Julian

I'm subletting my room in the Vibe Tower, our TPOT London group house! It's warm, south-facing, v close to Whitechapel Stn, has a double bed and desk Currently available between 11-31 Dec and 4 Jan-28 Feb for as long or as short as you like rates are 30GBP/night with friend and long stay discounts Message me for details, pics etc

@DrellLabs you can lift more weight with hip thrusts than with deadlifts?

@julianboolean_ Depends on level of specific training. For most lifters, hip thrusts are higher

logically speaking, deadlifts have to be the best whole body exercise, because you can lift more weight deadlifting than any other way

@TylerAlterman just tested @nascentwisp on "what is the Schelling point of the entire world?" with no context ... aand he said "New York" ✅

I’m surprised I’ve never heard a rationalist describe NYC as “the Schelling point of the entire world”

@babarganesh With the same weight?

@julianboolean_ well, i don’t know. i can do fewer heavy deadlifts than heavy squats.

@nascentwisp *ducks*

I bought this nose clip to use when washing my hair upside down however, I tragically failed to consider: fighting finger

@gptbrooke omg

What do we think chat should I try to get her to come to vibecamp

I just gave a guest lecture on vibecamp to @ludwinpeerye’s digital marketing class and it was wild hahaha No one knew about rationality or had heard the term x-risk, completely different cultural bubbles But it was fun to pitch them on sidestepping traditional marketing tactics

@NunoSempere @visakanv omg it never occured to me to grate a tomato

Take two loaves of bread, toast them, rub garlic into them, pour olive oil evenly, rub the two loaves together. Split a tomato in half and grate it using a cheese grater, then place the grated tomato over the loaves of bread, add salt and oregano, optionally cheese, lettuce or some cured meats

my routine these days is i wake up and drop my kid off at preschool and get home to do some writing, but i keep forgetting to get breakfast and end up crashing like a fool. what are your favorite no-brainer mom/dad breakfasts? after the classic peanut butter sandwich

could you give an example of a >$10m decision for which it would be useful to hire a superforecaster? my suspicion is that such things are too high dimensional to successfully communicate all your desiderata to a forecaster and then identify the correct binary factual questions to forecast on but idk, haven't made such a decision

And just to dwell on this a moment. As we have seen from the Metaculus tournament, when I put my mind to it, I am a world class forecaster. My colleagues at the Swift Centre are too. And @MWStory runs a tight ship. But hire @XriskFYI if you want. But I don't get how people don't hire forecasters with testable track records on key decisions. If you have a $10m+ decision, I think this if fundamentally different than standard consultants.

@amelapay 4/3

@diviacaroline @HormoneHangover in-between proposal: fit them with a ball-and-chain :)

@HormoneHangover And no one seems to think twice about kids buckled into strollers, which are far more restrictive!

I think people just don’t understand toddlers. All it takes is one impulsive dash into the road to ruin everyone’s life forever. It’s not necessary for a lot of kids but it seems totally reasonable to me

lots of super-interesting vaccine details here: - virus-like particles vs isolated epitopes - patches vs injections - immune organoid models from discarded human tonsils - hep C vs HIV as immune-evading viruses

@sadmoonanalog it was a weird way to phrase it tho actually that whole article was very strange, i wonder if tyler was just trying to go full contrarian

@sadmoonanalog yeah

@michelleakin ikr, normally i'd feel super defensive and wary but his style is so wholesome

@julianboolean_ RIGHT?! usually i hate when a stand-up talks to me at a show but i would love it if he did

i don’t think i have ever enjoyed anyone’s crowd work as much as jeff arcuri’s. occasionally, i come across some comic doing crowd work and its a really funny clip, but inevitably when i go to their page to see more, it’s a lot of duds. there’s a subtle art to being able to do it well, consistently. i think one of the key things that jeff brings to the table is this jovial curiosity. he seems genuinely delighted by any contribution from his audiences. some comics relate to the audience as an impediment or as the butt of the joke, but jeff relates to them as his partners. he brings a level of relatedness that i find is rare among standups. it’s no wonder his whole tour this year is sold out.

@michelleakin > jovial curiosity. he seems genuinely delighted by any contribution from his audiences. wow yeah, reminds me of this tweet (possibly sasha chapin) about how people instantly fall in love with responsiveness

@michelleakin that was awesome

this is my favorite one. it’s a bit longer but i just love how he interacts with these ladies SO much, and it has a great payoff

@DaystarEld the solution is clearly to make your jokes more illegible

I mean, we exist in a society? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ No one's at fault for this dynamic imo, and I get being frustrated by it, but I think it's fairly reasonable that just putting on a jester outfit doesn't stop people from caring about the effects of speech, even assuming 0% earnest posts.

@DaystarEld me too

My most long-standing irrational alief is that all the people I like could (should?) be friends. I long ago got enough evidence to not *believe* it anymore! But seeing two people I like fight and *feeling* "hey guys, come on, we can all get along, right?" is very persistent.

@StillTr05207382 thanks, will read

@julianboolean_ Counterpoint: gwern.net/doc/psychology…

i unironically think science would progress faster if we banned computerized statistical inference not having to run nonsensical t-tests and z-tests and p-values and whatever would free people up to actually look at raw data and come up with experiments that can actually do strong inference