peter higgins
33 posts
$ONDS
I went deep into Ondas’ complete Q1 2026 10-Q - far past the headline revenue and cash numbers.
What’s really interesting is hidden in the fine print: Asia revenue, service revenue, inventory build-up, earn-outs, customer concentration, Networks and how Ondas is strategically positioning its cash.
It’s still a complex story where execution is the key challenge. After this quarter, I’m convinced Ondas has taken the decisive step. It’s moving away from being seen as just a “drone company” and toward becoming a true Defense-Tech Operating Platform:
A system of systems.
Bodoxstocks@bodoxstocks
English
$onds heard iron drone was perfect 100% in DOW TREX 2 challenge. 11 hostile drones taken down. Zero misses.
Every military base WW needs best CUAS tech. ONDS got it in spades
Paid about $1.5 mm to buy Iron Drone. It’s kicking a**/ taking names. ID IS MASSIVELY ACCRETIVE
English
$ONDS Ondas bought sentrycs for $225 mm. Sentrycs did $30 mm in sales last year. In Q1 it booked orders of $36 mm. Or an annualized RR of $144 mm
So sentrycs growing 200-400% ish
Bought for about 1.5x run rate orders. Steal of century
Accretion accretion accretion
English
$ONDS so ONDS bought Rotron for $35 mm. And its delivering up to $300 mm in Revs in NATOs eastern flank alone. If that’s not accretion I don’t know what to tell ya
The dilutionistas are mostly shorts spreading FUD. Best to ignore
English
@jamesthomason @StockSavvyShay @FuturumEquities And $5 B dollars at about 100% band 200% higher prices. In that case I say bombs away
English
@StockSavvyShay @FuturumEquities CEO former hedge fund pm with zero defense chops spent 7 years turning $1M organic revenue into $1.8B in dilutive raises to buy 5 companies in 90 days.
195M warrants at $20/$28. Every rally triggers a 42% dilution bomb. Good luck.
English
$ONDS is trying to build a full 'system-of-systems' across aerial drones, counter-drone systems, ground robotics, ISR, border security, demining and AI-enabled command-and-control.
That's where the $PLTR partnership becomes important because software is what can turn a collection of drones, sensors and robots into a real operating system.
The acquisition strategy is aggressive but this quarter made it look a lot more credible. Less like a roll-up and more like an emerging autonomous defense platform with real demand behind it.
English
@ClearEdgeTrades Of course it does. 100% organic growth expected from units owned at 12/31. 100% is not too shabby…. 49% GM in Q1. Also not shabby. PLTR is all in on ONDS/WV. Again not shabby. Today’s deal incredibly strategic and accretive too. No likey then sell IDC
English
@john_doe1479 Accretive deals only matter if integration delivers
English
$onds another extremely ACCRETIVE deal. Highly strategic. Software type margins. Recurring revs. IF PAID 4.0x revs (upper end of 2.5-4.0 range cited recently) then adds $50 mm revs. Double dip turns revs much higher. So 4x sales turns into 2.5-3x revs as part on ONDS.
English
@YoYInvestor The outright stupidity of the dilutionistas is something else. These are wildly wildly accretive deals. And wildly strategic.
Take world view for example. Paid $150 mm. Mgmt believes it’s worth over $4 B. (And they are likely conservative). 25x plus what they paid
English
If you continue to find yourself “caught off guard” by $ONDS management leveraging equity to fund acquisitions, you have no one but yourself to blame.
Management could not possibly be any clearer on their M&A strategy.
They’ve already proven their strategy is not only working, but it’s also accretive to shareholders.
Revenue per share is outpacing any new share issuance, these acquisitions fill capability gaps as they continue to expand their operating platform, and each new company creates synergies for the rest of the stack.
If you are not on board with this strategy, you need to move on and stop whining on social media.
They’ve told you what they will do, they’re doing it, and they’re delivering incredible results along the way.
Many so-called “investors” on here are actually gamblers hoping to get rich overnight, which is evidenced by their hypersensitivity to short-term price action.
