but Sal and Lowe are the cleanest path plays against a pitcher who gives up loud contact.
Miami is not dead in this matchup, which is why I do not love blindly slamming Reds ML. Griffin Conine has a huge ceiling with a .463 xwOBA, .347 xBA, .627 xSLG, 54.5% hard-hit, and 18.2% barrel, but the 44.8% whiff makes him very boom or bust. Liam Hicks is the much cleaner Miami bat with a .399 xwOBA, .313 xBA, .520 xSLG, just 9.4% K, and only 8.5% whiff. Xavier Edwards also stays live because of the .294 xBA and 9.1% K, which gives him easy table-setting paths if Lowder is around the zone.
Best way I’m playing it is still through the Reds bats. Sal Stewart is the best prop bat on the board, Nathaniel Lowe is the safest secondary piece, and Meyer’s profile is exactly the kind of damage-prone shape I want to target.
Best looks: Sal Stewart over 0.5 hits, Sal Stewart over 1.5 H+R+RBI, Nathaniel Lowe over 0.5 H+R+RBI.
#MLB #GamblingX #MLBPicks
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Backing Knicks with the home edge here.
A lil pricey but I’m willing to pay juice when making parlays. I’m only showing on prize picks for now, full lays are done on Onxy Odds, Fliff, and other book sites I have available to me 💯
New York is 28-9 at home, has won five straight at home, and already beat Boston 111-89 on February 8 in the most recent meeting. Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are both questionable, along with Sam Hauser and Neemias Queta. If Brown or White sits, I think the Knicks become the sharper side immediately.
#Gambling𝕏 #NBA #BankrollBuilders

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@betonjmont Fosho dog you already know it. I peeped you rly took ur time with ur reads and writes ups, had to hit wit da follow , will be tuning in 👌
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@jgillyyyyyy Same here!!! I wanted to make some lays while I was up and I’m glad you were around at the same time! Fully agree with you on those reads. I see the vison already, I feel like our minds work best sometimes in these late hours 💯
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@betonjmont Thanks man I got sum insomnia rn and haven’t bet in a while so figured I’d make a late night lay, $10 to win $200 💯👌 thanks for the Stewart play, I did Knicks and Raptors based off playoff positioning, also Celtics have several players questionable
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@jgillyyyyyy You know ball 🙏🏽love this. All of these will be in play for sure. Appreciate you for sharing these gems 🤞🏽
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