Hemnigway CapItal Trading Advisor

66 posts

Hemnigway CapItal Trading Advisor

Hemnigway CapItal Trading Advisor

@jjjackiemon

Katılım Mayıs 2012
77 Takip Edilen26 Takipçiler
Hemingway Capital
Hemingway Capital@lfg_cap·
One of those incredible pivot you’ll see from an insider. 🚀
Dan McAteer@daniel_mac8

karpathy on Dwarkesh in Oct. '25: > AI agents don't work > They are not intelligent enough > They are not multi-modal enough > They can't do computer use karpathy on @NoPriorsPod in March '26: > AI agents fail but it's a skill issue for the humans > You didn't give them the right instructions AI agents absolutely hit an inflection point in December of 2025 and there's no looking back.

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Hemingway Capital
Hemingway Capital@lfg_cap·
H100s are worth more today per hour than 18 months ago. Yet per token prices have collapsed >90%. GPU economics are improving at every level. Don’t let @michaeljburry break your brain.
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Hemingway Capital
Hemingway Capital@lfg_cap·
I think there's still pain in Software to come. @satyanadella told you that you have to be willing to halve margins to address this much larger opportunity. I don't think most software companies will be able to pivot. You need: 1/ the willingness to take gross margins down to build agents and end-to-end workflows that actually don't break and handle context limits 2/ the talent to do it and get the tooling right 3/ the will to disrupt your own pricing model (worse impact to OP than perp license -> subscription in the near term). Very few of these can or will do all three at once.
TechStockFundamentals@TechFundies

The interesting thing about SaaS is the market basically went through a gut-wrenching process where it put every possible AI fear on the table culminating with "we're all out of jobs". The downward price movement emotionally reinforced the validity of these concerns into investors' minds. And when stocks are going down quickly, it allows anyone to say whatever bearish thing comes to mind without getting laughed out of the room (and vice versa when stocks are ripping). But now we are perhaps at a point where any investor who holds shares in SaaS has digested these concerns and already determined they are in. In other words, I would think most people who own SaaS at this point are much firmer hands than a few months ago. Like what needs to happen from here to get current investors to sell? And is that going to happen shortly? Will be interesting to see how it plays out from here.

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Hemingway Capital
Hemingway Capital@lfg_cap·
In this time of war and other irrelevant stuff, I thought helpful to remind people. Capex → tokens → revenue The market is still pricing it the wrong way around.
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