If you don’t see what’s being built here, you don’t have to own the stock.
Sell and move onto something else you have higher conviction in.
It really is that simple.
English
Its mgmt wanted 100% stock. They know where this is going. Folks screaming about dilution ignore what they are buying and building. If you buy something for $200 mm that brings $600 mm or $1.0 B in value that’s accretion. All day every day
English
@fundmyfund The shares from the warrants are about 196 mm. And if you want to include the warrant shares you need to include the $5B or so cash they will generate from exercising them at $20/$28.
English
Updated $ONDS financial model sans 10Q
This will change once the 10Q is filed. I am going with Grok info for now.
Issue for this company is the warrant overhang; grok says with warrant exposure share count could be as high as 750-820M. That's a lot of overhang.
So I have updated my model to the actual shares on 1 line excluding warrants, and then a second line with the lower bound of warrants included. We might be light on the 469M shares as we don't have the 10Q.
I was at $425M for 2026 as my estimate of revenue in March but thinking with acquisitions that will go higher. The company has now moved to $390M (2 major acquisitions helped). I am still moving my numbers up because I am sure there will be more acquisitions before it is all said and done. So I am up to $475M from $425M.
The good news is finally $ONDS on the non diluted share count is "fair value" at ~12x forward sales IF my $475M is hit for the year. The bad news is its still very pricey if you include all the warrant exposure.
12x forward sales is my marker for fast growing companies, the market can deem a company worth 30x or 7x. $CBRS for example right now is at some ludicrous valuation that makes no sense. So keep that in mind.
Big picture - this stagnation in PPS for months has helped the company 'grow' into its valuation; one that didn't make much sense last Oct/Nov. Now a half year later - at the cost of the stock flat since mid Oct - things are becoming more reasonable.
Fund.Drone.DefenseTech.Photonics $LPTH $UMAC 🐋@fundmyfund
New financial model $ONDS ---I am going to $425M for 26 🎯 That will probably still be low by the time we get to end of year as probably another 8 acquisitions by then. Share count is the most difficult thing with all the warrant exposure and financial maneuvering. I am going with what someone posted from an analyst report 2 months ago. If that is accurate this is the FIRST time $ONDS forward price to sales has EVER been below 12 since I found it Jan 2025. 🙏 If someone has an analyst report next few days with updated share count, please tag me. Last I saw was mid 400Ms.
English
@YoYInvestor Great post. The diluitionistas are either the (1) dumbest mofo’s around (2) shorts playing games they will lose or (3) bitter longs who didn’t know what they were buying and lashing out like cry babies they are
English
$ONDS I KEEP COMING BACK TO THE FACTS - THIS STOCK IS TOO CHEAP 🤷♂️
At $9.25, Ondas trades at a $4.53B market cap with $1.4B in cash on the balance sheet.
Strip that out and investors are paying $3.13B in enterprise value for the actual business.
That enterprise value buys U.S. prime contractor status, $457M in pro forma contracted backlog, active global military relationships, a $PLTR partnership with programs already being co-pursued, a vetted pipeline of 25 acquisition targets representing $500M in potential 2026 revenue, and a robust, dual-use platform that checks every box that competitors can’t.
The bear case is structurally undermined by $1.4B in liquidity and no meaningful long term debt.
The dilution narrative is the primary concern holding this stock back.
It deserves a direct response.
Revenue has done a 7x while share issuance has done a 4x.
The model is deliberate: acquire fragmented, undervalued defense tech companies with real revenues, real contracts, and real pipelines at pre-scale valuations, then plug them into the Ondas platform to accelerate their growth.
Each acquisition brings more value than the dilution it creates.
Acquirees accept equity because they want upside participation in what Ondas is building, a clear signal of conviction from inside the ecosystem.
The right question is not how much dilution is occurring, it is how many times management can execute this playbook.
Every successful iteration increases revenue per share and expands the path to earnings per share as operating leverage compounds.
Your percentage ownership declines modestly while the absolute value of your position increases materially.
That distinction is the entire thesis.
