@BokehResearch Look at NG vs TTF or TI vs Brent and think about how energy prices would be different if we were still importing both.
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John Arnold
9.7K posts
John Arnold
@johnarnold
Co-chair of Arnold Ventures. Reality is more nuanced than the headline.
Houston Katılım Ekim 2013
460 Takip Edilen116.5K Takipçiler
@johnarnold It only lowers the economic risk if you're willing to ban exports, which would alienate the world. And, that would crush your trade partners, which would have all sorts of negative economic consequences. 40% of large cap revenue is from overseas. This is not a very solid argument
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The conventional wisdom in the 2010s was that energy independence would reduce US military involvement in the Middle East. In practice, high domestic production lowered the economic risks of disruption, making actions like a strike on Iran viable.
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@AmrikanDesiAnon I don’t think the calculus on an equation would have been very different had we still been an energy importer
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@johnarnold John there can't be that many more people alive who know more than you about the Oil & Gas markets. Do you believe these markets are good at pricing in geopolitical shocks? If so then the current price level for Brent and Dutch Natural Gas futures suggests they expect
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@techsportsmark much of investing has similar characteristics to gambling: day trading, zero day options, meme stocks, etc.
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@johnarnold How is this any different than having leverage trading available on your phone via Robinhood???
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The Atlantic has a sobering, first-person look at the ramifications of legalized online sports betting. Here are a few of the more telling passages.
1/5
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@ScottW_Grizzle I can't comment on the specifics of this example, but the regulated rate of return model does incentivize larger capex by utilities. PUCs exist, in part, to provide a counterweight to this incentive.
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.@johnarnold This is rational behavior with current incentives correct? More expensive the infrastructure, higher the rate base and earnings?
Energy Empire Podcast@EnergyEmpirePod
Duke Energy has 7,200 MW of utility solar with zero batteries. Hyperscalers offered to install batteries at every site — which would lower rates for everyone. Duke passed. Now they want a 15% rate hike.
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@AudeIdScire that's an argument for allocating the money while living rather than giving others the decision making authority after death.
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@johnarnold What makes those charities "good" is that they are effective in pursuing their goals (unlike most charities, which are bad at that)
It doesn't mean that their goals are aligned with his values. It also doesn't mean they can be trusted to remain aligned (Rockefeller, Ford, etc)
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There is nothing that billions could do to your kids that would be as harmful for society as donating to bad charities
John Arnold@johnarnold
I understand and agree with many criticisms of philanthropy. But practically, fortunes have to go somewhere. There are only 3 options: philanthropy, heirs & govt. If not nonprofits, is Peter Thiel's plan to give $10B+/child? I'm more skeptical of that than he is of philanthropy.
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@matthewstoller Over time I've come to judge people more on whether they intellectually consistent rather than does their framework align with mine, so I'll take that as a complement.
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@johnarnold I disagree with a lot of your framework but unlike most of the superrich you are intellectually consistent. Stop confusing me!
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Many ultra-wealthy Americans are philanthropically inclined, do not want a large foundation staff, do want to give while living, and haven't been inspired by existing nonprofits. This American version of “GiveDirectly” could be an ideal solution.
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@HettyGreen2020 What do you think foundation do with their endowments?
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@johnarnold Who cares? They'll have a diversified portfolio and let it just grow. Or they spend it and the receiving business gets to spend the money.
Government and charities are the type that spend $3m to build a small apartment. Waste and corruption.
No comparison.
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I understand and agree with many criticisms of philanthropy. But practically, fortunes have to go somewhere. There are only 3 options: philanthropy, heirs & govt. If not nonprofits, is Peter Thiel's plan to give $10B+/child? I'm more skeptical of that than he is of philanthropy.
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@OnyxAurelius It'd be interesting model but I've never seen someone leave very large sums to a non-relative w/o restrictions. It's rare but people have left it to broader groups like their employees. Perhaps some will use their estate to fund Trump accounts in the future. I like that idea.
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@johnarnold John - Thiel wants to justify giving it to designated heirs. People who will continue the ideological mission. Don’t be surprised if say Musk just “gifts” someone like Stephen Miller USD 1 billion in spacex stock or cash, similar to how Bezos gifted USD 100 million to Van Jones.
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@FixedIncQuant no. Even at the annual get-together they are very strict about any solicitation. People are invited to share what they are doing but are not allowed to solicit others.
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@johnarnold Does the Giving Pledge commit them to giving it away to specific institutions chosen by the Giving Pledge group ?
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@HamptonPrezcott Many wealthy people spend money to estate plan in order to minimize the estate tax. It's indicative that most desire to minimize the amount going to the govt.
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@johnarnold Unless you count the estate tax, of course…
I do think billionaires should take a note from their Gilded Age predecessors and leave behind museums, libraries and grand architecture for the public to enjoy. Much better ROI on preserving a legacy and leaving behind a better world
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I’ve done a 180 on this topic. I used to think that billionaire philanthropy was preferable to government action, but given how much *worse* it has made so many things in the last 10 years (including municipal governance), hard to defend any bit of the status quo/deflection.
John Arnold@johnarnold
I understand and agree with many criticisms of philanthropy. But practically, fortunes have to go somewhere. There are only 3 options: philanthropy, heirs & govt. If not nonprofits, is Peter Thiel's plan to give $10B+/child? I'm more skeptical of that than he is of philanthropy.
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@davidgobaud @altcap @elonmusk I agree with this and think it's an interesting new option. Technically it's philanthropy though.
x.com/johnarnold/sta…
John Arnold@johnarnold
Many ultra-wealthy Americans are philanthropically inclined, do not want a large foundation staff, do want to give while living, and haven't been inspired by existing nonprofits. This American version of “GiveDirectly” could be an ideal solution.
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Actually now there's a fourth and best option if you don't trust your heirs thanks to @altcap - give it to Trump accounts!
And government is infinitely better than Bill Gates' dei communist nonprofits because the government will at worst waste it.
@elonmusk unsign the giving pledge asap do you want your money going to Bill Gates nonprofits?! 🤣
John Arnold@johnarnold
I understand and agree with many criticisms of philanthropy. But practically, fortunes have to go somewhere. There are only 3 options: philanthropy, heirs & govt. If not nonprofits, is Peter Thiel's plan to give $10B+/child? I'm more skeptical of that than he is of philanthropy.
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@TheFoolishPig Imagine giving your kids so much money that their work and success in life is completely meaningless to their standard of living. For some it wouldn’t change anything but it will for may.
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@johnarnold Why not? Your children is nearly always people that you poured considerable effort into shaping and aligning, and far more reliable than any nonprofit.
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@HettyGreen2020 Thiel is one of the best allocators of capital ever. Will his kids be? Will they even be above average?
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@johnarnold $1 of investment from a Thiel heir or from me is the same $1.
Best to put it toward productive use, in the private economy. Dont interrupt compounding.
Politicians and charity bureaucrats have non-productive interests.
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@johnarnold It's the recipients that are the problem.
Practically all of it ends up with left and far-left entities.
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@ProtagorasTO how do you do that after you die? someone has to have ownership of the investments.
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@johnarnold Isn’t he implying it should go to for profits?
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