Judee Sill
3.2K posts
I believe there’s a strong likelihood that Trump, if elected, could end the Ukraine-Russia war before his term even begins. In contrast, if Harris were elected, there’s a significant chance the war would not only continue but possibly escalate, potentially drawing in more countries.
While the Ukraine-Russia conflict is not the sole issue in this election, it is undeniably one of great importance, with profound implications for global stability and U.S. foreign policy.
Trump’s Strategy to End the War
Trump’s approach to ending the war would likely focus on actions aimed at altering the current incentive structure. First, Trump could pressure Ukraine to formally abandon its aspirations to join NATO. He could make it clear to Zelensky that without this concession, U.S. funding for Ukraine’s defense would end. This would fundamentally shift the dynamic by forcing Ukraine to reconsider its priorities. At the same time, Trump could offer Ukraine a “carrot”—substantial funds for post-war rebuilding, as a way to soften the blow and incentivize negotiations. Further, in exchange for Ukraine abandoning its NATO ambitions, it would receive international security guarantees to protect against potential future Russian aggression.
Next, Trump would likely convince Putin that a non-NATO Ukraine is the best deal he can hope for. Putin, having sought assurances against NATO expansion for years, could see this as a victory and a reason to de-escalate. In this context, Trump would negotiate a border settlement, pushing both sides to make some concessions but ensuring that the main focus—Ukrainian neutrality—would be locked in.
Harris and the Risk of Escalation
On the other hand, Harris would likely continue the Biden administration’s strategy of funding Ukraine’s military and hoping that prolonged support will eventually bring an end to the war. However, this approach risks perpetuating the conflict indefinitely. As long as the U.S. continues to supply military aid, Putin will see this as direct U.S. aggression against Russia, further solidifying his resolve to keep fighting. In turn, Ukraine’s reliance on U.S. military aid and the lingering hope of eventual NATO membership will keep fueling its resistance.
Without a fundamental shift in this dynamic, the war could drag on for years, bleeding both nations and possibly escalating to involve neighboring countries. U.S. policymakers seem to be overlooking that this war cannot be won by either side militarily without catastrophic consequences. What’s missing from the Biden-Harris approach is the recognition that this war can be negotiated to an end—and the U.S. has the leverage to make that happen.
The Path to Negotiation
Contrary to the current administration’s reluctance to fully commit to diplomatic resolution, I believe the Ukraine-Russia war is one that can and should be negotiated to a close. While some wars are indeed beyond negotiation, this is not one of them. The U.S. is in a unique position to pressure both sides into compromise, especially if it’s willing to use its economic and military aid as bargaining chips.
It’s crucial to recognize that continuing to support Ukraine militarily without a clear endgame only prolongs the suffering and risks an even larger conflict. Under a Trump administration, we would likely see a more assertive push for negotiations—using hard leverage, but ultimately driving toward peace. In contrast, under Harris, the war might well become a quagmire, with no end in sight and greater risks of escalation.
In summary, while the outcome of the Ukraine-Russia war is far from the only issue in this election, it is a significant one. Trump’s strategy offers the best chance for a swift resolution, while Harris’ continuation of current policies may allow the conflict to spiral into something far more dangerous.
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@boolusilan I have predicted tesla correctly 3 times.
1. After the trump election, it went up.
2. Not too long after inauguration, it went down.
3. It will behave seemingly randomly, but go up in the long run.
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$TSLA is difficult to predict. Does anyone know what happened?
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@mayadavid001 @AydenMMiller Yes, I do. That’s a very late prediction to hit $5 trillion. It’s not worth declaring it if it could be another ten years. Open AI will have reached a $5 trillion valuation well before the close of 2028.
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@judeesill @AydenMMiller Tesla could hit $5T by 2032–2035 if growth continues in AI, energy, and robotics. Btw do you hold $TSLA..?
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$TSLA will be the first $5 Trillion dollar company on EARTH.
AI/Robotics are the future!
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@heydave7 Good thing he’s not brainwashed on a daily basis in his household.
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Even my 10 year old son sees the demise of Uber. A couple days ago we were watching the NBA playoffs on TV and an Uber commercial came up. My son says, “Dad, once Tesla comes out with their Robotaxi thing Uber is dead.” 😂
Gary Black@garyblack00
$UBER +40% YTD as investors have concluded UBER benefits most as America transitions from ride hailing with drivers to ride hailing without drivers. In the U.S., UBER + Lyft ride hailing gross bookings were approx $100 billion in 2024. UBER has a chart on their website that shows vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increasing 5x if the cost of ride-hailing drops from $2/mile to $1/mile. Even if we assume elasticity of demand for ride hailing is closer to -1.5x, so that ride hailing demand increases 1.5x (i.e. 75%) for a 50% reduction in ride hailing cost, UBER ride hailing bookings and EBITDA could grow 75% and UBER stock could increase 75% if ride hailing costs drop by 50%.
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@brianmctaggart Lane was going to pitch relief if needed if Chris Burke hadn’t hit the home run in the NLCS against the Braves.
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This is the first time since April 22, 2005, that the Astros have had an all-right-handed lineup against a right-handed starting pitcher. That was a game against Jason Marquis of the Cardinals. Batting cleanup that day was Jason Lane, who's the Brewers' 3B coach.
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Career hit No. 2,267 for Altuve, who turns 35 tomorrow.
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@brianmctaggart New MLB rule: any game that cannot be played or completed because of weather in a city that doesn’t have a dome or retractable-roof stadium is a loss for the home team.
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Astros lose to the White Sox, 5-4, in 6 1/2 innings. Game has been called.
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Where’s this generation’s glorious hornsmith to delight us all as this sweet bastard once did?
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@elonmusk @DOGE @DavidSacks For what it’s worth for my small opinion, you should not stop with doge until the corruption and censorship empire is totally eliminated and extirpated from the US government. The people responsible for these crimes should be put to a grand jury and indicted.
@KonstantinKisin
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@elonmusk @DOGE @DavidSacks And how will this benefit TSLA investors? You have already destroyed the brand. You had better have record profits, deliveries, and margins by no later than one year from today, April 27, 2026. You got your President, so the time or whining and excuses is over.
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Tesla's Automotive Gross Margin Excluding Regulatory Credits dropped to 12.5% in Q1 2025, its lowest in recent years.
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@Steven_Hyden Keep making the jokes as your city leads the way in allowing the country fall under tyrannical leadership. apple.news/AyXghF9OiTmWI1…
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(tbh that was literally my first thought after hearing the song lol)
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Have you heard about this? There's a new single by the world famous millennial pop star Lorde. It's called "What Was That." What was that — that's also what music critics said when they heard it!
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@brianmctaggart Will J.P. France be available in spite of Santana’s dehydration? hollywoodreporter.com/news/music-new…
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Astros manager Joe Espada said Dezenzo (thumb) is better and should start tomorrow.
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