The drone and autonomous systems sector is deeply fragmented and sub-scale.
Ondas has the capital, the platform, the partnerships, and the proven playbook to consolidate it.
That opportunity does not come around often. As @CeoOndas has described, these markets only organize once.
The numbers support this.
Organic backlog tripled from $68M to $177M in a single quarter before Mistral closed.
Mistral added $264M and has captured programs exceeding $1B in value.
Management guides to at least $375M in 2026, a sevenfold revenue increase YoY, using floor language that signals internal visibility well above the stated number.
Oppenheimer models revenue at $825M for 2027.
Management has strong visibility into $1.5B by 2030.
Operating leverage compounds everything.
The $53M cash operating cost base does not need to grow proportionally as revenue scales toward $375M, $825M and beyond.
EBITDA profitability timelines are specific: product companies in Q3 2026, OAS in Q3 2027, Ondas consolidated in Q1 2028.
At $1.5B revenue with 30% EBITDA margins, EBITDA reaches $450M.
On $2.92B enterprise value, that is 6.5x forward EV to EBITDA for a Palantir-backed platform actively consolidating a fragmented industry.
Catalysts are stacked.
May 14th earnings into 33% short interest with 1.6 days to cover.
FIFA World Cup C-UAS deployment June 12th.
Russell 2000 inclusion anticipated in 2026.
The proposed DAWG budget grows from $225M to $54.6B in FY27 and Ondas sits across every layer of that opportunity.
Retail sentiment is at all-time lows.
The dilution fear is being applied to a company where revenue is outpacing share issuance nearly 2 to 1 and the playbook is just getting started.
Your percentage of the pie gets smaller, but the absolute value of your slice gets meaningfully bigger.
That is what the market is missing.
6 months from now, sub-$10 prices will look ridiculous.
English
If you’re long and scream dilution and mgmt sucks then you haven’t paid attention to the strategy. Clearly laid out for all to see. That’s on you. Move on it you don’t agree w what they’re doing
English
$onds the dilutionistas control the narrative. FOR NOW. But if you buy a biz worth $5 for $1 isn’t that accretion?? Share or no shares. Bot world view for $150 mm. CEO thinks it’s worth >$4 B. Isn’t that accretion? Betcha EB gonna hammer home that point next week
English
@IngJuanPa7 The pro forma 2025 revs were $95 mm. That includes acquisitions from the fourth qtr. that’s the run rate that’s relevant. And when reported Q4 they said the original $170-180 guide for 26 was too low. So the organic growth of those units is north of 100%
English
Eric Brock CEO de Ondas Inc $ONDS publica su carta anual a accionistas (4 may 2026).
Los titulares son sólidos: backlog $457M, guidance ≥$375M reiterado, caja >$1.4B al 31 mar. Pero la señal analítica más importante del documento no es el backlog ni el revenue. Es la propuesta de ampliar las acciones autorizadas de 800M a 1.2B.
El estado actual del capital es revelador: >50% de las 800M acciones ya están emitidas y en circulación. Un 25% adicional está reservado para warrants con strikes de $20 y $28. Eso deja menos del 25% del total autorizado disponible para nuevas emisiones — y Brock lo dice sin rodeos: ese margen no es suficiente para ejecutar su pipeline M&A.
¿Qué pipeline? 25+ oportunidades activas, muchas en estadios avanzados, con un run rate combinado potencial de $500M en revenue 2026. En lo que va del año ya se han cerrado 5 adquisiciones por $557M en valor agregado. El ritmo no va a bajar.
El puente de revenue es el otro dato que nadie está desglosando. Las 5 adquisiciones cerradas en 2026 aportarán ~$230M de los $375M guiados. Eso implica que el componente orgánico + legacy debe generar ~$145M adicionales — una cifra que supera el revenue total de FY2025 ($50.7M). La carta no lo dice explícitamente. Esa omisión en un documento proxy es, por sí sola, una laguna que el Q1 earnings del ~14 de mayo deberá cerrar.
