John Robb

The Global Guerillas Report Frameworks for understanding and anticipating events in warfare, politics, and technology. Substack (report): johnrobb.substack.com Patreon (report + discord + free form workspace): patreon.com/johnrobb

Openclaw is the start of autonomous social AIs I've been writing about for years. It's a good sign that it is; open source (fastest adoption rate of any software), runs on your PC (it's paired with you), treats the big AI models as commodities, and orients itself based on the human on the loop.

Writing. Drone deterrence.

Hidden cost; >3k ships are trapped in the Persian gulf doing nothing (5% of the total global fleet and 50% of all LNG tankers). Daily damage with minimal effort/expense. The ROI from this effect alone is very high. Networked systems disruption can amply the effectiveness of drone attacks by up to a million to one.

The first rule of drone deterrence is decentralization.

"Butterfly effects?" Networked systems disruption generating cascades of failure that sweep across interconnected networks.

Iran's conventional military power (airforce and navy) matter little in this war. So destroying them doesn't do much. What matters is a decentralized multitude of drones (UAVs, USVs, and UUVs) and missiles in close proximity to globally critical networked systems.

@romuloXcordova @MoisesNaim Moises is great. We used to correspond years ago.

@johnrobb Isn't this the same premise from @MoisesNaim's "The End of Power"?

Brave New War (2007) Premise: Rapidly advancing, relatively inexpensive, and globally available technology will offer small groups (terrorists -> small states) extreme leverage in warfare. To maximize leverage these groups will focus on disrupting networked systems (max ROI). Decentralized use of this technology maximizes survivability. This development will unwind globalization by disrupting the networked systems that it relies upon.

@stephwakefield_ They willfully didn't adapt. I wrote about it when working for the Chairman of the JCS in 2016, and the pushback was intense.

@johnrobb Do you think American military has not adapted and is therefore outmatched?

@LaymanGeopol Boydian orientation.

Siri Island looks great this time of year. Siri and Abu Musa have made a beautiful pair on the chart for years (IYKYK). It's a package deal.

@vtchakarova Kharg is too much. Abu Musa.

And then what?

@zenpundit Thanks my friend.

Abu Musa

The report explains how improvements in drone autonomy will change how wars are fought -- shifting from attrition to maneuver. johnrobb.substack.com/p/the-automate…

Report; The Automated Killing Fields (March 20, 2024) Attrition warfare is back with a vengeance.

Here's the report; johnrobb.substack.com/p/a-contested-…

Global Guerrillas Report; A Contested World (May 17, 2024) "Small states and insurgent movements are rapidly finding new ways to use autonomous weapons to disrupt global commerce. Here's how it can all go wrong."

@zenpundit @MartinSkold2 The case for paired autonomy.