Michael Party

@Demeter_Erinia Our family minivan easily had state maps of 30 of the 50 states jammed in the glovebox. Then you printed out map quest directions.

Serious question… How did people get to places before GPS??

@zacurate @Pref_Right Traveling atm but will see what I can find. Someone else will probably beat me to it. My dad (geo) was doing some strawn exploration a decade or so ago so I called him about this and he was filling me in on what they had found.

@jmichaelparty @Pref_Right I'd like to see that!

SM Energy ($SM) is reporting Strawn IPs up to 1,472 bbl/d in the southern Midland Basin. Impressive. I've seen a lot of IP reports. It goes like this: Buy minerals on IP rates -> File BK -> Divorce -> Cry The only number that matters is what the well does in months 12-24. IP is a first date. EUR is the marriage. 4cast doesn't sell first dates - Piper

@zacurate @Pref_Right Was just chatting with a geo on this apparently they ran some perfs in the vertical of one of the wells in the Strawn?

@Pref_Right That part should matter a lot, too. Please confirm based on your best practices: WF = Woodford Woodford = Woodford

Oil watchers, for the second month in a row, the IEA is providing a free version of its monthly Oil Market Report. The free version has all the same analysis as the subscription report. It just lacks some of the tables provided in the paid version. iea.org/reports/oil-ma…

"Do you think China has any ability to influence Iran?" "Yeah, but..."

Fox released a teaser for Trump's sit-down with Bret Baier in China, in which Trump said Xi was happy to help any way he could with Iran. I'm going to predict that when the full interview comes out tonight, it will come with the caveat, "but we don't need their help."

We are not going to see any headlines of China pressuring Iran into a deal...

What will Asian traders do when they realize that Xi isn’t coming to rescue Trump and that there’s no grand bargain to open the Strait of Hormuz?

This is a great point. In fact, on federal lands the mineral rights belong to the government who typically sells those rights to oil companies while maintaining a royalty interest. For non federal lands, oil and gas rights were historically owned by the original citizen land owner. Over time the landowner may have severed those rights from the surface and sold them. At some point, a citizen who owns those rights sells them to an oil and gas company, again often keeping a royalty interest. So you are absolutely right, the resources belong to the citizens, just sometimes they willingly choose to sell them to an oil and gas company to develop them.

@jmichaelparty @EricLDaugh Americas oil belongs to the citizens, not oil. These resources belong to Americans. They should be reaping dividends every month. Like Alaska gives dividends to its citizens. Trump needs to make our resources to profit all. Oil company’s are thief’s just like congress.

🚨 MASSIVE DEVELOPMENT: President Trump announces oil and gas companies have informed him they're 100% DITCHING the Strait of Hormuz — and are picking Texas, USA instead They like going through US better. Imagine that. "We've become very big on the filling station. We're a big filling station. And what's happening is, when this first, when people heard about losing Hormuz, they said, oh, this is, it's genius." "They're finding other locations. And some of those people, I spoke to companies in countries. Some of those people are going to continue to go to Texas." "They like it better. They said, it's an extra 45 minutes. They like it better. And it's sort of amazing, you know, it found its way." "So a lot of people thought oil would go to $250, $300. It's not. I mean, today it's at less than a hundred." "Think of that. Now, when this ends, you're going to see a drop like a rock." 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Jet fuel shortages force Air India to cancel 27% of international flights. - Cutting nearly 140 flights per week, 27% of its total international flights - Will fly fewer flights to North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia cnbc.com/2026/05/14/ira…

@DarioCpx For WTI, there's been a $13/bbl difference between May26 futures close and average WTI Cushing Spot month-to-date. I wouldn't want to be carrying a short into FND on Monday...

Big oil futures options expiration today and big OPEX tomorrow, be assured market makers will keep volatility well under control to avoid shocks. We will only know on Monday whether the market is finally taking the middle east crisis, especially the oil shock, seriously or not.

WTI May26 settled at $89.61/bbl last month. So far this month, WTI spot has averaged $102.62/bbl, a $13/bbl difference. If futures trade cheap enough versus expected physical value, will more traders will be willing to force conversion into delivery to capture the spread?

World oil market ‘severely undersupplied,’ to stay in deficit until Q4: IEA ▪️IEA sees 420,000 b/d annual demand contraction ▪️Oil supply on track to fall by 3.9 million b/d in 2026 ▪️Americas supply forecast increased by 600,000 b/d 🖥️Full story: okt.to/OnAdYe

@ZmansEnrgyBrain Fair, technically, but I think the DOE will push out the returns until the crisis is over (or at least less crisis-y).

@jmichaelparty Depends on loan return timing. We can see SPR storage going both ways concurrently.

SPR could go < 300 mm barrels. #SPR #OOTT

@StoolTennis Smoke break or smoke delay?

Classic

@JavierBlas I believe China is not going to help broker a deal between Iran and the US. They have the strategic inventories to weather the storm and are not going to save the US from disrupting the global economy. What's the famous quote attributed to Napoleon?

The US openly admits it needs China on Iran. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the White House is trying to convince Beijing "to play a more active role in getting Iran to walk away from what they’re doing now, and trying to do now, in the Persian Gulf."

@CRUDEOIL231 I don't know if I believe the US LTO growth forecast. We're getting to the point that rig adds wont hit production adds until 2027.

I’m absolutely livid. It’s clear that even the IEA, supposedly the last bastion of integrity, has been bought off by those dirty oil bulls. They’re actually forecasting non-OPEC+ production growth at a measly 820kb/d this year, with the US supposedly growing by only 610kb/d. Is this some kind of joke? I sold CLZ26 at $70/bbl, fully trusting the Fintwit gurus who promised hundreds of millions of barrels would come flooding out of LATAM, Canada, US, and WAF—and now the IEA is stabbing me in the back. I’m telling you, non-OPEC+ growth will definitely exceed 3mb/d this year! Fuck you IEA! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! #oott #iran

Last time I picked up a supplement at @VitaminShoppe, I was asked if I wanted to subscribe and save 15%. This is a daily supplement, felt like a good option. They didn't mention that they would charge for shipping, and I blindly signed up. Net effect was paying 67% more...

@ysteve747 This aligns with the EIA's view of inventories in the second half of the year, even if they didn't want to publicly state what price would accompany those inventory levels...

What you think oil brethren? 🛢️📈