La caja de $1.4B (no auditada, 31 mar) confirma que el riesgo de liquidez no es el problema inmediato. El burn implícito de ~$150M en 90 días refleja el despliegue activo en M&A, no deterioro operativo.
Lectura: la carta es una pieza de solicitud de proxy bien construida. El objetivo real es conseguir votos para 400M acciones autorizadas adicionales. La estrategia es legítima y consistente con el modelo de crecimiento inorgánico que Brock ha ejecutado. Pero para el accionista existente, votar sí el 28 de mayo es aceptar que la dilución estructural seguirá siendo el coste del crecimiento.
La tesis no cambia. El catalizador decisivo sigue siendo el Q1 10-Q y earnings call (~14 may): desglose de revenue por segmento, gross margin post-adquisiciones y burn rate real de caja.
Largo en $ONDS. No es recomendación de inversión. DYOR.
Ondas Inc.@OndasHoldings
Ondas is executing a Core + Strategic Growth plan to build a scaled, multi-domain autonomous systems platform across air, ground, and stratosphere. With a growing backlog, strong balance sheet, and accelerating global demand, the focus is now on scaling execution and delivering long-term value. @CeoOndas Eric Brock outlines the path in our recent stockholders letter. $ONDS d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/ondas/media/e6…
Español
@gabz_investing The $457 mm figure is pro forma as of March 31. Since then they have announced $78 mm more orders
English
4 months ago, $ONDS had $68M in backlog.
They were a small-cap wireless name most people couldn't spell.
Then they bought World View. Then BIRD Aerosystems. Then Rotron Aerospace. Then they partnered with Palantir. Then they launched ONBERG in Germany for the Ukraine theater. Then Sentrycs got the 2026 FIFA World Cup counter-drone deal.
Today they closed Mistral — giving them direct U.S. Army and SOCOM prime contractor status.
Backlog: $457M. Up 6.7x in 4 months.
The stock is down today.
The business isn't.
Not financial advice. Always DYOR.
Ondas Inc.@OndasHoldings
Ondas completed its merger with Mistral which increases Ondas backlog to $457 million while establishing direct access to U.S. defense contract vehicles, including U.S. Army and Special Operations programs. The merger also introduces a dedicated program capture capability to support long-term growth across defense and homeland security markets while enabling scaled deployment of autonomous systems. $ONDS ondas.com/post/ondas-com…
English
$ONDS will be bigger than most can imagine currently . Defense has been, and will continue to drive current multiples, but the massive, untapped multiplier is a dual-use strategy for the civilian sector.
For the (inevitable) massive civilian expansion to work, the lower skies need a digital traffic controller. I expect RemoteID to become a legal mandate, for which Ondas is the major architect (@CeoOndas knows this area well..). Think of it as the digital traffic controller for everything under 400ft.
You need constant ISR. So whether it be through the World View acquisition with $PLTR partnership or the Optimus system, Ondas is bridging the gap between tactical drone and stratospheric data collection for better C2. We’re taking always on 24/7 layered surveillance that very very few can provide.
You gotta protect critical infrastructure. This in particular is a massive dual use multiplier. The same tech used at borders for CUAS, or say even the same tech used on current demining projects, will be deployed to protect rail, utilities, oil/gas, civilian centers, and yes, data centers. Insane amount of potential here, use case is dozens and dozens, all of which will make their way through roadmaps.
And you cannot have autonomy at scale, especially across domains, without bulletproof comms. FullMax can provide wide area broadband that commercial BVLOS requires. And yes, we have the deep OTM call option that will print on the rail rail. This is a deep moat.
I see a lot of people comparing Ondas to others in the market recently. The market is going to be big enough for many winners who will be multiples higher, no doubt. But there is not someone better suited with a force multiplier than the dual-use systems of systems $ONDS is building.
And always remember, money will follow the network. It will begin to make a lot of sense.
Eric Brock@CeoOndas
The defense tech sector will create a massive amount of market cap in the next 3-5 years. The simple math below is evidence that the cycle has just started. Some giant companies will be built around unmanned and autonomous systems.
