Joequant
36.7K posts
Joequant
@joequant
Physicist and Space Cadet @MIT @UTAustin
Hong Kong Katılım Haziran 2009
94 Takip Edilen5.2K Takipçiler
The basic logic of population decline is playing out in Japan in stark form. Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped!
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@joequant @Brad_Setser That is what EU is threatening to impose with tariffs. Smartass.
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Great description of the European trade relationship with China from Jens Eskelund:
"it’s a 400-metre-long giant container ship loaded with 24,000 containers going to Europe and coming back almost empty"
1/3
Finbarr Bermingham@fbermingham
A sinking ship? Why the EU and China could be heading for a trade war Fiery clashes at a conference in Beijing reflect wider tensions that threaten to descend into economic conflict - my report on rapidly worsening EU-China ties for our weekend paper scmp.com/news/china/dip…
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@joequant It doesn't really makes sense for smaller countries to invest in LLMs, the barrier for entry is pretty high and giants on the market won't let any market share. You are better off taking open source models and run them on your own hardware for sensible applications.
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There's one big sign that Europe's problems with exports isn't China's fault, and you can ask yourself where are the great new European AI models. There's only one set of models which are European (mistral which is French). But where are the great German, British, or Japanese
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AI models. I would like to see how @Brad_Setser explain how revaluing the CNY will create the next great German AI software (or German internet software). The other thing is that the fact that Europe is falling behind is why I have been arguing against @michaelxpettis.
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At this point you just have to have Europe put together a response rather than have China try to accommodate Europe. The thing about Europe is that different parts of Europe want different things.
Brad Setser@Brad_Setser
And yes, an increasingly one sided trade relationship (European exports to China are falling, China's huge exports to Europe are rising) will lead to a European response if China continues to resist significant policy changes 3/3 scmp.com/news/china/dip…
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@SomethingOnSnow Had China not done the policy, the birth rate would have eventually gone down, but it might have been because of starvation and the "Soylent Green" outcome. The thing about planning ahead is that you can see the options, and the options that we are here at are pretty good.
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Yes. If you look at the papers that were written in the 1970's the current population decline was predicted pretty accurately.
New Liberals 🇺🇦🇹🇼🌐@CNLiberalism
The Chinese will look at you with a straight face and say “we think in centuries” as they plunge into a demographic crisis caused by one-child policy
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@CNLiberalism The trouble here is that the population numbers that we are seeing were predicted in the 1980's when the one child policy was enacted. The belief in the 1980's was that once the population dropped that we would be able to go into robots. The alternative was starvation.
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The Chinese will look at you with a straight face and say “we think in centuries” as they plunge into a demographic crisis caused by one-child policy
Lara Logan@laralogan
When I was reporting for 60 Minutes in China, I was told by people I met that they regard America as inferior, specifically because they say the U.S. does not understand how to play the long game. They said with disdain: “We think in terms of centuries - Americans can only think in terms of minutes.”
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@teortaxesTex Yeah. The crazy thing is that everything that China is going through was foreseen in the 1980's when they started this policy. The alternative was everyone starving.
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One other reason this argument is dumb is that One Child Policy IS an example of thinking in centuries. It's just that their theory was dumb (and may yet *accidentally* prove to be OK). But the intention was explicitly about outcomes a century later.
A lesson in here, perhaps
New Liberals 🇺🇦🇹🇼🌐@CNLiberalism
The Chinese will look at you with a straight face and say “we think in centuries” as they plunge into a demographic crisis caused by one-child policy
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@Brad_Setser China is no longer interested in any significant policy changes. So you might as will go with the response.
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And yes, an increasingly one sided trade relationship (European exports to China are falling, China's huge exports to Europe are rising) will lead to a European response if China continues to resist significant policy changes
3/3
scmp.com/news/china/dip…
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Since the time Chang wrote his book, the West has had two major financial crisis (2008 and COVID), and what's crazy is that there is another one that is about to hit us once the oil shock hits. So we don't have a few years to wait for China to collapse. We have a few months
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One thing about @Brad_Setser and @michaelxpettis is that they both seem to think that the West has the luxury of time, when I am more alarmed. So the idea is that you can just have a dozen more meetings of the IMF and European Council and then wait a few years to rebalance.
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