Tan Gera, CFA

Friday is the single most important day of this market cycle so far. $13.5 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Deribit. The max pain level is $75,000. Bitcoin is currently trading $4,000 below that. There is a significant gamma wall at $75K, meaning a move above it could trigger a self-reinforcing squeeze. On the same day: the SEC faces a deadline on 91 pending crypto ETF applications covering 24 tokens. And potential Islamabad peace talks between the US and Iran are being pushed for Friday. Geopolitical resolution, regulatory catalysts, and derivatives positioning all converging on one day. This is inside the full weekly breakdown in the Sovereign Collective. Join free. Link in bio.

Tuesday's Flash PMI data gave a reading the Fed cannot ignore. Manufacturing came in at 52.4, above the 50 expansion line and above consensus. New orders rising at the fastest pace since October 2025. Services came in at 51.1. An 11-month low. Missing consensus. Employment falling for the first time in over a year. S&P Global's chief economist summarized it as 'slower growth and rising inflation.' Their model puts Q1 annualized GDP at roughly 1%. That is the stagflation definition the Fed has been trying to avoid naming. The PMI data named it.

Strategy just announced a $42 billion capital raising program. $21 billion in common stock. $21 billion in preferred equity. Stated goal: 1 million Bitcoin by year end. That requires purchasing roughly 5,700 BTC every week for the rest of 2026. For context on scale: there are approximately 450 new Bitcoin mined per day. Strategy's weekly target exceeds four days of total global mining output. The mechanism they are using to buy Bitcoin is now larger than the mechanism that creates it.

The US just transmitted a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran through Pakistani intermediaries. The plan covers sanctions relief, nuclear rollback, IAEA monitoring, missile limits, and shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz. Two Pakistani officials, an Egyptian official, and a Gulf diplomat confirmed Iran received the document. Iran is reviewing it. Negotiations are still being publicly denied by Tehran while happening privately through every available channel. Brent crude dropped below $100 for the first time in weeks on that news this morning. The market is telling you it believes something is moving.

Gold is down roughly 22% from its peak while a war is actively escalating. The mechanism… - Oil above $100 drives inflation expectations. - Inflation expectations push real yields higher. - Rising real yields make gold less attractive because it pays no coupon. - A stronger dollar suppresses global demand. Bitcoin is down roughly 3 to 4% from last Monday. Gold is down 22% from its March peak. For the second consecutive conflict week, Bitcoin has outperformed gold and equities on a relative drawdown basis. That is a data point worth sitting with. The full weekly breakdown is live inside the Sovereign Collective, our free community. Link in bio.

Strategy bought 1,031 BTC last week. The week before: 22,337 BTC. March purchases in order: 3,015. Then 17,994. Then 22,337. Then 1,031. The deceleration is sharp. Last week's purchase was funded entirely through Class A stock sales, not preferred equity. That is a change in the capital structure they have been using. 762,099 BTC total. Average cost of $75,694. At current prices, roughly $4.5 billion in unrealized losses. They are still buying. The conviction has not changed. The pace and funding mechanism are worth watching.

Powell said 'I don't know' 17 times in his press conference last week. Not 'we are monitoring the data.' Not 'the committee will assess incoming information.' I don't know. Seventeen times. That is a central banker telling you the truth about his situation. The Fed cannot cut because oil-driven inflation is accelerating. It cannot hike without crushing an economy already slowing. It is pinned. Monetary policy is frozen until the geopolitical picture clarifies. That is not a forecast. That is Powell's own words.

Hyperliquid's S&P 500 perpetual hit $100 million in 24-hour volume within days of launch. It is already a top-10 market on the platform. Of Hyperliquid's top 30 markets by volume, only 7 are now crypto pairs. The rest are oil, gold, silver, and traditional macro assets. During this conflict, oil derivatives on Hyperliquid traded over $5 billion in 72 hours. When traditional markets close, Hyperliquid stays open. That structural advantage is now showing up in the volume data. We breakdown exactly what this means for you inside the Sovereign Collective, our free community. The weekly analysis just dropped. Link in bio.

A single Truth Social post added $2 trillion to global equity markets yesterday. Then Iran denied everything. Most of it evaporated. $415 million in crypto liquidated in four hours. Shorts blown out 2-to-1 at the top. Longs caught on the reversal. Bitcoin swung $4,400 from low to high and back. The entire sequence took under 60 minutes. This is the market we are operating in. Every participant, whether they want to or not, is now a foreign policy analyst.

Michael Saylor posted 'The Orange March Continues' on Sunday with his Bitcoin tracker chart. He has posted this same signal before every Monday purchase in March. March 2: 3,015 BTC purchased. March 9: 17,994 BTC purchased. March 16: 22,337 BTC purchased. Their largest single-week buy of 2026. The size has increased each week. Strategy holds 761,068 BTC at a $75,696 average cost. At current prices, they are sitting on roughly $5.3 billion in unrealized losses. They are still buying. That is a framework, not a hype cycle.

