Ed Suh@edsuh
One of the greatest philosophical questions in venture is whether the number of potentially successful founders is capped.
The consensus view is it is. There’s a rule of thumb that only a small handful of venture backed companies each year will become multi billion $ exits. Numbers between 5-10 globally are routinely thrown around. History suggests that’s not too far off: mega exits have been rare throughout the years.
If the number of successful founders is indeed capped, then VC is a zero sum game, not positive sum. There are a small fixed number of great outcomes per vintage, and a fixed amount of ownership to be allocated. Practically every venture firm today is in a free for all to find and secure as much as they can in the small handful of companies that look like they could be in that set.
Yet there are over 8 billion people on planet Earth, with over 130 million new births each year. It’s hard to believe only 5-10 of them each year have the potential to be successful startup founders.
It’s possible, probable, that despite how much the VC industry has scaled and industrialized, it is still highly inefficient. There is tremendous leakage. Amazing potential founders with incredible raw abilities, in many cases with legitimate product traction, who simply by circumstance, aren’t afforded the one break that could have put them on the path to greatness: securing an early funding round. Without that break, many die prematurely or are forced to exit early, like an athlete with the best genetics that is malnourished or untrained, never reaching their potential.
Perhaps they aren’t in SF or NYC or London, they’re in a non traditional geo. Perhaps they didn’t go to a name brand school or work at a name brand company. Perhaps they don’t know any VCs, or don’t even know what VC is. Perhaps they aren’t active on X, or even have an account. They would never be highlighted in a Harmonic screen or think of applying to YC. They are invisible to the VC industrial complex. But some are world class visionaries and product builders, doing what they can with what little they have.
Traditional VC isn’t architected to find, select, fund, and support these kinds of people. Not to mention it’s antithetical to the culture of mainstream VC, a culture that so strongly associates one’s worth with one’s network. Many would argue it’s not worth it. But simple math would suggest that within an enormous population of people who aren’t adequately evaluated, there should exist many hidden gems. The VCs who are willing to do the work, take the risk, and have some kind of edge in finding these hidden gems, stand to build some incredible portfolios.