Joe Steele

Hey, I’m Joe, Certified Nutrition Coach. Hacked To Health—food swaps for 40+ parents like us. Small steps, big wins.

@CodifyBaseball Contrast that with annual salary

How Often MLB Starters Pitched 7+ Innings: 1988: 48% 1989: 44% 1990: 41% 1991: 42% 1992: 44% 1993: 41% 1994: 41% 1995: 37% 1996: 37% 1997: 38% 1998: 38% 1999: 34% 2000: 36% 2001: 34% 2002: 35% 2003: 33% 2004: 32% 2005: 35% 2006: 31% 2007: 29% 2008: 29% 2009: 29% 2010: 34% 2011: 34% 2012: 30% 2013: 31% 2014: 31% 2015: 29% 2016: 23% 2017: 19% 2018: 18% 2019: 16% 2020: 11% 2021: 13% 2022: 14% 2023: 12% 2024: 13% 2025: 11% 2026: 9%

Last quarter, you approved something you already had doubts about. Not because it was right — because slowing it down would have cost another week. Nothing broke. No one pushed it back. The room moved on. Six weeks later, it came back. Not as a failure. As rework. A second conversation. Time you didn’t expect to spend again. Most people call that execution. It isn’t. The decision didn’t change. The situation didn’t change. You did. There’s a version of you that holds things open longer. Lets competing views sit. Pushes for precision before closure. And there’s a version that doesn’t. Where the call gets made faster than it should. Because moving forward matters more than getting it right. From the inside, that feels like clarity. It isn’t. It’s the point where decisions start to come back. joesteele.com

There is a specific moment in a leader’s week that tells you more about their decision quality than anything that happens in the meeting itself. It is the twenty minutes before the pre-read gets read. Most senior leaders receive materials ahead of consequential decisions. Board decks. Investment memos. Hiring summaries. Vendor assessments. The assumption behind all of them is simple: the person making the call will engage with it before the conversation starts. At a certain point, that stops happening. Not because the leader doesn’t care. Because they’ve seen enough. They’ve pattern-matched enough situations that they think they already know where they’re going before they read what anyone else has written. So the document gets skimmed. Or deferred. Or absorbed on the way in. The meeting starts. The questions sound like questions. The engagement looks like engagement. The decision comes out looking like it was shaped in the room. It wasn’t. The tell shows up later. The decisions that come back — the ones that require rework, the ones other people spend time correcting or re-explaining — are disproportionately the ones where the leader arrived already knowing what they were going to say. The pre-read didn’t shape the decision. It confirmed it. Strong leaders don’t break under pressure. They narrow. Decision State is what that costs. joesteele.com

There is a version of an organizational problem that never gets solved because it gets built around instead. It usually involves a person. Someone who is producing enough to stay but not enough to justify the cost they are creating. A role that was designed around their specific strengths and gaps rather than around what the function actually needs. A team that has quietly learned to route around them rather than through them. The organization is not broken. It is adapted. Meetings get structured to minimize the friction. Decisions that should involve them get pre-resolved before they arrive. Projects get assigned to people who will not require as much management. The function keeps moving. The person stays in place. This is expensive in ways that do not show up cleanly. The cost is not in what gets done badly. It is in what does not get attempted. The initiative nobody proposes because the proposal would have to go through that conversation. The hire that does not happen because the org chart would require restructuring something nobody wants to touch. The strategy that stays narrow because expanding it would surface the thing everyone is routing around. The tell is not performance. It is the shape of what does not exist. What your organization has stopped trying to do because the path to doing it runs through a problem you have been accommodating instead of solving. Strong leaders don’t break under pressure. They narrow. Decision State is what that costs.
joesteele.com

The most expensive board conversations are the ones that should not have been surprises. Not the hard ones — the ones where the board pushes back on strategy or challenges an assumption you have been carrying. Those are supposed to happen. The expensive ones are the conversations where information surfaces in the room that was already present in your organization. When that happens it is tempting to treat it as a communication failure. Someone dropped the ball. The reporting structure has a gap. The cadence needs to change. More often it is a signal about something else. The information did not reach you because the people closest to it made a judgment that bringing it forward unresolved was more costly than holding it until it had a cleaner shape. The board conversation was a symptom. The gap between what existed and what reached you is the thing worth examining. Strong leaders don’t break under pressure. They narrow. Decision State is what that costs.

