Anton Gerashchenko@Gerashchenko_en
Russia is striking Kharkiv more often and with increasing intensity. Reasons for that:
◾️ Russia has not solved its problems on the frontlines. Our soldiers are in dire conditions, but they hold the defense in Kharkiv region and inflict colossal losses to the enemy;
◾️ The Kremlin wants to achieve humanitarian crisis and panic in Kharkiv;
◾️ Ukraine cannot drive away Russian aviation and reach the rocket launchers on the ground because they are on the territory of the Russian Federation.
🔹 How the situation may change:
◾️ Until now, the main direction for the Russian army has been the Donetsk region;
◾️ Kharkiv and (potentially) Sumy direction was seen as a way to distract and disperse the AFU forces;
◾️ but it is in Kharkiv that the enemy has a colossal advantage.
And it is as follows:
‼️ Ukraine is not allowed to strike Russian territory with Western weapons.
This is a huge dilemma for Ukraine:
⚡️ The more Western long-range means the Ukrainian army gets, the more reasons the Russians have to shift their focus to Kharkiv. This is how they can quietly amass troops and attack from the air without us being able to strike back.
◾️In Donbas, any enemy unit and its rear and logistics can be reached at a depth of up to 160 km, and even further in Crimea. But to the north of Kharkiv, it is only 20-25 km.
◾️ Over the border, the Russian army can be attacked with a very limited arsenal of means.
◾️ Our troops can use all means against the Russians only in a 25 km stretch, and all logistics of the Russians are de facto protected by the political decisions of the Western partners.
In Kharkiv now, Shahed drones and missiles are hitting everywhere. About 400 thousand people live in the most dangerous zone. These are residential areas.
🔹 What is happening now:
◾️ Russians are trying to spread panic among these hundreds of thousands of people;
◾️ Kharkiv residents are not panicking and Kharkiv stands tall. This allows less resources from other areas to be brought in for defense than would otherwise be necessary;
◾️ The more stable Kharkiv is, the more Ukrainian forces can be directed to Donbas and Zaporizhzhia. The opposite is true as well;
◾️ Russians will not be able to seize Kharkiv. But they will be able to make people's lives there unbearable and gradually destroy the city.
‼️ So, there needs to be a change in political attitudes in the West.
It's about two things:
1️⃣ Perrmission to strike Russian territory, at least at a distance of 100 km.
2️⃣ Air defense and Western aviation as part of air defense. If Russian aviation is driven away from Kharkiv, then even in conditions of missile fire, the city will be a pillar of defense. And the Russians will achieve nothing.
Now, the AFU resembles a boxer with his hands tied behind his back.
Ukraine's hands must be untied for us to be able to defend ourselves!