Hamp

S&P 500 is having its strongest weekly gains in 15 years. $SPX has risen for 4 straight weeks with a 12%+ gain, for first time since 2011 and only the 11th since 1950. Six months later, the index was higher 9 of 10 times, averaging +9.5%. Another reason not to sell in May.

WHEN JANUARY & APRIL AGREE - THE REST OF THE YEAR MAY BE A SIGHT TO SEE Since 1950, the S&P is 54-22 in the last 8 months of the Year (May-December) for an avg, 8 month, gain of 5.58% with 10% moves 25-7 to the positive. The month of January was up 1.37% and as of April 25, April is up 9.75% with four trading days in the month remaining. If January & April are both positive, the last eight months of the year improve to 30-6 for an avg gain of 8.54% with THE 10% MOVES 15-1 to the positive. This contrast dramatically to those 13 years in which both months were negative, which led to a 4-9 last eight months of the year for an avg loss of 4.12%. The Bullish Japril Barometer Signal is # 9 on this weeks list of Top Ten reasons to own equites at the moment, a list shared with my Study Subscribers this week. I maintain a similar list of arguments that warrant caution ~ waynewhaley.witterlester@gmail.com

THE NASDAQ AFTER DOUBLE DIGIT CONSECUTIVE POSITIVE DAYS On Monday, April 20, the Nasdaq finished down 0.44% for the day, snapping a 13 day winning streak. Not knowing how long the streak would extend, I attempted to be proactive and built the below table with the results for all the +10 or more cases of consecutive days. I suppose one could gravitate toward their preference of the 10 to 13 cases since they all arguably apply but I think worthy of note, the following month performance was significantly above the norm across the board. I only see seven prior occasions where, similar to the current case, the Nasdaq posted 13 consecutive positive days. If we back up one day and look at the 12 day case, we get a decent 13 case size. I'll share the details of that case.

THE S&P DURING THE WEEK OF APRIL21-28 OF MIDDLE ELECTION YEARS I see the S&P during April21-28 of mid election years as 6-18 since 1930 for an avg loss of 1.61% with the 1% moves 2-13. As reference, the S&P was 52-44 for an avg loss of 0.19% during the same week of all post 1930 years.

Tech Sector Rally Echoes 2002: Buy Or Sell Signal? - State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (ARCA - Benzinga benzinga.com/markets/tech/2…

@jasongoepfert What is the precise closing date for the 154 level? Next Wednesday April 29th?

Why the coming week is crucial... Tech stocks rallied 20% in 3 weeks. That's (usually) either a market bottom or a near-peak in a bear market rally. The big tell: if buyers persisted over the following week, it was (usually) the former. Bulls want $XLK > 154 next week.

Trump extends ceasefire in Iran, citing 'seriously fractured' Iranian government cnbc.com/2026/04/21/tru…

Dow rises 200 points as Trump predicts a deal with Iran before ceasefire expires: Live updates cnb.cx/4mK7SVp

Another breadth datapoint worth flagging: a Nasdaq Breadth Thrust fired last week. It’s only the 8th first signal in a 12-month period in our test history. Historically, the Nasdaq was higher 1 year later in every prior case, though as always this is best respected when price confirms.

I've heard of Breadth Thrusts and Volume Thrusts, but Wayne Whaley just documented a bona fide Price Thrust for the first time I’m aware of. So even though we haven’t gotten Breakaway Momentum or a Zweig Breadth Thrust, the Whaley Price Thrust that was triggered Friday seems to be in the same league. (There have only been eight since 1950, for example.) I don’t have permission to share it... but if you’ve been waiting for Breakaway Momentum, wanted you to know that we do have a Whaley Price Thrust now. I'm hoping he’ll share it more widely. Meanwhile, you can follow @WayneWhaley1136 or email him at waynewhaley.witterlester@gmail.com

The S&P 500 is up 9.2% in April so far, which would be the 3rd best ever. Did you know the top two Aprils ever (2009 and 2020) saw stocks gain 28% and 29% the rest of the year? No, we don't expect that, but we also think the odds of a strong rest of year is likely.

Larry McMillan Stock Market Update Video 4/20/2026 youtu.be/kvHxFKmQyiA?si… via @YouTube

For the first time since COVID, S&P 500 is now 6.5% above its 20DMA. A level traded just 0.45% of the time. This isn’t an exhaustion signal. Au contraire, it usually aligned with continued strength. In 15 prior cases, $SPX took a median of 10 months to reach its 12 month peak.

The 11.9% gain in the S&P 500 over the last 3 weeks was the 13th biggest 3-week gain for the index since 1950. What's unique about this rally? It's the only example in the top 20 that did not occur either during a bear market or soon after a bear market low.

A Nasdaq Breadth Thrust has been triggered. These signals are relatively rare, but historically have often been followed by favorable outcomes, reflecting broad-based momentum. Not a guarantee, but one of the more favorable signals when confirmed by price action. Read Full Analysis: sentimentrader.com/pricing

Larry McMillan Stock Market Update Video 4/20/2026 youtu.be/kvHxFKmQyiA?si… via @YouTube

First observation: there will be no deal. The ceasefire will end & the war will re-commence. Second observation: the US has been flooding the Theater with reinforcements, resupplies & performing maintenance on air assets non-stop, & re-arming warships. The force is ready & its larger than its ever been. Third observation: every key player left in the regime surfaced from their hide holes & safe houses during this ceasefire. The regime ‘negotiation’ team sent to stall America. The IRGC thugs who showed up in Islamabad to stop the Iranian Regime delegation from making any deals. The midlevel staffers going between the IRGC thug leadership & the IRGC cannon fodder still shooting at ships. All of them broke cover & came back up on the grid. From that point on, they were visible to the human intelligence networks watching them, the persistent ISR assets watching 24 hours a day, 7 days a week without pause— spy satellites, stealth & non stealth drones, manned reconnaissance aircraft. From the moment this ceasefire started, everyone who is a key player in Iran’s continued resistance came back on the grid & have been surveilled ever since. The intelligence mosaic is fully fleshed out & these targets are being tracked in real time, and the strike plans created with the help of AI are already set & planned. When the ceasefire ends, the strikes will be begin with such rapid speed, & precision it will be much more savage & fearsome than the first round. Fourth observation: Iran received drones, SAM missile systems & radars & intelligence from China during this ceasefire & this is still ongoing. This is what’s driving the remnants of the IRGC to continue the war. They do not fully comprehend what is set to take place, or how completely unable to counter it or survive it they are. That’s partly due to history, partly due to institutional arrogance of IRGC, & partly & most importantly because China & Russia simply do not understand our full capabilities— in terms of intelligence collection, planning, speed we can act on those things, & how good our situational awareness of the battlefield is. That last one is the key: the disconnect— how clear & complete our granular picture all the way up to the grand strategic picture is, compared to how blinded & how fragmented the situational awareness of the Iranians is. That last part is what really, really scares Russia & China— the vast gap in cognitive capabilities & situational awareness capabilites between the US & them scares them because its a gap they cant bridge, & beyond that the speed we can act on that clear picture is something they cant match. This war is going to restart after the ceasefire ends, & all hell is going to break loose— & the ferocity of what comes next is going to genuinely surprise the IRGC fanatics driving events in this direction.