English
@BMSInvests World view is a massively accretive acquisition. $150 mm price is a steal. Worth many Bs down road. If this is dilution please give me more of this. Accretion accretion accretion
English
$ONDS
To confirm:
$ONDS paid up to 12,775,219 shares of common stock + ~$7.3M in cash for World View.
This was the full agreed purchase price - no more, no less.
The Form D filed today (the one with exactly 12,775,219 shares) is just confirmation paperwork of the shares being issued for the purchase.
It does NOT add any new shares or increase the total price paid for World View. It’s standard housekeeping after a stock-based acquisition.
Key reminders:
• This is dilution (~2.6% based on ~482M shares outstanding) and will eventually add to the float once resale registrations allow selling.
• Separate from this: ~4.05M shares under a Form S-8 for employee RSUs/options granted to 26 new World View team members as compensation (not part of the purchase price).
Bottom line:
The 12,775,219 shares were already baked into the original April 1 closing filings. The Form D simply confirms they’ve now been formally issued as the non-cash portion of the deal.
BMSInvests@BMSInvests
$ONDS just filed a Form D for a private placement tied to its acquisition of World View Enterprises - issuing up to 12,775,219 new shares of common stock. No cash raised so far. First sale date: April 1, 2026. Sold to 232 accredited investors only. Adding ~12.8M shares = roughly 2.6–2.7% dilution. They start as restricted securities. Once any lock-up periods end and/or Ondas files a resale registration (which they’ve done for portions of World View shares already), the new shares become freely tradable and add directly to the public float. ir.ondas.com/sec-filings-em…
English
@YoYInvestor Bingo. The level of outright stupidity of those yelling dilution dilution dilution is incredible. It’s all about what did they buy with the added shares and what are those companies worth as part of ONDS.
Ie World view is worth >$4 B according to EB. They paid $150 mm…
English
$ONDS I can’t believe I have to explain such simple concepts on here, but here I am. This individual’s math is correct, but the story they’re telling is incomplete. This is just a lack of sophistication.
“Loyal 2020 holders have endured 23x share dilution.”
Accurate. What’s missing from this observation is what those shares actually purchased. The 2020 Ondas was a pre-revenue wireless network company with no defense contracts, no autonomous systems, and no clear path to institutional relevance.
You weren’t diluted out of a great company, you were diluted through the transformation into one.
The share count grew 23x. In return, shareholders received assets worth orders of magnitude more. Present the full picture or don’t present it at all.
“Equity ownership is down 95.9% since 2020.”
Mathematically correct, analytically incomplete. Percentage ownership is only meaningful when the underlying asset value stays the same. It didn’t. You own 4.1% of something worth way more than 100% of what existed in 2020. Measuring the size of your slice while ignoring the growth of the pizza isn’t analysis. It’s cherry picking.
“Higher market cap kills stock momentum.”
The numbers don’t support this. Here’s what actually happened.
2024: ~70M shares at $2 = ~$140M MC
Today: ~481M shares at $9.50 = ~$4.5B MC
Shares grew 6.8x, but MC grew 32x.
Price went up 4.75x despite the dilution. Market cap expands through both price appreciation and share count growth. These are not opposing forces. A larger company built through accretive acquisitions commands a higher price per share.
The warrant structure makes institutional conviction clear. 196M warrants at $20 and $28 strike prices represent a $1B investor’s judgment that this stock reaches levels 120% to 210% above today.
“Future outsized returns become less and less likely.”
Only when dilution outpaces growth. In 2025 it didn’t. Revenue grew 7x while shares grew 4.7x. Revenue per share expanded. If 2026 guidance of $375M is achieved against roughly 500M shares, revenue per share hits $0.75 vs. $0.15 in 2024. That’s not erosion. That’s expansion.
“Negative compounding of ownership — shares growing on shares.”
Negative compounding is genuinely destructive under the right conditions. Those conditions require the underlying asset pool to remain the same while ownership units multiply. That’s the model where compounding works in reverse, but that’s not what happened here.
