Jack Kersting

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Jack Kersting

Jack Kersting

@jhkersting

TX

Richardson, TX Katılım Aralık 2018
721 Takip Edilen9.1K Takipçiler
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Jack Kersting
Jack Kersting@jhkersting·
Final Forecasts Presidency As coin flip as an election can get. Trump is favored in states that give him 287 electoral votes, but Harris win on the median simulation. Given ties most likely would go to Trump, it is 50-50. #standard" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">projects.jhkforecasts.com/2024/president…
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No Laying Up
No Laying Up@NoLayingUp·
RORY COMINNNN!!!!!!!
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No Laying Up
No Laying Up@NoLayingUp·
Been a long time since I've been this giddy to watch a round of golf.
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Jack Kersting
Jack Kersting@jhkersting·
Once again big thanks to everyone that has followed this year. It has definitely been the most interesting elections to forecast of the 3 I've done so far. I am working on a election night 'needle' that will run on the manipulator page. Idea came to me last night so hopefully have time to finish it.
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Jack Kersting
Jack Kersting@jhkersting·
House Republicans end the forecast as slight favorites. Like with the Senate, it is all dependent to how well Trump runs compared to the his projections, and how much ticket splitting there is this year. #standard" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">projects.jhkforecasts.com/2024/house/#st
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Jack Kersting
Jack Kersting@jhkersting·
Final Forecasts Presidency As coin flip as an election can get. Trump is favored in states that give him 287 electoral votes, but Harris win on the median simulation. Given ties most likely would go to Trump, it is 50-50. #standard" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">projects.jhkforecasts.com/2024/president…
Jack Kersting tweet media
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Jack Kersting
Jack Kersting@jhkersting·
@MickyStam521 hopefully fixed the increasing variance issue. Just pushed the update some might take a few minutes
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Jack Kersting
Jack Kersting@jhkersting·
How the model works. The inputs are the latest AtlasIntel polls with their margin of error, using 2020 as a baseline. Using those polls as input the model the gives Trump a 73% chance of winning And it spits out a sharable link where everyone can view. tinyurl.com/3wme2rvy
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Jack Kersting@jhkersting

Presidential Manipulator is live! Great option for election night when results come in or if you want to create your own mini forecast you can share with others. Choose from different starting points and adjust the underlying model to your liking. projects.jhkforecasts.com/2024/president…

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Micky 😃🍉 | 🇬🇷🇭🇷🇷🇴
@jhkersting Refreshing the page makes the odds change, do you know why that is? It is weird 🤔 From what I can tell, the +/- value changes which increases uncertainty, but I can't understand why it changes
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Jack Kersting
Jack Kersting@jhkersting·
Notes. The model doesn't predict the polling error per state or nationally. The model acts as if it is election night and the inputs given are real results. I also used a url shortener, as to take up less space, but just placing the link will show you a link card. projects.jhkforecasts.com/2024/president…
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