At some point the problems stopped arriving unfinished. Not because the organization ran out of problems. Because the people closest to them learned, over time, that bringing an unresolved problem to the person at the top required a kind of navigation that was not always worth it. So they started resolving things before they surfaced them. Or holding them until they had a cleaner version. Or routing them around the conversation that would be hardest to have. This is not disloyalty. It is adaptation. Smart people in any environment learn what the environment rewards. If the environment rewards clean answers, they will bring clean answers. The messy version — the one that still has questions attached, the one that requires the leader to sit with uncertainty for more than thirty seconds — stops making the trip. By the time this is visible it has been operating for months. The leader is still receiving information. The dashboards still update. The weekly reviews still happen. But the quality of what is reaching the decision-maker has quietly degraded. The problems that need the most attention are the ones being pre-processed the most heavily before they arrive. The tell is not silence. Silence would be obvious. The tell is polish. When every update is crisp, every risk is framed as manageable, every concern arrives with a proposed solution already attached — that is not a high-functioning team. That is a team that has learned what version of reality you are willing to receive. Strong leaders don’t break under pressure. They narrow. Decision State is what that costs. joesteele.com

The same decision made in two different windows produces two different outcomes. Most executives understand this in theory. Almost none of them operate like it is true. There is a version of you that makes good calls. Careful ones. The kind where you sit with the information before you close it, push back on the framing before you accept it, ask one more question before you sign. That version of you exists. It is not available on demand. It does not show up equally at 9am on Monday and 4:47pm on Thursday. It does not perform identically in week one of an executive search and week eleven. It does not hold the same standard in Q1 when the pipeline looks healthy and Q3 when two quarters of pressure have accumulated and the board is asking questions you do not yet have answers to. The decisions that cost the most are almost never made by leaders who lacked information or intelligence. They are made by leaders who had the right information in the wrong window. The contract reviewed at end of day after six calls. The hire approved in week eleven of an open role. The pivot that moved before the room had fully spoken because the room had been meeting about it for six weeks and everyone was tired of the conversation. The window is not an excuse. It is a variable. The leaders who account for it make fewer expensive mistakes. The ones who treat their judgment as a fixed resource keep explaining numbers that started building in a room they barely remember. Strong leaders don’t break under pressure. They narrow. Decision State is what that costs.

At some point the problems stopped arriving unfinished. Not because the organization ran out of problems. Because the people closest to them learned, over time, that bringing an unresolved problem to the person at the top required a kind of navigation that was not always worth it. So they started resolving things before they surfaced them. Or holding them until they had a cleaner version. Or routing them around the conversation that would be hardest to have. This is not disloyalty. It is adaptation. Smart people in any environment learn what the environment rewards. If the environment rewards clean answers, they will bring clean answers. The messy version — the one that still has questions attached, the one that requires the leader to sit with uncertainty for more than thirty seconds — stops making the trip. By the time this is visible it has been operating for months. The leader is still receiving information. The dashboards still update. The weekly reviews still happen. But the quality of what is reaching the decision-maker has quietly degraded. The problems that need the most attention are the ones being pre-processed the most heavily before they arrive. The tell is not silence. Silence would be obvious. The tell is polish. When every update is crisp, every risk is framed as manageable, every concern arrives with a proposed solution already attached — that is not a high-functioning team. That is a team that has learned what version of reality you are willing to receive. Strong leaders don’t break under pressure. They narrow. Decision State is what that costs. joesteele.com

Decisive and stopped updating look identical until the cost shows up. The decisive leader reads the situation fast, commits early, and moves. The one who has stopped updating does the same thing. Same speed. Same confidence. Same forward motion. From the outside, in the meeting, in the quarterly review — they are indistinguishable. The difference is what happens with new information. The decisive leader integrates it. Not slowly — they can move fast and still adjust. The one who has stopped updating absorbs it without changing anything. The information enters the room and gets processed as confirmation or noise. There is no third category. I have been in rooms where a leader received a direct and credible challenge to a major assumption and came out of the conversation more confident in the original position. Not because they had rebutted the challenge. Because they had reclassified the person who raised it. That is the tell. Not the speed of the decision. What happens to the information that arrives after it. Strong leaders don’t break under pressure. They narrow. Decision State is what that costs.

It does not announce itself. There is no meeting where someone says the curiosity has left the building. It goes the way most things go — incrementally, and then all at once. First it is just the questions that feel redundant. You have been in enough rooms. You already know how this plays out. So you stop asking. Not all the questions — just the ones you think you know the answer to. Which is most of them. Then it is the follow-up. Someone says something interesting and you register it but you do not pull the thread. There is too much else. The meeting moves on. You move on. Then it is the new information. Someone brings a perspective that does not fit the model you are working from and instead of updating the model you update the credibility of the person who brought it. They do not have enough context. They are not seeing the full picture. The model stays intact. By the time it is visible — by the time someone in the room feels it — it has been happening for months. The leader is still sharp. Still decisive. The questions are just gone. And the decisions are narrower than they were a year ago, in ways nobody has named yet. Strong leaders don't break under pressure. They narrow. Decision State is what that costs.