Morgan Stanley filed an amended S-1 on Friday for the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust. Ticker: MSBT. To list on NYSE Arca. This is the first time a major US bank has filed directly for a spot Bitcoin ETF. Not through an asset management subsidiary. Not through a partnership. Through the bank itself. For context: Goldman, JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America have not done this. Morgan Stanley is first. And on the same Friday, Grayscale filed for a HYPE ETF to list on Nasdaq. Ticker: GHYP. The fourth competing application for a Hyperliquid ETF. The institutional pipeline into this space is not slowing down. Full breakdown inside the Sovereign Collective, our free community. Link in bio.

Gold fell roughly 10% last week while a war was actively escalating. The mechanism: oil above $100 triggers inflation expectations. Inflation expectations push real yields higher. Rising real yields make gold less attractive since it pays no coupon. A stronger dollar reduces global demand. The 10-year yield is at 4.41%. Markets now price a 12% probability of a rate hike this year. Gold does not fail as a safe haven when people are not afraid. It fails when the inflation channel created by the conflict overwhelms the fear bid. That is what is happening.

The February PPI data released Wednesday does not include any of the oil shock. The Iran strikes began February 28. February PPI covers February 1 to 28. The energy spike in oil, natural gas, and fuel started after that data was collected. The first inflation print that partially captures the shock is the March CPI, due mid-April. The first PPI print is also mid-April. The Fed is currently projecting PCE inflation at 2.7% for 2026. That projection was made with $90 oil data. Brent briefly hit $119 this week. The full picture of this inflation shock is not visible yet. That is the most important macro sentence of the week.

Five events that defined the week. Monday: Bitcoin hit $75,912. Strategy bought $1.57 billion in BTC. Relief rally. Wednesday: PPI came in at more than double expectations. Fed revised inflation forecast upward. Bitcoin fell 5%. Thursday: Iran struck Qatar LNG, Kuwait refinery, Saudi Aramco. Brent hit $119 intraday. Thursday afternoon: Netanyahu pledged to stop striking energy infrastructure. Bessent floated unsanctioning Iranian oil. Oil fell back to $108. Friday: Bitcoin holding $71,000. Fear and Greed at 11. Whale wallets accumulating. We break down everything you need to know for the week ahead in our full weekly outlook dropping inside the Sovereign Collective on Monday. Join free before then to get ahead of next week. Link in bio.

Gold's worst week since February 1983. It fell while a war was actively escalating. The reason: rising real yields and a strengthening dollar overwhelmed the safe-haven bid. When the bond market reprices inflation risk, yields go up, and gold goes down despite the geopolitical fear premium. Bitcoin is down about 3% on the week. Gold is down roughly 7%. These are not the relative performances most people expected from a week that included a Fed meeting, four central bank holds, an energy shock, and Gulf strikes.

Brent crude oil spiked above $112. Iran struck Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility, Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, and Saudi Aramco's Samref refinery in Yanbu overnight. European natural gas spiked 24% in a single session after the Qatar LNG attack. Ras Laffan handles roughly 20% of global LNG exports. The Hormuz escort coalition is still not ready. No ceasefire is imminent. The February PPI data released yesterday does not include any of this. March data will.

Yesterday the Fed held rates at 3.50 to 3.75%. The vote was 11-1. The dot plot still shows one cut for 2026. That is not the story. February PPI came in at +0.7% month-over-month versus +0.3% expected. More than double the consensus. Year-over-year at 3.4% versus 3.0% expected. That data covers February. The Iran strikes began February 28. The oil shock has not hit the inflation numbers yet. Powell said inflation progress was not as much as he had hoped. That was his version of a hawkish statement. Bitcoin dropped 5% from $74,000 to roughly $70,500 after the announcement. The 8-day winning streak is gone.

Tomorrow is four central banks in one day. Bank of Japan. ECB. Bank of England. Swiss National Bank. All expected to hold. But the ECB's case is the most remarkable shift. Before the Iran war, the debate was how many more cuts to make. Now futures markets are pricing rate hikes by July. The Bank of England was pricing 80 to 86% probability of a March cut just three weeks ago. That collapsed to under 20%. The RBA already hiked 25bp on Monday to 4.10%. First G10 central bank to hike in response to the conflict.

The January FOMC vote was 10-2. Two governors dissented in favor of a cut. Since then: oil hit $119, payrolls went negative by 92,000, GDP was revised to 0.7%, and the Strait of Hormuz closed. The two dissenters who wanted to cut in January are now making their case in a world that has gotten significantly harder for the inflation side of the mandate. The positioning coming out of today will matter far more than the rate itself. You can this exact analysis and more inside the Sovereign Collective, our free community. Link in bio.

Something worth watching beyond the rate decision today. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.20%, elevated, while gold is sitting just below $5,000. Normally a war causes a flight to safety into Treasuries, which pushes yields down and gold up. What is happening instead: yields are rising alongside gold. Bond markets are repricing inflation risk, not safety. Safe haven demand is flowing to gold, not government debt. That is a stagflation signal from the bond market itself.