Jack Kersting

Final Forecasts Presidency As coin flip as an election can get. Trump is favored in states that give him 287 electoral votes, but Harris win on the median simulation. Given ties most likely would go to Trump, it is 50-50. #standard" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">projects.jhkforecasts.com/2024/president…

RORY COMINNNN!!!!!!!

Been a long time since I've been this giddy to watch a round of golf.

12:40PM Update DDHQ has called the Presidency for Trump. Fox has also called PA for Trump. tinyurl.com/53z96y4v

11:45PM update tinyurl.com/yc36h6vd

10:50 PM Update tinyurl.com/3ntxcn6w

10:20 Update tinyurl.com/w92bcthv

10PM Update tinyurl.com/29cw6vuu

9:30 update to projections for presidency tinyurl.com/6rkvn3w6

Latest updates to my projection. tinyurl.com/yc344yba

Another update for my projections for the Presidency. projects.jhkforecasts.com/2024/president…

Updated Projections for the Presidency projects.jhkforecasts.com/2024/president…

Given the results so far this is where I have it. Based on a few counties so far, and mostly could just be a shift in FL. projects.jhkforecasts.com/2024/president…

Once again big thanks to everyone that has followed this year. It has definitely been the most interesting elections to forecast of the 3 I've done so far. I am working on a election night 'needle' that will run on the manipulator page. Idea came to me last night so hopefully have time to finish it.

House Republicans end the forecast as slight favorites. Like with the Senate, it is all dependent to how well Trump runs compared to the his projections, and how much ticket splitting there is this year. #standard" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">projects.jhkforecasts.com/2024/house/#st…

Final Forecasts Presidency As coin flip as an election can get. Trump is favored in states that give him 287 electoral votes, but Harris win on the median simulation. Given ties most likely would go to Trump, it is 50-50. #standard" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">projects.jhkforecasts.com/2024/president…

@MickyStam521 hopefully fixed the increasing variance issue. Just pushed the update some might take a few minutes

@jhkersting oh! I'm dumb. Thanks!

How the model works. The inputs are the latest AtlasIntel polls with their margin of error, using 2020 as a baseline. Using those polls as input the model the gives Trump a 73% chance of winning And it spits out a sharable link where everyone can view. tinyurl.com/3wme2rvy

@MickyStam521 it copies it to your clipboard.

@jhkersting Also for some reason when I click the "share forecast" button, it doesn't do anything. Anyway, thanks for looking into it and once again love your work!

@MickyStam521 taking a look to see what the problem is.

@jhkersting Refreshing the page makes the odds change, do you know why that is? It is weird 🤔 From what I can tell, the +/- value changes which increases uncertainty, but I can't understand why it changes

Notes. The model doesn't predict the polling error per state or nationally. The model acts as if it is election night and the inputs given are real results. I also used a url shortener, as to take up less space, but just placing the link will show you a link card. projects.jhkforecasts.com/2024/president…