There is a version of tired that is just tired. You need sleep, a weekend, a few days without a calendar. You come back and the thinking is clear again. Most leaders know this version. They have a protocol for it. There is another version that looks identical from the outside and is not tired at all. The leader is protecting a position. Not consciously. Not defensively. Just — quietly. The thinking has narrowed around a set of conclusions that feel settled, and new information is getting evaluated against those conclusions instead of alongside them. The difference shows up in one place: what happens when someone pushes back. A tired leader engages. They might be slower than usual, less sharp, easier to frustrate — but they're still in the conversation. A leader protecting position deflects. Professionally, reasonably, without obvious defensiveness. But the pushback doesn't land. It gets acknowledged and then absorbed without changing anything. I've watched this in rooms where everyone could feel it but nobody named it. The leader was still performing. Still present. Still running the meeting. But something had closed. The cost showed up two quarters later when three decisions that should have been revisited weren't, because the window for revisiting them had quietly shut. Tired is recoverable. The other thing requires someone in the room willing to name it. Strong leaders don't break under pressure. They narrow. Decision State is what that costs.

There is a specific shift that happens when a leader stops managing the problem and starts managing how the problem looks. It is subtle enough that the leader usually does not catch it. The meetings are still happening. The updates are still going out. The language is still confident. But the work has changed. The focus moved from solving to explaining. From fixing to framing. I watched this play out in real time. A product launch that was running late — the early conversations were operational, specific, problem-forward. By week six the conversations were about messaging. How to position the delay. What to tell the board. Who needed to hear what and when. The launch was still broken. The team had shifted to managing the narrative around the broken launch. The tell is the prep time. When the time spent preparing for a stakeholder conversation starts to exceed the time spent on the underlying problem, something has already moved. The leader is no longer primarily in the work. They are in the story about the work. That shift does not show up in performance metrics for a while. Which is exactly what makes it expensive. Strong leaders don't break under pressure. They narrow. Decision State is what that costs.

The decision that causes the problem is rarely the one anyone is looking at. The hire that did not work out — the visible decision — usually traces back to a quieter one made two weeks earlier. The moment someone in the room said we need to move on this and the timeline compressed and two reference calls got skipped and the final conversation happened over lunch instead of a proper debrief. Nobody flagged the compressed timeline as a decision. It felt like a circumstance. Something that happened to the process rather than a choice made inside it. That is the pattern. The decision that costs you is almost never the last one. It is the earlier, quieter one that narrowed what was still possible by the time you got to the room. I watched this in real estate closings where the price negotiation was already over before anyone sat down. In brand integration conversations where the fee ceiling had already been set internally before the first call with the brand. In board conversations where the outcome was known two days before the meeting but everyone sat through it anyway. The cost is not in the room. The room is just where it becomes visible. Strong leaders don't break under pressure. They narrow. Decision State is what that costs. joesteele.com

Year one, you argued about everything. Which market to enter first. Which hire to prioritize. Whether the pricing model was right. The arguments were slow and sometimes expensive, but they were real — real options, real pushback, real consideration. Year three, the arguments are shorter. Decisions move faster. People come to you having already pre-aligned. You take that as a sign that the team has matured. It might be. Or it might be that the team has learned what you're willing to hear. This is what makes the drift hard to catch. The surface behavior — speed, alignment, decisiveness — looks like progress. Performance metrics don't capture what's no longer being considered. Your board doesn't see the options that stopped reaching the table. The people around you adapted so smoothly that the adapted version became the baseline. I kept seeing this pattern across five years of conversations with founders and executives. The options considered in year three were a fraction of what they were in year one. Revenue was up. Headcount was up. The range of what was actually on the table had quietly collapsed. Nobody flagged it. It didn't look like a problem. It looked like experience. Strong leaders don't break under pressure. They narrow. Decision State is what that costs.

There's a specific moment in a high-stakes decision when evaluation stops and defense begins. Most people can't feel it when it happens. They think they're still weighing options. They're not. The tell is what you do with new information. If you're evaluating, new information changes the weighting. You slow down. You ask a follow-up. If you're defending, new information becomes something to account for — a wrinkle to smooth out before you move forward. I've watched this happen in real estate deals, in casting decisions on film sets, in hiring conversations at the executive level. The outward behavior looks almost identical in both states. The internal machinery is completely different. The cost shows up in the rework. The re-org six months later. The vendor renegotiation. The quiet exit of someone who saw it coming and decided the conversation wasn't worth having. By the time the cost is visible, the decision is months old. Nobody connects them cleanly. That's what makes it hard to fix. Strong leaders don't break under pressure. They narrow. Decision State is what that costs.

@Breaking911 AI could do this job

FED CHAIR POWELL: "Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged."

@calleymeans Something tells me they wanted to release this on Mother’s Day

The New York Times needs to see more data to decide whether it’s better for kids to be raised by their parents or a stranger. This is a real head scratcher.

Why in the world would anyone care about the alleged political pasts of @calleymeans and @CaseyMeansMD ? If their initiatives (which are legit) can make kids healthier, does it really matter?

The evidence becomes more and more clear

I’d love to hear your drinking hacks—don’t be shy! 🍷 What works for you to cut back? #HealthyLiving

Don’t hold back—share your drinking hacks! I’m curious! 🍷 #HealthHacks

1/3 THREAD: 🍷 Just 8 drinks a week—1 a day—ups your brain lesion risk by 133%! It’s linked to memory issues & Alzheimer’s. Busy adults, let’s unpack this! #HealthHacks #Nutrition