John Rothe, CMT

30 years on Wall Street | Chartered Market Technician | Founder & Portfolio Manager ARTAIS Capital Multiple times a week, I publish institutional-grade market analysis on my Substack. Macro regimes, sector rotations, and the technical signals that inform our investment process. It’s free to subscribe: johnrothe.com/welcome

Financials have not participated in the recent market rally and are continuing to show signs of weakening upside momentum. This may be an indication that investors are still worried about Private Equity and the impact a failure will have on the entire sector.

Latest research note just posted on Substack --> johnrothe.com/p/inflation-ju…

AMD...

The topic I have not seen discussed much - Is this just a liquidity event for AI investors? Eventually, AI models will likely converge and all be similar. This strips away value (no product differentiation)

Semiconductor stocks are starting to look a bit too extended here:

Bearish Divergence forming - S&P 500 Index…

$NVDA is back into its sideways trading pattern. This is a failed breakout:

$AAPL moving into overhead resistance:

$NVDA - Less than enthusiastic breakout, followed by a reversal. Not what you want to see from the largest name in the S&P 500:

I’ve been seeing lots of excitement over the recent performance within the Semiconductor Sector, including $NVDA hitting new all-time highs. However, the sector looks overbought and exhausted. The RRG chart is showing continued loss of upside momentum in both the broader tech sector and the semiconductor space:

Being an index investor is no longer about simple diversification. If you are “buy and holding” the S&P 500, you are making a big bet on Tech. More specifically, a big bet on just 10 companies.

"Fewer and Fewer Stocks Are Holding This Market Up" Latest research note --> johnrothe.com/p/fewer-and-fe…

Institutional investors are rebuilding their equity exposure: The NAAIM Exposure Index has jumped +19 points over the last 4 weeks, to 79, the highest since mid-February. This index measures average US equity exposure reported by members of the National Association of Active Investment Managers, making it a key indicator of professional investor positioning. At the same time, hedge fund net leverage has risen +8 percentage points to 77%, the highest since early March. This metric shows the amount that hedge funds are betting on the market going up versus down, with higher readings indicating more aggressive positioning. Both metrics remain well below their December 2025 peaks, suggesting the positioning rebuild is not yet complete. Institutional equity exposure is quickly recovering.

Rotation is starting to slow down. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pause and retest of the 7000 level on the S&P 500 Index:

Looks like my fellow NAAIM members have been buying

The Tech sector continues to show momentum and relative strength improvement. Given tech’s large representation in the S&P 500, this rotation can help the broader market continue to rise.

Thank for including this in today’s Chart Report @TheChartReport 👊👊👊

@Optuma Thank you!

@JohnRothe Hi John, here's an example of $NVDA with increasing price and volume. Download a workbook with examples from here: forum.optuma.com/t/x-twitter-ch…

$XLK is up 16% since the March 30th low, but volume has been lacklustre. This is visualised on a scatter plot on the right (known as a Crocker Chart) which plots the 5 day average volume against the 5 day average price:

I go into detail in my latest research note: johnrothe.com/p/is-the-marke…

Rising costs are a big concern among voters and the market is looking past Iran. Why? Because the market may have found its most unlikely source of stability: a President who needs gas prices to be lower before November.