James Groves

Reflecting on 2021 for 1st Regiment, Royal Australian #Artillery. Our #Gunners demonstrate precision, accuracy & attention to detail as individuals but it is their #teamwork - their ability to form trusted & trusting teams - that is the mark of #GoodSoldiering | #1RegtRAA #Ubique

SUMMARY: 1) embrace complexity: systems thinking & wildcards more useful than linear forecasts. 2) scan for poss shocks: ID weak signals in tech, doctrine & social resilience. 3) Test assumptions: Use scenarios to explore alt futures, including protraction & escalation dynamics.

A few days ago I distilled the key themes from @WarintheFuture's latest article for @csis. This thread draws out the most salient #StrategicForesight (#FuturesMethods in Commonwealth parlance!) lessons from the same source. Summary at the end... 🧵 csis.org/analysis/seven…

4. MOBILISATION AND PEOPLE CAPABILITY. Observation: 🇺🇦's adaptive mobilisation efforts contrast with 🇷🇺 's rigid structures. Futures lesson: Incorporate human factors analysis & alternate futures into long-range force generation and force design scenarios.

3. RESILIENCE = INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY & MUST BE STRESS TESTED. Observation: Strategic endurance depends on industrial capacity & supply chain resilience. Futures lesson: Stress-testing and network mapping (nodal analysis) can help explore vulnerabilities in national productivity.

2. TECHNOLOGY IS A DRIVER. Observation: Rapid integration of drones, AI-enabled targeting, & #EW #EMSO show accelerated tech diffusion in wartime. Futures lesson: We should monitor weak signals of dual-use tech and assess 2nd & 3rd order effects on concepts, doctrine & TTPs.

1. WAR IS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM. Observation: The 🇺🇦 war illustrates nonlinear adaptation: actors continuously adjust strategies, tech & narratives. Futures lesson: Scenario planning (alt futures) must account for iterative feedback loops & emergent behaviors, not static endstates.

Key Theme 3: Strategic endurance and industrial resilience. Industrial capacity and ability to adapt national production to wartime needs are decisive. Bernard Brodick @RANDCorporation told us in 1959 that "strategy wears a dollar sigh" & UKR experience proves this yet again. END

I really engaged with @WarintheFuture latest insights into the state of the Ukraine War for @CSIS. Key themes for me described in short thread but notable inclusion is the TRAINING SYSTEM of both sides and the role ot plays in their ability to adapt... 🧵 csis.org/analysis/seven…

Key Theme 2: Positional Warfare is back and Adaptation is core. The war has reverted to attritional, positional warfare on many fronts, requiring adaptation in combined arms and field engineering. Continuous adaptation is required everywhere, esp in urban combat, ISR and fires...

@WarintheFuture @CSIS Key theme 1: FORGEN and Mobilisation. Force Generation and Mobilization. UKR's ability to mobilise & employ forces "in stride" in war highlights importance of adaptive training systems. RUS’s struggles with force quality & agility in training shows the risk of rigid structures...

@3BrigadeTSV Outstanding. You've also breathed new life - closer to home in an Australian context - into Fehrenbach's (sp?) timeless quote.

‘[Their] human material was not one whit better than that of the human society from which it came. But it had been hammered into form in a different forge, hardened with a different fire.’ Part of 3 Bde (Armoured) Headquarters completing their second Combat PESA this week. Start time: 4 am at 27 degrees celsius and 84% humidity. A gruelling 2.5 hour standard that, like the battlefield, doesn’t discriminate trade, age or gender.

4. Accelerate insight to action! Adaptation: 🇷🇺 rapid fielding of RAS at scale shows a short loop between concept & capability or @NATO_ACT say “from foresight to warfight”! Foresight: Foresight teams must analyse short-term challenge, not “just” long-term, multi-year foresight.

I think there are some very pragmatic observations to be drawn from @DVKirichenko's latest @Forbes article covering Russian #Rubicon program. For me, there's 4 key lessons on #adaptation and #StrategicForesight. A very short thread... 🧵 forbes.com/sites/davidkir…

3. Protect your mavericks & challenge assumptions! Adaptation lesson: Proliferation of drones challenges many assumptions. Foresight implic'n: 'Key assumption checks' are vital, deliberately challenge org. assumptions using M&S, wargaming, scenario planning & experimentation...

2. Institute feedback loops! Adaptation lesson: Rubicon’s success is partly due bottom-up innov & rapid feedback. Foresight impl'n: Need to understand grassroots insights (‘detect’), determine external validity ('decide’) & generate ‘real-time’ learning & TTPs (‘disseminate’)...

1. Embrace emergent disruptions! Adaptation lesson: 🇷🇺 rapid adoption of COTS drones shows how disruptive tech can emerge from non-traditional sources. Foresight implication: horizon scanning must be sensitive to weak signals. This sensitivity demands resourcing...

@CSISDefense 1) Argues landpower is a tool not just of warfighting but of strategic influence in competition. 2) IDs the Land Domain as hub that “links, sustains and amplifies effects across domains”. 3) Affirms that Land Forces provide persistence, presence &value that others can't sustain.

Recent article from Benjamin Jensen at @CSISDefense on the evolution of #LandPower. Worth your read. Three main themes for me... 🧵 csis.org/analysis/chapt…

Finally, WHY IT MATTERS! In our strategic environment, uncertainty is constant. Using fear as a tool not a threat can enhance our ability to anticipate change, prioritise measures which aid our resilience, and SHAPE THE FUTURE rather than merely respond to it. Love this stuff!!

My latest #StrategicForesight offering - this one from @wef #GlobalRisks by my friend Dr Florence Gaub @NATO_DefCollegee who offers that fear is not a negative force, it can be a catalyst for proactive, strategic thinking, enhancing preparedness... 🧵 weforum.org/stories/2025/1…

4. Organisations that embrace #foresight & scenario planning are shown to be better equipped to navigate complexity & uncertainty. Fear, when detected and channelled rationally, can help build institutions enhance #adaptation, agility and #preparedness...