JT X retweetledi

I’m even more bullish on $HOOD
HOOD -7% on a 47% crypto revenue collapse. The bear take is obvious.
Here’s why it’s actually bullish.
Crypto revenue fell to $134M, down 47% YoY.
Stock got punished.
Story over, right?
Look at what replaced it…
→ Event contracts revenue up 320% YoY to $147M, a record 8.8B contracts traded
→ Equities revenue +46%, options +8%
→ Total transaction revenue still grew despite crypto getting cut nearly in half
The thesis was always that HOOD was a levered bet on crypto cycles.
Q1 just proved the opposite.
They absorbed a 47% hit to one of their biggest revenue lines and transaction revenue still went up.
That’s not a crypto company anymore.
That’s a diversified retail platform where prediction markets, options, and equities can carry the quarter when digital assets roll over.
The market is pricing this like crypto weakness = HOOD weakness.
But the correlation is breaking in real time.
Subscription services and prediction markets are stepping into the lead role.
Tenev’s still investing in crypto infrastructure for the next cycle, so you get the diversification plus the optionality when crypto comes back.
Bear case… cyclical business missed estimates.
Bull case… this was the stress test, and the new revenue mix passed it.
Ima buyer of the post earnings de-rating.

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