Every share issuance deposited a new operating business into the asset pool. Yes, your proportional claim contracted. But the pool itself grew substantially each time. The question isn’t whether your percentage shrank. The question is whether the absolute value of your position increased.
2024: $7.2M revenue / 70M shares = $0.10 per share
2025: $50.7M revenue / 329M shares = $0.15 per share
2026 guide: $375M / ~500M shares = $0.75 per share
That’s not negative compounding. That’s the opposite.
“Claiming dilution is accretive is moronic.”
Dilution is accretive when the value of assets acquired exceeds the value of shares issued. That’s not a controversial position, it’s a fact.
It would be great if people who don’t understand this business would get off their soap box and do more research.
Weary Centurion@weary_centurion
$ONDS DILUTION EXPLAINED 🚩 Further to the below post which claims: “Are you really being “diluted” as an investor if you own less of the company than you used to, but each share is now worth more way more?” Here is how much investors have been diluted since IPO: SHARE COUNT (year end) 2020 - 20M 2021 - 34M 2022 - 42M 2023 - 53M 2024 - 70M 2025 - 329M 2026 - 481M (so far) Loyal investors who have held since 2020 have endured a 2,300 increase in shares or an increase of 23x 14x since 2022 9x since 2023 6.8x since 2024 1.4x since 2025 (so far) If they fill all authorised shares to 1.2B that will be 6000% dilution since IPO or 60x more shares EQUITY EROSION Example: An investor in 2020 bought shares representing 100% of their equity ownership at the time Here is how much of that 100% equity they retain as time goes on: 2021 - 58.8% 2022 - 47.6% 2023 - 37.7% 2024 - 28.4% 2025 - 6.1% 2026 - 4.1% Full capacity shares - 1.7% Currently, loyal shareholders holding since 2020 have had their equity ownership trashed by 95.9% Yes the share price might be marginally higher than IPO (for now) But for every extra share, that means: - Higher market cap - Kills more stock momentum - Valuation increases by stealth - More growth required to offset Even if the growth does offset the dilution, this does not change the trajectory of your returns It is like compound interest in reverse Instead of money growing on money Shares are growing on shares The official term is “Negative Compounding of Ownership” In simple terms, in a normal savings account, your balance grows by a percentage each year In a dilutive stock, the total share pool grows by a percentage, which exponentially shrinks the "weight" of each original share It’s not just that they are adding shares, they are adding shares on top of a dramatically overinflated share count In 2021 a 70% increase added 14M shares But in 2025, a 70% increase added 259M shares This is why when people claim “last time they doubled the share count the stock doubled”, it does not mean the same will happen again Each new round of dilution compounds erosion of share ownership overtime, making future outsized returns less and less likely THE PIZZA IS GROWING BUT YOUR SLICE IS SHREDDING Because the share count has grown 24x since IPO, the company’s total value had to grow 24x just for your single IPO share to remain worth exactly $6.00 This is not sustainable for future returns So whilst it may be true that the companies growth outpaces dilution in the near term, this becomes more and more difficult over time The same is true for the likes of $IREN who just announced a $6B fresh ATM I see the same justification on every stock like this. It’s always the same People experience a rapid increase in share price over a short period of time and expect it to continue indefinitely The reason I keep highlighting these stocks is because most people don’t even properly understand what dilution is Some of the most popular accounts on here are posting false info continuously Claiming dilution is somehow “accretive” is just one example I hope I have explained why that statement is so moronic I am not telling anyone what to do, just raising concerns and posting information (for free). I earn no money from X and have no position in $ONDS Not financial advice
English
@jamieinvests @OndasHoldings @CeoOndas Great interview. Highlight to me was comment that world view is worth at least our current mrk cap. Wow. Just wow
Plus every deal has been MASSIVELY ACCRETIVE
English
sat down with @OndasHoldings CEO @CeoOndas .
We covered 2026 strategy, growth, acquisitions, Palantir & where the business is heading.
This is the second interview we have done &
A lot of value in this one 👇
$ONDS
youtu.be/XO0M6iyhigQ
YouTube
English